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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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SD said:
Yeah idk what happened with the new euro upgrade but the op hates precipitation it was way too dry all summer and its been in the lower 25% of the mean most of the winter. Rarely is it ever equal to the mean or in the top 50%
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I was wondering how it has done with all the precip we have had since November. Doesn't sound like it has done good at all. Makes me feel better about it being out to lunch this time. I wonder how the NAM has compared with the getting the amount of precip right.
 
Last 4 runs of the EPS....looks like ensemble spread is shrinking. Was probably the worst EPS run member wise in a couple of days.

EPS.gif
 
Huge red flags here. NWS at morehead city putting tons of eggs in the euro basket.

Today`s forecast leans toward the
ECMWF for a couple of reasons:

1.) The deterministic ECMWF and the EPS (Euro ensembles) are in
strong agreement, with the ECMWF being the most stable solution
the past few runs. The EPS probability of 1" of snow or greater
has been around 45-50% for the last few runs.

2.) The GFS ensembles average a bit lower than their
deterministic counterpart, and in fact are close to the ECMWF
and its members.

Have put snowfall accumulations in the grids, although even then
this is under the ECMWF solution due to expected warm surface
temperatures which should initially melt the snow (apart from
grassy surfaces and higher elevations) and the fact that coastal
winter storms like this generally feature SLRs well below 10:1.
For now, show generally under an inch for interior zones with
lower amounts towards the coast. It should be emphasized this
forecast is fluid and will be closely monitored, but at this
time it does not appear to be a high-impact event.
 
Poimen said:
3K NAM is on board, too, though it appears faster than the 32K.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
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Check out the Lift in the DGZ for kville at hours 57 and 60 on the 3k. Plus Below freezing for the whole column! Bout to get fun for us.
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven't checked any soundings or maps yet, but if the NAM has a warm nose, then you can almost take that to the bank every time. Wouldn't be surprised to see that start to get established and trend stronger, which sucks.
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Yea it sucks we’ve seen this a million times, and we have all day tomorrow to watch it jump further.
DopplerWx said:
nam has a warm nose from hr 50-60 for clt while much of the precip moves through, and it even gets stronger from hr 54 or so on. this looks to be a sleet storm most likely for charlotte with token flakes on the back end. nam showing a warm nose like this and you can take it to the bank.
View attachment 35189
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yep hard to ignore the writing on the wall it’ll jump north a few more times before Thursday if you’re on the edge of the snow line now you’ll be lucky to see sleet come verification.
 
if you think this doesn't end up a sleet storm for most of the board you haven't been tracking storms in this area long. we have seen this before many, many times.
 
I’m very thankful I was able to get my almost 4in last weekend. Hope you NC guys get some which looks like a lock at this point. I feel bad for the SC guys y’all can’t catch a break.


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