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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

I highly suggest you guys start to use this model:

[2306.12873] FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

arxiv.org

Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.
Click to expand...
 
My favorite things about this place

#1 it didn't snow yesterday so it's never going to snow again.
#2 ensemble means can't be trusted until they can then they can't
#3 illogical posts carry more weight than well thought out ones
#4 winter starts on October 1st but ends December 1st.
#5 a good pattern or pattern change didn't result in roof collapsing snow so it didn't change.
#6 things that were championed as a Holy grail pattern don't mean ---- once someone gets in their feels
#7 when someone mentions a good pattern or a model suite shows a good one it's the best until #5 happens
#8 #7 happens then #5 happens this causes #3 to happen which leads to a combo of #2,4,6.
#9 then it snows or winter ends and the cycle starts over


Edit forgot a few more

#10 it's warm on x date winter is over
#11 dew points are 3 degrees colder than forecast 72 hours before a system the models are busting
#12 cad always over performs
#13 x storm snuck up on us decades ago so this one will too
#14 it's never been x warm x dew point on x date arrrrrghhh
#15 the euro isn't what it used to be
#16 model bias x is why!
#17 random twitterologist repost
#18 poor model with a real known bias shows preferred outcome it must be right this time!
#19 every system from 12/1-6/1 must be a snow storm or severe event
 
Last edited:
SD said:
My favorite things about this place

#1 it didn't snow yesterday so it's never going to snow again.
#2 ensemble means can't be trusted until they can not then they can't
#3 illogical posts carry me weight than well thought out ones
#4 winter starts on October 1st but ends December 1st.
#5 a good pattern or pattern change didn't result in roof collapsing snow so it didn't change.
#6 things that were championed as a Holy grail pattern don't mean ---- once someone gets in their feels
#7 when someone mentions a good pattern or a model suite shows a good one it's the best until #5 happens
#8 #7 happens then #5 happens this causes #3 to happen which leads to a combo of #2,4,6.
#9 then it snows or winter ends and the cycle starts over


Edit forgot a few more

#10 it's warm on x date winter is over
#11 dew points are 3 degrees colder than forecast 72 hours before a system the models are busting
#12 cad always over performs
#13 x storm snuck up on us decades ago so this one will too
#14 it's never been x warm x dew point on x date arrrrrghhh
#15 the euro isn't what it used to be
#16 model bias x is why!
#17 random twitterologist repost
Click to expand...
Did he forget anything? @Kitty Bump
 
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