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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

1300m said:
Exactly. It’s more clear to me than ever that a functioning west-based -NAO is the most important because we haven’t had one in 13 years now. My RDU 6” analogs clearly show what a functioning one does to the pattern. We just don’t get them anymore.
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I guess it depends in the definition of the -nao. Greenland ridge, AND the 50/50 low pv in the right place I would guess. We never have both but many times we call Greenland ridges -nao. Im not sure what a strong true -nao looks like honestly.
 
SnowNiner said:
I guess it depends in the definition of the -nao. Greenland ridge, AND the 50/50 low pv in the right place I would guess. We never have both but many times we call Greenland ridges -nao. Im not sure what a strong true -nao looks like honestly.
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This is actually really true. IMO what we’ve had a few times over recent years is far-west based -NAO where the TPV never comes east towards northern New England and southeastern Canada. But in most of those cases, somewhere did get wintry weather to our west like Austin, TX or Nashville, TN this year. My RDU analog image I’ve shared a couple times shows what a true west-based -NAO traditionally looks like and how it evolves over a 5 day period preceding RDUs biggest snows. It’s no accident it’s so prominent. -EPO and +PNAs are great for dumping the cold in, but RDUs biggest snows have historically come with those west-based -NAOs. I’m not sure how or why this is debated, the analogs show it.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m such a snow degenerate I’m tracking a snowstorm for a two day window in the mountains 💀 I keep trying to convince myself it’s going to snow somehow even though models are showing mid 50’s

I’m sick
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I did the same thing for a 4 day window last week. Ended up in the 40s to 50s and Sunny, but I did at least get to feel snow crunch under my feet when I drove up to Carvers. Still have my finger on the trigger for a day trip if I see a good Saturday in the short term. Been over two years now since I’ve seen snow fall from the sky.
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Brad Panovich’s Winter Snow Forecast Map issued in November

Generally pretty good and would have been totally spot on if he had moved the below average to the escarpment line.

Overall a good forecast as he was clear in his video version that the piedmont of NC and Virginia would not do well with snow due to warmer ocean temps




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NCHighCountryWX said:
Brad Panovich’s Winter Snow Forecast Map issued in November

Generally pretty good and would have been totally spot on if he had moved the below average to the escarpment line.

Overall a good forecast as he was clear in his video version that the piedmont of NC and Virginia would not do well with snow due to warmer ocean temps

I will try to find the videoView attachment 146492
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BradP is the Mahomes of meteorology
 
I really miss the good ole days of getting multiple days with below freezing in the day time with frost all over. Seen a few good snows as well and this is where I was growing up in Milton Florida .
 
accu35 said:
I really miss the good ole days of getting multiple days with below freezing in the day time with frost all over. Seen a few good snows as well and this is where I was growing up in Milton Florida .
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Good ole Milton...my dad and I used to go fishing there at Avalon Beach
 
Something that never really happened with these blocks is full retrogression to NW Canada, so the TPV never really went east, and when it did, it did so quick, it retrogrades this past jan but the pattern was super suppressive as the Atlantic jet extended, and at the tail end we was relying on northern stream
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Something that never really happened with these blocks is full retrogression to NW Canada, so the TPV never really went east, and when it did, it did so quick, it retrogrades this past jan but the pattern was super suppressive as the Atlantic jet extended, and at the tail end we was relying on northern stream
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What's really annoying is Pam Anderson block we got a few weeks back over Southern Canada would have been perfect, but everything set up too far East! Can't win for losing.
 
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