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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

rburrel2 said:
The 12z runs were just awful across the board. Yuck
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They were...why? I thought they were fine. If we get to Feb 1st and models aren't showing cold pushing east by day 10+ then that will suck. Not surprised at all by the models, to get out of this upcoming "bad pattern" always takes longer than we hope.
 
Mitch West said:
I love stories like this. Thank you for sharing! I was 8 during this storm. I wish I had memory of the hours leading up to it.
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We got sent home from school that morning due to some sleet and snow that moved through. I spent the whole day watching Paul kocin on twc. I think around 2pm he started to wave the this is going to be a big deal flag
 
KyloG said:
They were...why? I thought they were fine. If we get to Feb 1st and models aren't showing cold pushing east by day 10+ then that will suck. Not surprised at all by the models, to get out of this upcoming "bad pattern" always takes longer than we hope.
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Way worse for February 5th-9th. Every model/ensemble showed more connection between the Canadian ridge and sub-tropics right through our area. More energy/lower heights sagging in to the Southwest instead. Lots more support for a big great plains spinner with no realy cold air behind it in that timeframe as a result.

Sure, things seemingly still look to evolve in our favor past that, but we have/had a chance within the timeframe before 15+ days out. But that looks diminished for now.
 
Not to mention there's not a single ensemble member amongst GFS/CMC/Euro that shows a dusting of snow for my area in the next 384hrs which gets us through February 8th/9th.

I always take it when no ensemble members show anything; that's a sign the pattern for that timeframe probably won't produce. (I realize that can easily change, just calling it like I see it... the 12z model runs were really bad for wintery weather).
 
rburrel2 said:
Not to mention there's not a single ensemble member amongst GFS/CMC/Euro that shows a dusting of snow for my area in the next 384hrs which gets us through February 8th/9th.

I always take it when no ensemble members show anything; that's a sign the pattern for that timeframe probably won't produce. (I realize that can easily change, just calling it like I see it... the 12z model runs were really bad for wintery weather).
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Yeah, I've seen this before. Most of us are done this year...on to severe threats now.
 
Chazwin said:
No CLT got 3.7” on the 22nd and officially recorded 8.5” at the airport from the Crusher… I double checked the records just to be sure..there were higher amounts in southeast Mecklenburg. It was just west of the airport that totals really started to fall off.
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I’m looking at the NOWData for Charlotte Douglas on the NWS GSP site and it’s showing 4.0 on the 22nd, 4.0 on the 24th, and 0.1 on the 25th. I know the official map of the crusher from NWS RAH, now on Webbers site, shows a 10 inch report in southern Mecklenburg and a 15 inch in southeast Union. It's been said before, but the gradient from northwest to southeast was ridiculous.
 
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rburrel2 said:
No reason to cancel winter yet guys. Things look great for Mid-February. All I said was the 12z runs were ugly.
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I made mention of it on the February thread, but I wouldn’t write off something popping up for next week. There remains a strong CAD signal on the ensembles and temperature means in the southeast Canada are -15 to -30f with a good snowpack still in place in the interior northeast. Not saying it’s likely, but it just wouldn’t shock me if something came together then
 
Stevo24 said:
What are you guys talking about. Fab Feb is still on! CAD storms gallore!!
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Are you in VA? If not, CAD isn't going to get it done. Mid-February is basically early spring, so, meh, not excited for any opportunities after 2-15. We can basically see through ensemble lenses out to 2-8 and there is no potential for winter weather. The ensembles have been bad the past three runs.

It's over.
 
weatherfide said:
Are you in VA? If not, CAD isn't going to get it done. Mid-February is basically early spring, so, meh, not excited for any opportunities after 2-15. We can basically see through ensemble lenses out to 2-8 and there is no potential for winter weather. The ensembles have been bad the past three runs.

It's is over.
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You planted your tomatoes yet?
 
rburrel2 said:
No reason to cancel winter yet guys. Things look great for Mid-February. All I said was the 12z runs were ugly.
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Agreed. To be honest, the ensembles haven't ever been very enthused about the first week in February in terms of wintery precipitation, but there have been some improvements from run to run the last couple days on the GEFS and EPS that have made a lot of us think they were possibly trending toward the CAD solutions the GFS was showing on and off. Ensembles are showing high pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest early that week, which can still lead to interesting outcomes. If not, hopefully we're being set up for a better pattern later in the month.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_49.png


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