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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

NoSnowATL said:
gfs_asnow_seus_65.png
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If I had to guess we will see plenty of this eye candy this winter. Just not for real.
 
JHS said:
Yep, this is over here. Look for exceptional drought to come in here before long. This winter and next summer will be just like 1985-1986 when we had perhaps the worst drought ever in the southeast. So much for El Nino and an above normal winter for snowfall. I'll say it now. This winter will have less wintry precip than last year.
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This sounds really dumb. I'm as big of a winter cynic as there is. But you really take the cake sometimes with these kinds of posts. There is nothing that is suggesting an exceptional drought for the SE. Nothing
 
Rain Cold said:
This sounds really dumb. I'm as big of a winter cynic as there is. But you really take the cake sometimes with these kinds of posts. There is nothing that is suggesting an exceptional drought for the SE. Nothing
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I'm pushing exceptional in my area. However, I've seen enough droughts to know that we will catch up given that it is winter and it will rain eventually. I'm guessing he isn't a farmer or anxiety would have taken him a long time ago.
 
Rain Cold said:
This sounds really dumb. I'm as big of a winter cynic as there is. But you really take the cake sometimes with these kinds of posts. There is nothing that is suggesting an exceptional drought for the SE. Nothing
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Drought? Nino FTW

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Rain Cold said:
Both overnight runs of the GFS pretty much kept the same pattern we're seeing now in place.
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Just checked the 06Z GFS and it is barking at a pattern change after Christmas. If you check the individual ensembles, you can actually find fantasy snow storms in the extended. This is the first time, in a long time, that they have started to show up. That's encouraging for NC and maybe northern SC. I don't think GA is going to get in on the snow this year, though. Maybe January for northern Georgia...
 
JHS said:
Yep, this is over here. Look for exceptional drought to come in here before long. This winter and next summer will be just like 1985-1986 when we had perhaps the worst drought ever in the southeast. So much for El Nino and an above normal winter for snowfall. I'll say it now. This winter will have less wintry precip than last year.
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The only thing that will save y’all is a blizzardcane! ?
 
Starting to look like Atlanta to Athens will have to wait another 7 to 10 days for the next gulf low rain maker to help alleviate D2 conditions. This is not ideal, especially since we are suppose to be wetter than normal in an El Nino.
 
weatherfide said:
Starting to look like Atlanta to Athens will have to wait another 7 to 10 days for the next gulf low rain maker to help alleviate D2 conditions. This is not ideal, especially since we are suppose to be wetter than normal in an El Nino.
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That 7-10 day storm is no guarantee either. I fully expect it to trend south and offshore just like this one. This winter into next summer is going to be just like 1986 it looks like. That was a very dry winter and spring and a VERY dry and hot June and July.
 
weatherfide said:
Starting to look like Atlanta to Athens will have to wait another 7 to 10 days for the next gulf low rain maker to help alleviate D2 conditions. This is not ideal, especially since we are suppose to be wetter than normal in an El Nino.
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I have a feeling Albany and Valdosta will do better than Atlanta. What do you think ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
I have a feeling Albany and Valdosta will do better than Atlanta. What do you think ?
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I believe Albany and Valdosta to Savannah will have copious amounts of rainfall. Atlanta will be good to see .25" total for the entire weekend and then dry for at least 7 days. There will be some cold mornings next week for Atlanta, too, but the afternoon highs should be around sixty by Friday. Kind of close to average for temps but below on rainfall. Christmas week might get us back in the game as far as rainfall, though.
 
I’ll never buy into the snow cover theory. It’s up there with the warm ground temps and “snow won’t accumulate” theory with me. I don’t think snow cover to my north has ever been make or break for our area.
 
Parker said:
I’ll never buy into the snow cover theory. It’s up there with the warm ground temps and “snow won’t accumulate” theory with me. I don’t think snow cover to my north has ever been make or break for our area.
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It definitely does. Most of the big storms in the southern US occur when there's snow cover down to at least the I-80 to I-70 corridor in the CONUS. We're not even remotely close to that here.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It definitely does. Most of the big storms in the southern US occur when there's snow cover down to at least the I-80 to I-70 corridor in the CONUS. We're not even remotely close to that here.
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This may be true, but seems like there’s been a lot of times when there’s been plenty of snow cover, and it doesn’t help us out at all. So idk if it matters as much as just a good pattern and things going our way? Of course both combined probably help the most.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It definitely does. Most of the big storms in the southern US occur when there's snow cover down to at least the I-80 to I-70 corridor in the CONUS. We're not even remotely close to that here.
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If it can snow 4 inches in Colombia SC on November the 1st, when there is no snow cover anywhere in the US to speak of, you don't have to have snow cover up north to get a snowstorm here in the heart of winter. Now, having said that, I know it helps the odds to have it, but it is not a prerequisite.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
If it can snow 4 inches in Colombia SC on November the 1st, when there is no snow cover anywhere in the US to speak of, you don't have to have snow cover up north to get a snowstorm here in the heart of winter. Now, having said that, I know it helps the odds to have it, but it is not a prerequisite.
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I knew someone would go there & cherry pick this system.

Storms like that are also the massive exception, not the rule. The snowfall that actually occurred in that case was extremely localized, 99.5%+ of locales outside the mountains received cold rain, even with a massive -5 sigma upper low.
 
I'm really feeling good about my snow predictions this season.
 
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