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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Rain Cold said:
There's lots of deleting going on across multiple threads. I don't know what the issue is over the last couple of days, but let's please lay off the banter in this thread and the name-calling and insulting in the other, or there are going to be quite a few posters taking a ride to the train station.
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i'm taking the train to charlotte in two weeks so if you're game, i'd really appreciate it.
 
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KyloG said:
Why was it cringe? Mid January I posted the MJO plot showing a healthy trip to 4-5-6 and that would probably kick the can to mid-Feb. I got trolled for that a couple of times. That bothered me and that set off some fireworks the past couple of weeks. The best thing I could have done is not post anything about a potential sucky winter pattern, nobody wants to hear that or have a discussion on that.
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I thought the way it was presented was in a I'm smarter than you manner. Maybe i read it incorrectly because I don't like the guy so I could just be jaded but saying it's not going to snow because the mean 2mT anomaly for dates 7+ days away isn't cold enough is silly.
 
rburrel2 said:
I'm not even sure what Brad's deal is honestly. He has to be smarter than that, is he really just trolling?
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The more he posts and you can see his reasoning it's hard to deny he's on to something. That's not going to work. That doesn't look very cold to me regardless of the H5 look. I know there is more to it than surface temps but that can't be ignored. Could it change? Sure
 
KyloG said:
Yeah...for sure. Try and post less....and when we do post only post optimistic things about the upcoming pattern, any objective post will get mocked, clowned, LOL'd...and that will stir up a hornets nest. BradP got shredded on here last night for saying we will need greater temp departures end of Feb than in mid-January.

I think not having a legit a winter storm thread in 2 years hasn't helped and has everyone on edge and until that changes this is what we got.
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this is the dumbest analogy ever and frankly beneath me but here it goes

a few weeks ago i arrived at my friends backyard where he was having a fire and we were watching the playoffs outside. within 10 minutes everyone was like, ross, you are in such a great mood. you seem so unbothered by things that usually bother you. what's going on?

that's when i informed them i had hosted a woman over for dinner the night before, something i hadn't pulled off in months

anyway what i'm saying is that i think the bold and our storm abstinence is taking a big toll on board morale we'll continue to see cranky spells until that's fixed
 
I don't get why people get so emotional about weather. Most of us want snow, but we're not 6 years old anymore. There's way too much sarcastic posting going on. "Hey, I guess this is bad, right?" "Hey MJO P6 is good, right?" "Hey, things don't work like they used to, amirite?" "Hey so and so, I guess this isn't good enough for you, right?" And then people get mad and respond back. And now we have multiple threads mucked up.

Why is this going on every day? Somebody please explain to me why it hurts you so much when somebody makes a skeptical post about a 2 week out potential pattern that you have to get sarcastic. Somebody please explain to me why it hurts you so much when somebody makes a positive post about a 2 week out potential pattern that you have get sarcastic. If you don't like what someone is showing or explaining, just ignore it or disagree and discuss it like a real grown up with maturity and responsibility and character. Why is this so hard? This isn't life or death stuff here.
 
SD said:
I thought the way it was presented was in a I'm smarter than you manner. Maybe i read it incorrectly because I don't like the guy so I could just be jaded but saying it's not going to snow because the mean 2mT anomaly for dates 7+ days away isn't cold enough is silly.
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To add to this it's always funny to me how some of the "well respected" mets love to dunk on certain things they see on social media but if they do it it's no big deal don't question their brain
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The more he posts and you can see his reasoning it's hard to deny he's on to something. That's not going to work. That doesn't look very cold to me regardless of the H5 look. I know there is more to it than surface temps but that can't be ignored. Could it change? Sure
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Looking at 2m temp anamolies for long range pattern recognition/odds of a wintry threat is about the most meaningless chart you can look at, imo.

We might not get a winter storm, but using the logic of 2m temp anamolies on ensemble means for day 10-15(which are showing below normal) as the reason is quite frankly absurd.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
The more he posts and you can see his reasoning it's hard to deny he's on to something. That's not going to work. That doesn't look very cold to me regardless of the H5 look. I know there is more to it than surface temps but that can't be ignored. Could it change? Sure
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I understand that too and I have suggest that the warmer climate, while it doesn't nullify analogs and teleconnections, might render them less effective prediction tools. I will stop short of saying things don't work like they used to, because of what I said above, but I think there is at least some possibility that things are being impacted in a way that we don't fully grasp, which, if true, would make it less cold today under similar patterns of the past, thus making it harder to snow, particularly later in the season. I think it is at least a possibility worth acknowledging.

That said, making a statement like it can't snow when daytime highs are in the 40s, using a two week out ensemble mean as your baseline, is a little foolish.
 
rburrel2 said:
Looking at 2m temp anamolies for long range pattern recognition/odds of a wintry threat is about the most meaningless chart you can look at, imo.

We might not get a winter storm, but using the logic of 2m temp anamolies on ensemble means for day 10-15(which are showing below normal) as the reason is quite frankly absurd.
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I agree with that. It could be colder. At the same time I don't think this is going to be slam dunk Arctic air where all you need is moisture. Temps will be an issue I think. But our source regions aren't torching anymore and they are still cold enough to get it done with the right setup. It's hard to think we won't at least have a shot in that timeframe. I don't remember Dec 2018 being all that cold before and after that storm but it managed to happen.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I agree with that. It could be colder. At the same time I don't think this is going to be slam dunk Arctic air where all you need is moisture. Temps will be an issue I think. But our source regions aren't torching anymore and they are still cold enough to get it done with the right setup. It's hard to think we won't at least have a shot in that timeframe. I don't remember Dec 2018 being all that cold before and after that storm but it managed to happen.
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That storm, as i recall, began as rain here with temps in the lower 40s.
 
Rain Cold said:
I understand that too and I have suggest that the warmer climate, while it doesn't nullify analogs and teleconnections, might render them less effective prediction tools. I will stop short of saying things don't work like they used to, because of what I said above, but I think there is at least some possibility that things are being impacted in a way that we don't fully grasp, which, if true, would make it less cold today under similar patterns of the past, thus making it harder to snow, particularly later in the season. I think it is at least a possibility worth acknowledging.

That said, making a statement like it can't snow when daytime highs are in the 40s, using a two week out ensemble mean as your baseline, is a little foolish.
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I've never seen this side of him personally. It shows while he's a pro and well respected, deep down he's a weenie like us and this snow drought is really getting to him.
 
ILMRoss said:
this is the dumbest analogy ever and frankly beneath me but here it goes

a few weeks ago i arrived at my friends backyard where he was having a fire and we were watching the playoffs outside. within 10 minutes everyone was like, ross, you are in such a great mood. you seem so unbothered by things that usually bother you. what's going on?

that's when i informed them i had hosted a woman over for dinner the night before, something i hadn't pulled off in months

anyway what i'm saying is that i think the bold and our storm abstinence is taking a big toll on board morale we'll continue to see cranky spells until that's fixed
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Thats the best analogy!
 
Maybe we should all start loudly playing a music list full of old Marvin Gaye and Barry White songs so that we may coax the rare Snow Queen to our own backyards.


-this is the best ode to "coreytucker" I could come up with at the present time ?
 
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While it’s true you need a 20-30 degree departure in late Fab Feb/March in order to get snow, it’s not as hard as that might seemingly imply. A lot of warmth in the late winter comes from the sun under sunny skies. The sun is powerful that time of year and under full sun, it becomes very, very difficult to not have high temperatures reach into the 40s or even 50s by late winter. But slap a full set of cloud cover on and precipitation and it doesn’t take as much “departure” as one might think to get a snowstorm.
 
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