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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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0z GEFS, Mega Snow Storm '20 shows up again on a few members...SNOWCANE! I could be off on where the main storm develops...it just may form a bit further north in the tropics.
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Bham 99 said:
Have we ever had a snow storm originate near Jamaica??
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This may blow some minds, but US Weather Bureau records say that the great early Dec 1896 SE winter storm (6.2” at ATL) actually originated in the West Indies!! This is NOT a joke! It moved N from the West Indies up the E coast of FL and then it moved NE offshore the Carolina and VA coasts.

Below are two images from the 12/3/1896 Atlanta Constitution that I had copied some 20 or so years ago at the library. Note the references to the track that started in the West Indies. Also, note that it had to have had a tropical aspect based on the combo of that track and the fact that winds in S and E FL were so strong that “This storm has downed all the wires in the southern and eastern portions of Florida”!!

So, not to encourage Don, but his idea of a SE blizzard originating from a Caribbean hurricane in the middle of winter may not be as far fetched as it sounds since something like that did happen in December of 1896!

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GaWx said:
This may blow some minds, but US Weather Bureau records say that the great early Dec 1896 SE winter storm (6.2” at ATL) actually originated in the West Indies!! This is NOT a joke! It moved N from the West Indies up the E coast of FL and then it moved NE offshore the Carolina and VA coasts.

Below are two images from the 12/3/1896 Atlanta Constitution that I had copied some 20 or so years ago at the library. Note the references to the track that started in the West Indies. Also, note that it had to have had a tropical aspect based on the combo of that track and the fact that winds in S and E FL were so strong that “This storm has downed all the wires in the southern and eastern portions of Florida”!!

So, not to encourage Don, but his idea of a SE blizzard originating from a Caribbean hurricane in the middle of winter may not be as far fetched as it sounds since something like that did happen in December of 1896!

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interesting.. Chattanooga had a 14.3 inch storm total over 3 days... any 500 mb maps to support the Caribbean Sea connection?
 
SETNwx said:
interesting.. Chattanooga had a 14.3 inch storm total over 3 days... any 500 mb maps to support the Caribbean Sea connection?
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Of course, 500 mb maps don't exist that far back. And I'm not aware of any that were done as guesses after the fact.

Edit: @SETNwx, there is a daily weather map (the one for 12/2/1896) that shows the strong surface low on the coast of NE FL with an attendant very large area of precip (showing it then snowing at ATL, Montgomery, and Charlotte and almost to Chattanooga) after it had moved north from the Caribbean here:

https://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Collections/US-Daily-Weather-Maps
 
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GaWx said:
This may blow some minds, but US Weather Bureau records say that the great early Dec 1896 SE winter storm (6.2” at ATL) actually originated in the West Indies!! This is NOT a joke! It moved N from the West Indies up the E coast of FL and then it moved NE offshore the Carolina and VA coasts.

Below are two images from the 12/3/1896 Atlanta Constitution that I had copied some 20 or so years ago at the library. Note the references to the track that started in the West Indies. Also, note that it had to have had a tropical aspect based on the combo of that track and the fact that winds in S and E FL were so strong that “This storm has downed all the wires in the southern and eastern portions of Florida”!!

So, not to encourage Don, but his idea of a SE blizzard originating from a Caribbean hurricane in the middle of winter may not be as far fetched as it sounds since something like that did happen in December of 1896!

View attachment 33856

View attachment 33857
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The subtropical jet was much more active than normal in Dec 1896, considering that 1896-97 was a strong El Nino year.
 
WxWatch said:
I can understand that point of view, the time travel comment is funny, lol. Most of my predictions are theoretical predictions that are not grounded in realism. The AO is literally off of the charts, an all time record of +6.34. I think the cold air "dam" will be broken, and the severe cold pushes south and east at the time the storm begins tracking up off of the eastern coast...while a short wave undercuts the northern stream press and a phase occurs. The +AO can't keep increasing, it will give eventually.
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I think theoretical should be replaced with hypothetical. There's no science here, it's all made up scenarios.
 
WxWatch said:
Yes, I do think there will be tropical activity early this year, as well as an active hurricane season. The ENSO is neutral and has been for months now. The ENSO has influence on hurricane development/activity. When there is a neutral ENSO, there is typically above normal of tropical storm development.

Speaking of one in one thousand year storm. Official weather recording started taking place 150 years ago now. What about the weather beyond the official weather recording? How many severe blizzards were there really? nobody will truly know. The storm that I'm predicting is a 1 out of a 200 year storm -- based from accounts of a severe blizzard that occurred in 1831, about 200 years ago. But, if you personally think it would be a one in one thousand year storm, how do we really know it could be? since official weather recording started taking place about 150 years ago.
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Why would you post that storm forecast on social media? Seems like a major cry for attention. With absolutely no scientific basis it is pretty worthless IMO.
 
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