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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

rburrel2 said:
Way worse for February 5th-9th. Every model/ensemble showed more connection between the Canadian ridge and sub-tropics right through our area. More energy/lower heights sagging in to the Southwest instead. Lots more support for a big great plains spinner with no realy cold air behind it in that timeframe as a result.

Sure, things seemingly still look to evolve in our favor past that, but we have/had a chance within the timeframe before 15+ days out. But that looks diminished for now.
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There was always going to be a price paid for high/mid amp ph 4-6 so expectations should be very low until mid Feb.

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I'm skeptical about everything. Wouldn't surprise me if we ended up way above normal for February. Or we do get the pattern that pushes/sets the trough in the SE and we get our CADs. The 12z CFS looks incredible starting at day 15. Shows three/four fantasy storms with plenty of cold building down. I guess the one good thing about showing these fantasy storms is the model thinks wintery precip can still occur east of the mountains. We'll see...

Day 15:
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CFS starting at day 15: https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...at-imp&rh=2024012412&fh=372&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
18z GFS has a more poleward shifted pacific jet as it enters the US, something that’s not really supported atm. Poleward is bad, equatorial shifted = possibly warm, but also the risk of undercutting and stuff dropping on the east side of the omega block. Still with a eq shifted pac jet, there’s a warm risk, but an increased chance of lower heights below the ridge. Think what gets my interest the most is ENS towards the end starting to get those looks the EC weeklies/GEFS ext show with blocking everything up top especially getting the western Canada/Alaska ridge going and lowering the height field below
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You probably missed the memo but we only believe the weeklies if they are warm
 
JHS said:
The 2nd week is probably gone too if the 18z GFS is right. It shows warm weather all the way to northern Minnesota and the snowpack vanishes for the most part east of the Rockies. We have a big southeast ridge this run, with a trough in the west and the storm track west of the Great Lakes with highs near 60 all the way to near Chicago.
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I would absolutely base my forecast for the next month on a singular panel of the 340+ hour GFS.
 
Wow. Do we have any members that are also licensed psychiatrists or professional counselors?? Maybe they can provide us a SouthernWx discount for professional services. I think having access to these maps makes the problem worse. Back in the day, I used to watch the Weather Channel's 7-Day outlook and hope to see pink or blue in Texas. If so, we could generally follow that for a couple of days and hope it moved this way!

The snow drought is incredibly frustrating but all we can do is hope ... but I am glad knowing that other people get as frustrated with it as I do. There is some comfort in knowing I am not alone. When I moved to Jasper from Carrollton in 2020, I was optimistic for more winter action. We have had nothing here more than a trace on 3 different occasions.

With that said, we are not done yet. I remember that the Winter of 92-93 was uneventful ... at least in my area of West Georgia ... and we had temps well into the 70s days prior to the Blizzard. Of course, that is the exception rather than the norm ... but at least the chance is there.

Good luck to everyone ... and I hope that some how, some way we all can score! If for no other reason than sanity!
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Cancelling winter on January 24th is ignorance.
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Seriously, though, you can. Ensemble guidance is rather good out 14 days from now. That puts us in the first week of February. Mid-Feb is really about the end of winter down in the south, so if you don't see an imminent drop-dead gorgeous pattern setting up around the end of the ensemble run, it's 90% likely we are done with winter weather.

I will be right, the optimists will be much less right.
 
Rain event number 4 and 5 on the way for this week tomorrow and Friday! I hate weather
 
I love how ALL the long range comments that are positive, have a backhanded negative response in them now line: This is the look we e. Den waiting on all winter, but if X happens, it’s no bueno!
Makes it hard to have anything to look forward to
 
rburrel2 said:
No reason to cancel winter yet guys. Things look great for Mid-February. All I said was the 12z runs were ugly.
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Oh I'm not canceling winter yet. Just the next couple weeks. I have my doubts but if mid February starts to light up, I'll post a lights on gif. Lol.
 
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