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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

EastmanGAWX said:
I reside in the area that you referenced as being the "sixth" region. In fact, my location is sixty miles SE of Macon and I can assure you that even this far South isn't devoid of winter weather events. During the last decade, we had four separate occasions that met the criteria of being some type of winter storm. While I absolutely do not expect to see snow/sleet/freezing rain every single winter, it is absolutely not correct to assert that anyone south of the cities you listed under number six to see wintry precipitation during any cold weather month. The old rule used to be that any time there was snow breaking out between the I-10 and I-20 corrider in Louisiana, that the chances of it making it to the Southern half of Georgia were extermely high in terms of plausibility. However, that is no longer accurate and I think that anyone south of Atlanta in Georgia and the lower half of South Carolina (excluding those that got crushed in January 2018) has a right to complain about how things have turned out lately way more than most. If one wants to truly draw a line in Georgia in which your chances of seeing some type of frozen precipiation dramatically drop, it would be a SW to NE line from slightly below Albany to Tifton to Baxley and upwards to Statesboro. Anything on the other half of that line most definitely has a chance at seeing at least something measurable each winter.
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There's a hint of truth and/or logic with a few folks, but those same people tend to extremely exaggerate.
 
So random question…. When daily is new data ingested by the models….. I’ve noticed for years 12Z Runs always suck well 90% of the time, and 0Z is different sometime by a lot. Is it the 0Z that gets new data?


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
So random question…. When daily is new data ingested by the models….. I’ve noticed for years 12Z Runs always suck well 90% of the time, and 0Z is different sometime by a lot. Is it the 0Z that gets new data?


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Both the 12z and 0z get new data ingested.
 
If we can’t score in Feb 2015 then what makes people so sure we’ll score this Feb ? Is the upcoming pattern better than Feb 2015 ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
If we can’t score in Feb 2015 then what makes people so sure we’ll score this Feb ? Is the upcoming pattern better than Feb 2015 ?
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2015 lost its -nao and was mainly pac driven the hope is we can get pac ridge and nao this time which would force a 2015 like outcome south
 
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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The trend. The SE Canada low is shifting west, and if it continues to shift, and if we assume that precip will be more expansive to the NW, then we can score. Just simply the verification that the setup is not dead is all I need.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Someone explain why the GFS was good it looks like ass unless you live in Wilmington? Or is it just the trend west we’re applauding ? Seriously asking not being dumb


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gfs was a continuation of very positive trends we've seen today.

basically an 8 yard run down the middle on first down

tbh should this late phase scenario be borne out though it definitely favors i95 east
 
It's lining up at least on the gfs right like it could blow up inside the 72hr modeling window. Who knows what the precip. field would be right now
 
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