Its crazy to be sitting here 48-60 hours from an event and have a difference of 10 inches between models and its not due to a warm nose.
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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Broken024
Member
Brick makes his own snow
Avalanche
Member
Then came the morning (mourning)
nam will fold here at 18z most likely. at least upstate to clt don't have to worry about a warm nose and can hope we get precip 75-100 miles north to get some flakes and get our 3rd trace of the season, nice!
I just don't see how both the NAM and GFS can be that wrong. I mean, the Euro isn't even close, in any way, shape or form. I will worry more if the NAM and GFS start trending away, but man if that's the case, I am never looking at those two models again!
It seems like normally the ECMWF shows massive totals and the NAM brings us to reality with the warm nose. With many recent winter storms like January 2016/2017, the ECMWF struggled with p-type by showing snow instead of sleet/ZR. I'm not sure about the ECMWF in this case.
can't remember whose signature it was but it read "if a model shows snow in the south past 48hrs, don't believe it!"
good advice.
good advice.
Avalanche
Member
Hope this failure doesn't turn Brick into a pessimist. I enjoy his relentless quest for optimism.
I've seen the NAM miss at this range plenty of times. But the Euro, even though it aint what it used to be, is probably not out to lunch here...at least not THAT out to lunch. Kind of already know how this is going to end. Hopefully, we at least get one or two more runs of the NAM to keep it interesting.
Also ask yourself, can the Euro really be that wrong? Something is about to bust bad.
Yeah, my goal was to get NAM'd...and we've been NAM'd 4 runs in a row. About all you can hope for around here.
Avalanche
Member
Already thought of negative abbreviations the NAM could stand for.
Goodbye
Avalanche
Member
Come on man, certainly there'll be another cold push and Alberta clipper diving down before Spring.
Brent
Member
I wish yall luck but I have been burned by the NAM too many times
I agree. Question is, which one? And how bad? I swear all this model madness is giving me anxiety. I think all of us could benefit from a Zanax or some alcohol at this juncture.
Avalanche
Member
Sprite, house Gin, and a splash of sour. Old school Tom Collins.
It's funny....if the Euro was on top of the NAM right now we would be lamenting the inevitable north trend inside 60 hours.
That actually sounds good. Might have one tonight. That or a strong imperial IPA! Probably going to need it for tonight's model suit.
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