Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

[Clem282340]

His pattern recognition is good. He jumped on this one last weak and didn’t waiver when models began jumping around. He knows these setups tend to produce for us. Big high pressure x strung out wave pushed south = increased snow chances. He’s a smart guy

Why wasn’t there much more snow in the upstate on that 18z nam run is it to warm

 

[KyloG]

What are the odds the 0z NAM holds....I’m going 23%.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Why wasn’t there much more snow in the upstate on that 18z nam run is it to warm

85 is the dividing line when the cold isn’t entrenched before a storm. I wish I could provide you with reasoning but that’s just the way it is with sprawling high pressure west of the mountains

 

[SD]

What are the odds the 0z NAM holds....I’m going 23%.

Under

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What are the odds the 0z NAM holds....I’m going 23%.

100%

 

[Clem282340]

100%

Do you think the 3k nam does better with the temperature profile better than 12k

 

[Metwannabe]

Rah NWS may end up being correct, they obviously know what they are talking about, most of the time, but the eps is an outlier? Did I miss something here, I guess compared to the GFS it's an outlier b/c unless I missed it the CMC and it's ens, the ICON (which I know they don't really use) and the NAM show same thing

Part of their AFD....
If there is an opportunity for phasing of sufficiently deep moisture/omega
and cold air, it would be north and east of the Triangle, which is where the
outlier EPS solutions lie..

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Do you think the 3k nam does better with the temperature profile better than 12k

Hard to say. 12k has performed well this year

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 34977

Just need that sweet spot a little farther NW.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice increase on this SREF run

 

[$alt]

My interest is slightly increasing to bring this thing back to CAE like many days ago, slow but steady. Bullseye far out bad, bullseye 24 hours good.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I personally think ATL still in play here. The NAM giving hope. The RGEM will save us.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

My interest is slightly increasing to bring this thing back to CAE like many days ago, slow but steady. Bullseye far out bad, bullseye 24 hours good.

South trend in the works?

 

[DopplerWx]

sleet for clt, would be typical. waste our qpf on sleet from a last minute warm nose.

 

[smast16]

Not in the sweet spot, but can I cash out now with my 6"?

 

[pcbjr]

 

[$alt]

South trend in the works?

Im wish casting a low to pop up in the gulf and the damn southern stream to slow down a bit, tbh.

 

[KyloG]

How long before we get the “JB says it’s coming north” post.

 

[pcbjr]

How long before we get the “JB says it’s coming north” post.

JB says it’s coming north

There. Done ... ?

 

[Weatherlover92]

I personally think ATL still in play here. The NAM giving hope. The RGEM will save us.


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If it was 6-12hrs slower that would possibly make a world of difference. We need this to a Thu night/Fri morning deal. I think back to that Euro run a few days back that slammed the I-20 corridor in AL/GA with snow, but I don’t remember the timeframe. I just don’t see that happening though. At least the NAM gives us some token snow showers so there’s that I guess.