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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jon said:
For future reference it's better to admit fault than delete posts, whatever the reason. It's human nature to be wrong sometimes, certain people in current times would like us to forget that, but I digress.

The blizzard you've mentioned is insanely unlikely, even in your own words, a 1 in 200 year storm. What you have right now is a hunch, but spreading information on a storm like that which could literally put lives in danger is alarmist and morally wrong. It's fun to day dream about systems like that in current times, but just don't post them. Until you have evidence, more than SSTs, I'd agree with @Rain Cold with trying to approach it with more science. I don't think you're a troll, but there's a reason a lot of great meteorological minds aren't discussing a 1 in 200 year storm to end this likely record breaking HOT winter. In order to have a region wide system like that to dump feet, you would need deep cold, deep bone chilling cold. We'd be lucky to get sustained (more than 3 days) of climo normal temperatures at this point in this above normal winter.

These systems cannot be predicted without model guidance...they just can't. Remember, the large scale pattern supporting a large blizzard would likely show up before the actual system on NWP. That's what is so fun about pattern recognition...you get the ingredients of the main dish early, but there is no such pattern on any kind of seasonal or ensemble model. We know this to be 100% factual.
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Thanks for your thoughts, I'm working my hardest to approach things at a more scientific level with my predictions. I'm not trying to scare people at all with the storm that I'm predicting. I just like to think of my own predictions based from my own idea's, and I think a lot respect me for that. Maybe I will discover something new, I believe there are diverse/multiform ways to predict the weather, besides totally relaying on the models at face value.

I will be looking for evidence for this storm over the many upcoming days. I think there will be very deep cold air coming south eastward at the time the storm begins to to track just off shore of the Eastern US coast line. The reason why? well, as we know, the highest AO reading was off the charts (literally)...it will give eventually. I'm predicting that over the next 2 weeks, storm systems will cut. Snow events are more likely across the the Central Plains, the snow cover will be filling in over that area. Of course, there would be some moderation with temps, but the snow cover that I think will fill in over the Central Plains, thus of course will make the cold air mass not moderate as much as it progresses south and east. Due to storm system's cutting, I'm predicting that a far reaching boundary will set up some where down across the Caribbean, and thunder storms on the tail end of the boundary form, converging winds will spin this storm system up rapidly. CAPE values I think we be anywhere from 1000 to 1800 J kg -1...or possibly high as 2000 J kg -1.
 
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WxWatch said:
Thanks for your thoughts, I'm working my hardest to approach things at a more scientific level with my predictions. I'm not trying to scare people at all with the storm that I'm predicting. I just like to think of my own predictions based from my own idea's, and I think a lot respect me for that. Maybe I will discover something new, I believe there are diverse/multiform ways to predict the weather, besides totally relaying on the models at face value.

I will be looking for evidence for this storm over the many upcoming days. I think there will be very deep cold air coming south eastward at the time the storm begins to to track just off shore of the Eastern US coast line. The reason why? well, as we know, the highest AO reading was off the charts (literally)...it will give eventually. I'm predicting that over the next 2 weeks, storm systems will cut. Snow events are more likely across the the Central Plains, the snow cover will be filling in over that area. Of course, there would be some moderation with temps, but the snow cover that I think will fill in over the Central Plains, thus of course will make the cold air mass not moderate as much as it progress south and east. Due to storm system's cutting, I'm predicting that a far reaching boundary will set up some where down across the Caribbean, and thunder storms on the tail end of the boundary form, converging winds will spin this storm system up rapidly. CAPE values I think we be anywhere from 1000 to 1800 J kg -1...or possibly high as 2000 J kg -1.
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too late bro, I'm f'n scared
 
KyloG said:
Haven't looked at models in almost a week I think. Still see nothing has changed...GEFS doing GEFS things. How many times am I going to fall for this...

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It's different this time imo. It is getting colder much earlier (next week rather than waiting for near the end of the runs) and on all models. Also, the SER is much weaker. Also, +AAM trends! SERs don't like +AAM.
 
Poimen said:
So, we are going from a series of App/OH Valley runners to suppression. Am I right? If so, all you can do is laugh.
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Well if our 2020 mega blizznado is going to originate from Jamaica then it has be suppressed first....duh. ;)
 
metwannabe said:
Well if our 2020 mega blizznado is going to originate from Jamaica then it has be suppressed first....duh. ;)
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WxWatch said:
Thanks for your thoughts, I'm working my hardest to approach things at a more scientific level with my predictions. I'm not trying to scare people at all with the storm that I'm predicting. I just like to think of my own predictions based from my own idea's, and I think a lot respect me for that. Maybe I will discover something new, I believe there are diverse/multiform ways to predict the weather, besides totally relaying on the models at face value.

I will be looking for evidence for this storm over the many upcoming days. I think there will be very deep cold air coming south eastward at the time the storm begins to to track just off shore of the Eastern US coast line. The reason why? well, as we know, the highest AO reading was off the charts (literally)...it will give eventually. I'm predicting that over the next 2 weeks, storm systems will cut. Snow events are more likely across the the Central Plains, the snow cover will be filling in over that area. Of course, there would be some moderation with temps, but the snow cover that I think will fill in over the Central Plains, thus of course will make the cold air mass not moderate as much as it progresses south and east. Due to storm system's cutting, I'm predicting that a far reaching boundary will set up some where down across the Caribbean, and thunder storms on the tail end of the boundary form, converging winds will spin this storm system up rapidly. CAPE values I think we be anywhere from 1000 to 1800 J kg -1...or possibly high as 2000 J kg -1.
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Predicting something and then going to look for evidence to support it is bassachwards.
 
Against my better judgement, I’m issuing a snow watch for the 85 corridor between Feb 21 and Feb 25. I’m also including those along I95 in SC. I repeat, Columbia SC is in play here. Right now I’m liking the idea of a weak wave traversing well to the south with cold air in place.
 
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