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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

rburrel2 said:
I'm getting really nervous about suppression now for some reason. I'd feel a lot better if the southern wave came in more robust and at a little higher latitude on tonights runs.
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See the rule of thumb that I’ve always understood is that a southern stream wave will tend to leave North America at roughly the same latitude that it enters it. That run of the ICON shows it entering about the US/MEXICO border on the Baja peninsula. Again, just can’t be that worried about suppression with this strong of a STJ and a southern stream wave.
 
SD said:
This is dumb
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Jk it was a really good run.
Myfrotho704_ said:
CMC absolutely nukes the foothills/western Piedmont View attachment 143979View attachment 143980
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Looks like we’re going to Cashiers
?‍♂️
 
If it makes anybody feel better, GFS gives me 2 rain events by Valentine’s Day!
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
It's an unusual setup. An atypical NE flow that depends on an NE system of sufficient strength and orientation and a southern LP to tap that flow simultaneously. Not the usual 1040HP over-locked in over the NE US that brings the usual CAD.

Let's see what the ensembles look like before letting one disappointing deterministic run for next week before cliff diving.
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Iv seen this show too many times. It’s cliff diving time.
 
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