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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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WxWatch said:
Hey @GaWx what is your honest thoughts about my blizzard prediction?
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It is entertaining but not wise due to the 1 in 100 year frequency for this kind of storm and especially after you earlier this winter predicted a big winter storm that didn't pan out. I don't see how anyone can possibly have the knowledge to outrightly predict such a a storm. If you instead said something like there's a higher than normal chance accompanied by the reasons, that would be much more reasonable. But to each his own. It's your choice. If you stick with it, I sure hope you somehow end up right! But I'd lay off the prediction if I were you and wouldn't push it on FB either.

That being said, I, myself have been predicting a cold 2-3 weeks in the SE between 2/20 and 3/20. Also, I hope for a major winter storm within that period, And I admit that I've been getting kind of weenie lately about late winter cold prospects, including posting cold CFS runs.. But that's not anywhere near the same as predicting a blizzard of the century.
 
GaWx said:
It is entertaining but not wise due to the 1 in 100 year frequency for this kind of storm and especially after you earlier this winter predicted a big winter storm that didn't pan out. I don't see how anyone can possibly have the knowledge to outrightly predict such a a storm. If you instead said something like there's a higher than normal chance accompanied by the reasons, that would be much more reasonable. But to each his own. It's your choice. If you stick with it, I sure hope you somehow end up right! But I'd lay off the prediction if I were you and wouldn't push it on FB either.

That being said, I, myself have been predicting a cold 2-3 weeks in the SE between 2/20 and 3/20. Also, I hope for a major winter storm within that period, And I admit that I've been getting kind of weenie lately about late winter cold prospects, including posting cold CFS runs.. But that's not anywhere near the same as predicting a blizzard of the century.
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Thanks for your honest thought about my prediction. I'm not sure if you seen my post a few days ago; I mentioned that the storm I'm predicting is a 1 out of a 200 year storm. The last severe blizzard about 200 years ago was, "The Great Snow Storm" of 1831 according to accounts. My question is, the official weather recording has only been going on for 150 years now. We only have official records to go by in a 150 year period. What I'm trying to get here is that, just because there's no official records beyond the 150 year period, that doesn't mean that historical storms from the past beyond 150 years can't happen again in a similar way. It's uncanny of the timing between the '93 blizzard and the 1899 blizzard, 94 years apart. The 1831 blizzard is about 70 years apart from the 1899 blizzard. The '93 blizzard and the 1831 blizzard is about 200 years apart, 162 years to be exact. So, looking at it at a historical standpoint, the timing of these blizzards, this is one of the reasons why I'm predicting it to be a 1 out of 200 year storm. I'm not saying, hey a blizzard is going to happen for sure 100% based from the occurrences of these blizzards from past years; I'm using it as a reference to support my prediction of it being a 1 out of a 200 year storm.
 
WxWatch said:
Thanks for your honest thought about my prediction. I'm not sure if you seen my post a few days ago; I mentioned that the storm I'm predicting is a 1 out of a 200 year storm. The last severe blizzard about 200 years ago was, "The Great Snow Storm" of 1831 according to accounts. My question is, the official weather recording has only been going on for 150 years now. We only have official records to go by in a 150 year period. What I'm trying to get here is that, just because there's no official records beyond the 150 year period, that doesn't mean that historical storms from the past beyond 150 years can't happen again in a similar way. It's uncanny of the timing between the '93 blizzard and the 1899 blizzard, 94 years apart. The 1831 blizzard is about 70 years apart from the 1899 blizzard. The '93 blizzard and the 1831 blizzard is about 200 years apart, 162 years to be exact. So, looking at it at a historical standpoint, the timing of these blizzards, this is one of the reasons why I'm predicting it to be a 1 out of 200 year storm. I'm not saying, hey a blizzard is going to happen for sure 100% based from the occurrences of these blizzards from past years; I'm using it as a reference to support my prediction of it being a 1 out of a 200 year storm.
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Please tell me more
 
WxWatch said:
Thanks for your honest thought about my prediction. I'm not sure if you seen my post a few days ago; I mentioned that the storm I'm predicting is a 1 out of a 200 year storm. The last severe blizzard about 200 years ago was, "The Great Snow Storm" of 1831 according to accounts. My question is, the official weather recording has only been going on for 150 years now. We only have official records to go by in a 150 year period. What I'm trying to get here is that, just because there's no official records beyond the 150 year period, that doesn't mean that historical storms from the past beyond 150 years can't happen again in a similar way. It's uncanny of the timing between the '93 blizzard and the 1899 blizzard, 94 years apart. The 1831 blizzard is about 70 years apart from the 1899 blizzard. The '93 blizzard and the 1831 blizzard is about 200 years apart, 162 years to be exact. So, looking at it at a historical standpoint, the timing of these blizzards, this is one of the reasons why I'm predicting it to be a 1 out of 200 year storm. I'm not saying, hey a blizzard is going to happen for sure 100% based from the occurrences of these blizzards from past years; I'm using it as a reference to support my prediction of it being a 1 out of a 200 year storm.
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Just curious why you delete missed call posts on FB? Also you canceled winter in Jan IIRC, and are now calling for a BECS? Bro, you need to pump the brakes...
 
Anyone remember that warm snowless winter we had years ag.... never mind. I thought I had been dreaming since December 1, 2018.
 
WxWatch said:
Come on guys, I don't want to be banned, and I'm not trolling the board. I'm seriously looking for signs of the blizzard that I'm predicting. And the ones that are saying I'm on drugs, should be ashamed for saying that to me. I'm absolutely not on drugs, I'm an intuitive, intelligent thinker.
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WxWatch said:
I know some will think I'm crazy for predicting a blizzard (lol) -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. My prediction is a presentiment. No, I am absolutely not on drugs; I'm just a very intelligent thinker. I think hurricane season will start super early this season, and the blizzard I'm predicting will be basically an early hurricane, but with snow -- a snowcane.
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Come on guys he has already told you why you need to believe him
 
WXinCanton said:
Just curious why you delete missed call posts on FB? Also you canceled winter in Jan IIRC, and are now calling for a BECS? Bro, you need to pump the brakes...
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I'm not going to lie; I do delete past predictions that did not turn out. Not all predictions do turn out. The reason of deletions is because, I don't want recent predictions to cause discombobulation. However, for now on, I'm going to leave my predictions up, as well as including a disclaimer with them. I did "cancel" winter back in January; I did so because I was annoyed that the pattern was crap.

Yes, I'm really predicting an east coast blizzard. So far this winter, the pattern has been basically the same, mild, rain and rain, some shots of cold air. I think we're going to see some significant changes within the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. So, things will have to give sooner or later. Do you, (or anyone) agrees to the saying, "the bottom is going to fall out!" Well, that's what I'm trying to get at in a sense.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not going to lie; I do delete past predictions that did not turn out. Not all predictions do turn out. The reason of deletions is because, I don't want recent predictions to cause discombobulation. However, for now on, I'm going to leave my predictions up, as well as including a disclaimer with them. I did "cancel" winter back in January; I did so because I was annoyed that the pattern was crap.

Yes, I'm really predicting an east coast blizzard. So far this winter, the pattern has been basically the same, mild, rain and rain, some shots of cold air. I think we're going to see some significant changes within the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. So, things will have to give sooner or later. Do you, (or anyone) agrees to the saying, "the bottom is going to fall out!" Well, that's what I'm trying to get at in a sense.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
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It sounds like much of your forecasting and modeling stems from emotions and feelings. Premonitions, visions, feeling it in your bones, calling Cleo really doesn't have a place in weather forecasting. It's fun to talk about in weatherland, but if you're really trying to be serious and get good at forecasting, you need a science-based approach. It's not wrong to incorporate instinct, insomuch as it is informed instinct. What I mean is that using science as a baseline, compounded with years of experience can lead you to conclude that, based on your observations over time, X is more likely to happen than what is being forecast by numerical guidance.

As it stands, you're wishing upon a star for something, which is no better than hoping Rudolph will save Christmas.
 
Rain Cold said:
It sounds like much of your forecasting and modeling stems from emotions and feelings. Premonitions, visions, feeling it in your bones, calling Cleo really doesn't have a place in weather forecasting. It's fun to talk about in weatherland, but if you're really trying to be serious and get good at forecasting, you need a science-based approach. It's not wrong to incorporate instinct, insomuch as it is informed instinct. What I mean is that using science as a baseline, compounded with years of experience can lead you to conclude that, based on your observations over time, X is more likely to happen than what is being forecast by numerical guidance.

As it stands, you're wishing upon a star for something, which is no better than hoping Rudolph will save Christmas.
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I believe him, I have already warned my neighbors and local government
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not going to lie; I do delete past predictions that did not turn out. Not all predictions do turn out. The reason of deletions is because, I don't want recent predictions to cause discombobulation. However, for now on, I'm going to leave my predictions up, as well as including a disclaimer with them. I did "cancel" winter back in January; I did so because I was annoyed that the pattern was crap.

Yes, I'm really predicting an east coast blizzard. So far this winter, the pattern has been basically the same, mild, rain and rain, some shots of cold air. I think we're going to see some significant changes within the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. So, things will have to give sooner or later. Do you, (or anyone) agrees to the saying, "the bottom is going to fall out!" Well, that's what I'm trying to get at in a sense.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
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For future reference it's better to admit fault than delete posts, whatever the reason. It's human nature to be wrong sometimes, certain people in current times would like us to forget that, but I digress.

The blizzard you've mentioned is insanely unlikely, even in your own words, a 1 in 200 year storm. What you have right now is a hunch, but spreading information on a storm like that which could literally put lives in danger is alarmist and morally wrong. It's fun to day dream about systems like that in current times, but just don't post them. Until you have evidence, more than SSTs, I'd agree with @Rain Cold with trying to approach it with more science. I don't think you're a troll, but there's a reason a lot of great meteorological minds aren't discussing a 1 in 200 year storm to end this likely record breaking HOT winter. In order to have a region wide system like that to dump feet, you would need deep cold, deep bone chilling cold. We'd be lucky to get sustained (more than 3 days) of climo normal temperatures at this point in this above normal winter.

These systems cannot be predicted without model guidance...they just can't. Remember, the large scale pattern supporting a large blizzard would likely show up before the actual system on NWP. That's what is so fun about pattern recognition...you get the ingredients of the main dish early, but there is no such pattern on any kind of seasonal or ensemble model. We know this to be 100% factual.
 
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