Brent
Member
Lmao zero snow on the GFS here
If the Euro loses this again it's dead to me ?
If the Euro loses this again it's dead to me ?
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
That storm was the ? ????????????????of all winter events, IMBY
Hate it! Gastonia got the mega - shaft
Brent
Member
Oh well if Sunday fails here I'm likely going to Colorado next weekend unless something else pops up before that ?
None of them are good at face value. They're tools, not actual public-ready forecasts.
Brent
Member
I've noticed the CMC usually has a cold bias but you can never trust the globals anyway even the GFS Euro. Gotta look at the ensembles and look at the larger patterns
So far the GFS is most on an island. Sometimes the CMC is on an island. Sometimes the Euro is in an island. Normally at a long lead time you discount the model by itself. However that doesn’t always mean it’s wrong.
^^ They all suck, in other words. They're meant to be used by meteorologists & physics majors with degrees who know what they're doing. For example, chasing the models on a forum as a hobby and then wondering why the NWS doesn't talk about/issue watches/advisories based off of a few Wintry runs is futile.
Brent
Member
Yeah most of the forecasts here aren't even bothering trying to predict snow even on Sunday and that's three days out...there's just too many possibilities and y'all are talking about a week out. It's impossible at this stage. You gotta watch the trends
I am 100% all in on the Southeast getting a Winter storm in the time-frame. It's becoming harder to separate that point vs people jumping off cliffs over individual runs.
I see nothing on the models that say "no" to a Winter storm.
It’s no fun finding out it might snow when the rest of the general public finds out. I want to be on it first. That’s part of what makes this fun
Brent
Member
Yeah it's always fun to go read social media and everyone acting surprised ?
Bro; We have a situation where people are making and canceling trips based off a model saying snow or not.
It's not normal.
Like not in the good way; but the way of "There's a storm coming and it won't snow where I had planned to go, so I am staying home."
J1C1111
Member
And just think only 45 minutes west of you you could of had 3-4ft drifts and you would of been talking about one of the best you had ever seen in the Carolina's forever. You were that close but so far away. Must of changed over to late at the tail end of the storm down your way.
If I’m chasing and book a week out and the bullseye moves 100 miles the day before the storm you better believe I’m cancelling and booking a room at ground zero. I wouldn’t change plans a week out though hell no
I would still go but I’m not going to lie it would hurt my soul. I’ve just always been that way since I was a kid and it has carried over into adulthood. I didn’t ask for this sickness
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I remember when the precip started, late Thursday I believe imby, it started as sleet and I was like oh boy, this gonna be good! Then all rain till about Saturday at noonish, finally went to snow and was windy and crazy, even heard thunder, but only snowed about an hour or so. What could have been! ?