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Misc Winter Whamby 2020, a New Decade

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Jessy89 said:
What’s the chances of a March blizzard?


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There is exactly a 0.00044189129474149% chance of a March blizzard

This is due to the fact that we see a storm of the century every century and it has been 27 years since the last blizzard with 73 years left. There are 31 days in March so that is 1/2263 chance of a blizzard in March. Then changing that to a percent is shown above.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I don’t think we are done. Bamwx gonna be angry.


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Winter is nowhere near over. I think the activity is really going to pick up around here during the last week of this month into early March.
NoSnowATL said:
b4dcfff3a424e2dba6706acf5a31a9f8.jpg


That look can’t be too warm can it? If correct.



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That MJO forecast is in weak phases, not much of an influence.

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Jessy89 said:
What’s the chances of a March blizzard?


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Well let's see, I am 55 years old and I have seen 2 true Blizzards here in March. I have seen many snows, but only 2 true blizzards (1980 and 1993). That puts the odds at 1/55 or about 1.8%. The odds of just getting snow are much higher.
 
Jessy89 said:
I bet severe weather season will be quite intense. Could be wrong though


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And very, very long. Probably last from end of February through most of August (although from June through August it will be primarily through MCS/derecho events) I think all of us will have property damage within the next 3 years because it is gonna be ugly!
 
cd2play said:
And very, very long. Probably last from end of February through most of August (although from June through August it will be primarily through MCS/derecho events) I think all of us will have property damage within the next 3 years because it is gonna be ugly!
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March 2008 outbreak was wild. Craziest 3 days ever when it comes to severe weather in my area.


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cd2play said:
And very, very long. Probably last from end of February through most of August (although from June through August it will be primarily through MCS/derecho events) I think all of us will have property damage within the next 3 years because it is gonna be ugly!
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Thank you, Nostradamus!

Now, oh great one, please tell me the next winning lottery numbers. ;)
 
It would be fitting end for this winter if we were to have a severe weather/flooding threat on Leap Day through March 1
 
Jessy89 said:
What’s the chances of a March blizzard?


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I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 200 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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WxWatch said:
I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 250 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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If you’re right, you will become a legend in my book.
 
WxWatch said:
I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 250 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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I like your prediction very much. But would it affect the southeast or more likely the northeast


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WxWatch said:
I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 250 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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Click to expand...

giphy.gif




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WxWatch said:
I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 200 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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I'm game for your very bold prediction. Hope you're right!❄☃
 
WxWatch said:
I may get huge criticism for this, but I'm actually predicting a east coast blizzard that I think could occur sometime during the tail end of this month or by March 10th. I'm putting a long time window on it, because at this time, I'm not sure yet when exactly when the storm could form.

The blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that storm was a freak of nature. The blizzard that I'm predicting is a 1 out of 200 year storm. Look at it this way, if the blizzard of '93 was a 1 out of 100 year storm, that puts the last severe historical winter storm back in 1893 (give or take). Matter of fact, there was a severe blizzard in 1899. So the blizzard of '93 was indeed a 1 out of 100 year storm (1993-1899= 94 years to be exact.)

It's a start of a new decade -- 2020, take 200 years off, that puts the year back to 1820. There was indeed another severe snow storm, known as the "Great Snow Storm." Even though that's not exactly 200 years, it's 189 years to be exact. The "Great Snow Storm" brought snow from Georgia to Maine!

The blizzard that I'm predicting, I think it may be more severe than the blizzard of '93.

This will be continued...

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Man if we get a blizzard for 90% of the entire southeast and east coast I'm never complaining about not getting snow again
 
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