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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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accu35 said:
Lol, I was picking post above, but you are so strong in believing that a maga storm will happen that you almost have me convince
I really hope we see something in that nature before time runs out.
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I'm not trying to convince others to believe in my prediction, but if they want to support my prediction, by all means let them follow along...just saying in general. I am strongly believing in my prediction and I hope I am right. I'm not sure what others will think if my prediction comes true.
 
WxWatch said:
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
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Love it, but I’d like to see it go into the Gulf of Mexico and come across northern Florida
 
WxWatch said:
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
Click to expand...
Here’s what I’d like to see again,except that no one gets hurt of course:


During March 11 and 12, 1993, temperatures over much of the eastern United States began to drop as an arctic high pressure system built over the Midwest and Great Plains. Concurrently, an extratropical area of low pressure formed over Mexico along a stationary front draped west to east. By the afternoon of March 12, a defined airmass boundary was present along the deepening low. An initial burst of convective precipitation off the southern coast of Texas (facilitated by the transport of tropical moisture into the region) this presumably enabled initial intensification of the surface feature on March 12. Supported by a strong split-polar jet stream and a shortwave trough, the nascent system rapidly deepened.[6] The system's central pressure fell to 991 mbar (29.26 inHg) by 00:00 UTC on March 13. A powerful low-level jet over eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico enhanced a cold frontextending from the low southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Furthermore, the subtropical jet stream was displaced unusually far south, reaching into the Pacific Ocean near Central America and extending toward Honduras and Jamaica. Intense ageostrophic flow was noted over the southern United States, with winds flowing perpendicular to isobars over Louisiana.[6]

As the area of low pressure moved through the central Gulf of Mexico, a short wave trough in the northern branch of the jet stream fused with the system in the southern stream, which further strengthened the surface low. A squall linedeveloped along the system's cold front, which moved rapidly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida and Cuba.[6] The cyclone's center moved into north-west Florida early on the morning of March 13, with a significant storm surge in the northwestern Florida peninsula that drowned several people. This initially caused the storm to be a blizzard but also cyclonic.

Barometric pressures recorded during the storm were low. Readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida, and even lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England. Low pressure records for March were set in areas of twelve states along the Eastern Seaboard,[7] with all-time low pressure records set between Tallahassee and Washington, D.C.[8] Snow began to spread over the eastern United States, and a large squall line moved from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida and Cuba. The storm system tracked up the East Coast during Saturday and into Canada by early Monday morning. In the storm's wake, unseasonably cold temperatures were recorded over the next day or two in the Southeast.
 
Can’t believe I still have snow left. Now to watch the rain wash it away. Are there any signs of getting out of this rain/flood pattern any time soon? Can’t get my barn, house or anything even started. Such a mess!! Walking backwards instead of forward! GRIEF!
 

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Six Mile Wx said:
Here’s what I’d like to see again,except that no one gets hurt of course:


During March 11 and 12, 1993, temperatures over much of the eastern United States began to drop as an arctic high pressure system built over the Midwest and Great Plains. Concurrently, an extratropical area of low pressure formed over Mexico along a stationary front draped west to east. By the afternoon of March 12, a defined airmass boundary was present along the deepening low. An initial burst of convective precipitation off the southern coast of Texas (facilitated by the transport of tropical moisture into the region) this presumably enabled initial intensification of the surface feature on March 12. Supported by a strong split-polar jet stream and a shortwave trough, the nascent system rapidly deepened.[6] The system's central pressure fell to 991 mbar (29.26 inHg) by 00:00 UTC on March 13. A powerful low-level jet over eastern Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico enhanced a cold frontextending from the low southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Furthermore, the subtropical jet stream was displaced unusually far south, reaching into the Pacific Ocean near Central America and extending toward Honduras and Jamaica. Intense ageostrophic flow was noted over the southern United States, with winds flowing perpendicular to isobars over Louisiana.[6]

As the area of low pressure moved through the central Gulf of Mexico, a short wave trough in the northern branch of the jet stream fused with the system in the southern stream, which further strengthened the surface low. A squall linedeveloped along the system's cold front, which moved rapidly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Florida and Cuba.[6] The cyclone's center moved into north-west Florida early on the morning of March 13, with a significant storm surge in the northwestern Florida peninsula that drowned several people. This initially caused the storm to be a blizzard but also cyclonic.

Barometric pressures recorded during the storm were low. Readings of 976.0 millibars (28.82 inHg) were recorded in Tallahassee, Florida, and even lower readings of 960.0 millibars (28.35 inHg) were observed in New England. Low pressure records for March were set in areas of twelve states along the Eastern Seaboard,[7] with all-time low pressure records set between Tallahassee and Washington, D.C.[8] Snow began to spread over the eastern United States, and a large squall line moved from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida and Cuba. The storm system tracked up the East Coast during Saturday and into Canada by early Monday morning. In the storm's wake, unseasonably cold temperatures were recorded over the next day or two in the Southeast.
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The blizzard I'm predicting isn't going to be like that...in fact every severe winter storm are different. Each severe historical winter storm has their differences and severity. I'm thinking a trailing cold front will cause thunder storms in the Caribbean with converging winds.

In the mid term/long term, I think we'll see multiple late bloomers that form over the Gulf stream. Coastal regions and possibly further inland could have chances of frozen precipitation. I think this will be the case prior of the blizzard that I'm predicting. A cold front from on of those late bloomers would extend down into the Caribbean.
 
WxWatch said:
Here we go, first off, keep in mind what your about to read is not an official forecast nor an official prediction. This is not based off of no solid evidence from the models as of yet, but I'll be watching for some features on the models in the coming weeks. As I have said, I 'am indeed predicting a blizzard -- a 1 out of 200 year storm. The last historical snow storm about 200 years ago was the Great Snow Storm of 1831 that dumped snow from Georgia to Maine.

Onto my predictions for the Mega Snow Storm '20. I'm predicting that the storm will form south/south west south of Jamaica, roughly 17°N - 80°W. The storm develops from an area of thunder storms that move northeast from Honduras and Nicaragua. The Mega Snow Storm '20 will have hurricane characteristics. For a strong storm to develop over the ocean, there needs to be 3 main things --- warm water that's at least 80 degrees, there needs to be moist air (which will not be an issue) and there needs to be converging winds -- these 3 main things will be at play at the time the storm beings to develop.

The SSTs are above normal in the Caribbean, SSTs are in the lower 80s in the Caribbean. I think the storm system will track along the gulf stream, which the SSTs in the gulf stream are above normal as well. The above normal temps of the SSTs will fuel this storm just like a hurricane. According to my prediction, there will be prevailing winds from the ESE and from the west, converging winds that will spin this storm up. I also think there will be a phase, a short wave undercuts the northern stream -- the phase occurs off of the southeast coast. It's possible it could be a triple phase, if another short wave comes along in the southern stream...I don't know if there will be a triple phase.

SST Anomalies

View attachment 33752

Weather pattern: I think there will be a -EPO, +PNA with a PV lobe over the Upper Plains at the time of the storm, perhaps there will be a -AO as well. The strong storm will pull deep cold air on the northwestern and western side of the low -- snow will be in feet. On the map below, I also think there will be a weak Bermuda high. I know Bermuda highs can be concerning, cause it can cause south winds to warm the southeast. But in this case, I'm predicting that it would be a weak Bermuda high, and this Bermuda high will prevent the storm going out to sea. The time frame for this storm could be any where some time during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. That's all I have for my prediction for now.

View attachment 33754
Click to expand...
6a9f4f2b2e7f46459712d08d4ae273ad.jpg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Here’s my prediction. It’s a 3 day storm meaning it has been happening every 3 days for the past 3 months. Low forms somewhere near the gulf. Heavy rain. Everyone gets rain. Possibly northern Wilkes getting some light onset ice which will warrant it’s own separate thread title. We will focus on details when we get there. Anyway, this will most likely happen on the weekend. Thats where the uncertainty lies right now. Will it rain during the work week or on the weekend? My money is on the weekend. Details to be worked out later
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Boom shackalacka...hes on fire!!
 
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