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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

These models are actually terrible past 5 days. Fell completely apart last night at 0z but they actually went partially back the other way, better, at 6z. Back and forth , back and forth. Its almost like you just have to wait which direction they fall in the end and hope, that for once, they fall our way. The skill 5 days + is abysmal. Time is running short though so we do need to have things trending our way by Tuesday or so to even be in a position to score.
 
Aren't the changes we need to see re: Pacific at 72hrs now? Still no high confidence there for even that?
 
After day 10 this is probably it for most outside foothills/mtns. Unless the ensembles are wrong it would be after the first week of March before we could see a better pattern.


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I woke up and checked whamby and saw it eas over. Then I checked the February thread and thought it was over. Then I kept scrolling the February thread and it appears we’re back on. Then I checked the updated whamby again and it appears it’s over again. I’m an emotional wreck.
 
tazaroo said:
These models are actually terrible past 5 days. Fell completely apart last night at 0z but they actually went partially back the other way, better, at 6z. Back and forth , back and forth. Its almost like you just have to wait which direction they fall in the end and hope, that for once, they fall our way. The skill 5 days + is abysmal. Time is running short though so we do need to have things trending our way by Tuesday or so to even be in a position to score.
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I always think of the "butterfly effect". I am sure there is a better term for it in meteorology but think about how many times you see a forecast bust inside of 24 hours. Temp 5 degrees colder/warmer than forecast, double the rainfall, half the rainfall, etc...
Then these models have to attempt to digest all of these changes(forecast busts) all over the globe and extrapolate it 5..7...10+ days. I keep hoping AI/machine learning will clean it up but so far not so much. The biggest advancement I have seen in the last 15 yrs is computer processing power...so we arrive at the wrong answer much quicker!?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I woke up and checked whamby and saw it eas over. Then I checked the February thread and thought it was over. Then I kept scrolling the February thread and it appears we’re back on. Then I checked the updated whamby again and it appears it’s over again. I’m an emotional wreck.
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I checked the models and was like things look reasonable still and then the sentiment in here was fairly bearish. I must have missed something overnight.
 
Better days.

Georgia Weather History for February 11th​

In 2014, the beginnings of what was to become a historical storm began impacting the state. This storm came in two waves, the first coming on this date. Between 2 and 5 inches of snow fell north of a Rome to Gainesville line. South of this line a mixture of rain, sleet and snow fell but with little impact at that time. The second wave came the next day, February 12th. For more information on this storm, view the event summary.
 
KyloG said:
I checked the models and was like things look reasonable still and then the sentiment in here was fairly bearish. I must have missed something overnight.
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The most frustrating part for me is that this is no longer a traditional overrunning setup. And it looked so good a few days ago. The overall storm setup is not checking a lot of the boxes for me anymore
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The most frustrating part for me is that this is no longer a traditional overrunning setup. And it looked so good a few days ago. The overall storm setup is not checking a lot of the boxes for me anymore
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Yep. Before, it was a classic HP in place with a 50/50 low and cold in place with a trailing wave, which has far more breathing room. Now we are relying on a timely phase. Most likely won’t work out imo our luck is to bad for that
 
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