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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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I’m cliff diving. Latest stuff shows far NE NC missing out. NWS Wakefield has me at a 9% chance to see .1” of snow. Good luck to everyone south of me!
 
I'd lean toward the Euro being wrong at least on amount of precip, but who knows on other factors. It might end up staying south or who knows where it goes.

Why? It's been the year to be soaking wet. There's already been a couple cases where you had to wait until 12z of the day of the event or just look out the window if you're an Euro thumper.

I understand being conservative though. Right now I'd probably just be saying 1-3" in some areas in NC with the possibility of it being more, stay tuned.
 
Which is essentially what it’s past couple runs have been. There is pretty good model agreement with the globals. The NAM’s...well are the NAM’s, which we all know.
GFS has gone from lakes cutter to suppressed to NC snowstorm since the storm was picked up last week..so you can maybe see why you wouldn’t want a GFS/NAM combo as your snowstorm selling point
 
Strongly rooting for the WRF triplets...I’ve always been a big believer in that model suite 130C2DC1-5AC3-4A1B-AD68-D54C5084380F.gif
 
Kind of getting this vibe.

My money would be on just south of PGV.

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Wasn't there a huge NW shift late with the overrunning precip with that one? I recall being shocked by the totals in areas like New Bern, which received 10". I'm pretty sure forecasts were way underdone. It was a little frustrating to miss out in GSO, but then we got hammered by a great storm the following day so it was all good.
 
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