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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Yeah it “could” happen but it’s a very low probability event. Biggest issue is this lengthy period of sustained warmth well into Canada.


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Billypg70 said:
I have followed you guys since around 07-08 at the other place.
Followed you all over to this site when some guy named Shawn kept disrupting the mods at the other board.
What happened to that guy? ????
I have learned a lot from everyone here thank you all for this.
If we are going to have 2 middle aged to elder men fight can we all just drive to the Food Lion parking lot on the Hill to watch NWA style.
Since this is mainly NWA country for most.
Burrel can be Jimmy Valiant & Kylo can be Paul Jones.
Only thing I want to know is how many times you going to let Paul Jones shave big Momma's head before you finally win one and shave the Weasel head Boogie Woogie Man?
Their that should lighten the mood.
All us old heads can get a good memory & possible laugh out of that one.
Now let's reel in this Snow & bust this drought for the places that's still got less than an inch.
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From what I understand, that Shawn guy decided to follow alcoholism and give up on the whole weather thing due to lack of snow.

I had a message from him not too long ago. All it was, was an image of a Grinch, a crapped on present, and a picture of The Weather Channel local forecast graphics showing snow on CAE from the early 90s.

He captioned the image: "I am not able to delete my forum account because it's a super admin".

I responded and I've heard nothing since.
 
I like the look of the 12z JMA where it starts to pull out the trough/low providing the cold air right at the end and leaves a little room for the southern low to work with. Best I can tell on the crummy precip maps some precip has already made it in to GA/SC/NC at hr 192. Screen Shot 2024-01-27 at 1.55.48 PM.png
 
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rburrel2 said:
I like the look of the 12z JMA where it starts to pull out the trough/low providing the cold air right at the end and leaves a little room for the southern low to work with. Best I can tell on the crummy precip maps somep precip has already made it in to GA/SC/NC at hr 192. View attachment 143652
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It’s funny because if you speed up the trough to our NE and slow the wave down, but still keep it digging like that, you change the whole identity and turn this into a CAD Miller B mixed bag, right now the wave timing/northern stream trough timing is close enough that it has more of a snow/rain look to it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s funny because if you speed up the trough to our NE and slow the wave down, but still keep it digging like that, you change the whole identity and turn this into a CAD Miller B mixed bag, right now the wave timing/northern stream trough timing is close enough that it has more of a snow/rain look to it
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Yea i'll take my chances with a departing northern stream trough/low and CAD/miller B. It makes the goal posts wider I think. It doesn't even have to depart per say, it could still set up further East as well and accomplish the same thing.

The tpv phasing in to some degree means there's going to be bigger winners and losers and typically the upstate is the loser of those battles. I'd like to avoid having my soul crushed like in 2004.
 
Going back and looking at 2004 5h maps... and wtf.... there wasn't even any phasing. I'll go to my grave shaking my head over that one.

Definitely alarm bells going off that I should temper my expectations with this set up even if models are jackpotting me a couple days out.
 
Come verification time, that rain snow line will setup shop across the far northern Midlands. Bank on it. You want that 850 line at least to Aiken, actually all the way down to the coast for CAE to be in the safe zone.
 
Snow Sucks! said:
Come verification time, that rain snow line will setup shop across the far northern Midlands. Bank on it. You want that 850 line at least to Aiken, actually all the way down to the coast for CAE to be in the safe zone.
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I’d wager it will be even further north than that. MA forum licking their chops right now
 
rburrel2 said:
Going back and looking at 2004 5h maps... and wtf.... there wasn't even any phasing. I'll go to my grave shaking my head over that one.

Definitely alarm bells going off that I should temper my expectations with this set up even if models are jackpotting me a couple days out.
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Yeah… just a good overrunning FGEN forced banding on the front side and then that upper low moving over.
 
rburrel2 said:
Going back and looking at 2004 5h maps... and wtf.... there wasn't even any phasing. I'll go to my grave shaking my head over that one.

Definitely alarm bells going off that I should temper my expectations with this set up even if models are jackpotting me a couple days out.
Click to expand...
 

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