smast16
Member
I really want to go into weenie mode, but i have that lump in the back of my throat that i'm going to be that guy...
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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
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I really want to go into weenie mode, but i have that lump in the back of my throat that i'm going to be that guy...
Thor
Member
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Woohoo! I know my location is set as Raleigh, but technically, I'm halfway between Wilson and Raleigh so I'm also kinda ENC guy too.
Downeastnc
Member
Maybe living on the eastern side of the county will pay off a bit this time around lol....I get at least 1" on pretty much every model now....
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, I'm out for MBY. Wish you guys out east all the best, and this thing turns the corner.
Clearly it’s looking like “make-up March” is inbound !!!
Cadi40
Member
I’m not feeling super confident for snowfall IMBY in Charlotte however it may trend better!
you want to be in the bullseye 84hrs out? if we were i'd be scared to death and telling the mountains and tenn to enjoy their snow.
Exactly. I understand that people are stoked to see there backyard in the bullseye... but we should ALL know better at this juncture. 97% of the time the NW trend will occur. Frankly, if I was anywhere near the bullseye at this moment, my hopes would be getting squashed.
SnowNiner
Member
If this were a moisture laden low in the gulf rounding the corner I'd say no. NW trend is real and the cold push/eastern trough is usually overmodeled. However this is not that kind of event for the southern piedmont. It's a very flat flow overrunning setup where I just don't believe the nw trend comes in to play. We're hoping on un-modeled dynamics to blossom precip at the last minute and all modeling to be wrong. I just don't buy it.
I'm more excited about this one than I have been all winter but that's not saying much. With how awful this winter has been for RDU I would honestly be satisfied if we can somehow get a dusting and avoid a measurable snow-free winter.
Downeastnc
Member
I feel like at the least we see snow, and probably manage to cover the ground even RDU to the coast.....as for total amounts I would be hesitant to even guess, these setups can have little streaks where it really hammers down surrounded by areas that get little real accumulation....still a general 1ish" event seems almost likely at this point for a lot of central/eastern NC.....
So, pretty close, actually.
The Euro has been pretty steady, though it has inched the precip a little north, if you take the net of the trend over the last 2 days. At this point, unless there is something severely missing from all the models, any widespread distribution of more than an inch or maybe two seems very unlikely. The latest CMC put the nail in that coffin. The flow is too flat...we don't have a strongly consolidated wave, and we don't have much interaction of the energy we do have between the streams. We have to HOPE that the weak energy can orient itself just enough to optimize lift over the area. Looks like a very light event at best, for the majority of spots that get precipitation. That's better than a sharp stick in the eye, if we can manage it.
Why won’t it let me die in peace?
Cadi40
Member
Can Charlotte please have its turn? Raleigh scored big during December 2018 while I got about a quarter of an inch...
I haven't seen more than a light dusting of snow IMBY in 4 years, so I need to get mine.
The individual 12z EPS members are actually sexier than expected.
Cadi40
Member
Sure about that? If you lived in Durham during that event it looks like you were in the bullseye almost.I haven't seen more than a light dusting of snow IMBY in 4 years, so I need to get mine.
I lived in Florida the last three winters.
If I lived here last winter, I'd would've gotten damn near a foot, though.
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