JHS
Member
This one may have a chance if for no other reason than the history of that part of February for the Carolinas. The cold would be coming in from the NE too instead of having to cross the mountains.
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Why’d it have to be Gufus ? 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
First person that mentions the suppression on the Canadian is getting blocked
Yep and now we're all (and I'm probably more guilty than anyone) of looking at every run from now to verification trying to figure out how we can trend back to that run. It's always one trend away from getting back....Oh yeah, it's easily capable of this on the next run.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I really hope this pattern change happens, this week is just not feeling winter.
Broken024
Member
Suppression happening. Waycross mauler coming. North of I-20 gets clouds.
If this were 72hrs from now (plus a few runs in a row) you'd take it more seriously?
Did you break something earlier Shawn?
12z gfs recapNah. I was talking about the models coming around showing good stuff. It's been on the experimental for 3 days now, consistently.
We should be good now, tech wise, but we are going to be moving hosting providers in the near future. There's going to be some down-time during that, but it's for the best. We are going to offload all our images/attachments to a storage facility elsewhere to help out the server itself. Along with that, we are going to use a much faster web server architecture and hopefully, (fingers crossed) if we stay on this software, a whole new look.
The snow weenie in me would say yes, but let me level with you honestly haha.
I am responsible for alerting our state employees across the state in nine different offices of weather hazards. We/I carry a reputation of being "better/more accurate" than tv and the NWS, especially with our winter weather alert emails and statewide snowfall accumulation maps.
I wouldn't even dream of sending an email considering nwp performance over the past several years until we have close to deterministic model consensus and that likely wouldn't occur until we are inside of 96 hrs prior to verification. I definitely wouldn't create a snow map until we are 48 hours out.
P.S. I'll also say that one reason why We/I carry the reputation we do is I don't issue 11 call maps before an event like some individuals (including some which have been heavily discussed on here recently) - I usually issue one or at the max (ever in a decade) two. I believe you stand behind your forecast and you don't make one until you're confident in it.
Trying to keep everything kind of how it is for this Winter season if we can get by. We are likely going to run into some issues during the migration process and we also need to have some discussions on the best route to take for certain ideas we have.
So yeah, slapping band-aids is best right now until we slow down as we head to Spring.
Yep, for purposes of discussion here we're all informal on any real high faith progg I would like to think. I probably should have used the word higher 'confidence'
You predict any load/high-volume issues if we get into a real ballgame here?
I gotcha. Well, in that case, I would say my confidence would increase if the euro was showing several runs like this inside of D6 (with EPS support from at least close to 1/2 or more of members) but I never trust the GFS beyond D4. In almost every event this winter it has had drastic, event-altering adjustments at mid-levels until about 96 hours out. Not to say the euro is locked-in at D5 or D6 either, but the GFS rarely, rarely has been recently.Yep, for purposes of discussion here we're all informal on any real high faith progg I would like to think. I probably should have used the word higher 'confidence'