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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

accu35 said:
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Nice, but should go in the December thread.
 
Another possible solution that may occur is, that most places may end up getting overrunning first from the moisture riding along the frontal boundary. Then moisture gets "thrown" in over the SE US and points northeastward as low progresses northeastward.

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bouncycorn said:
What happened in March 1927?
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Came from the NW almost perpendicular to the Apps and we still got obliterated as a monstrous coastal low formed off the SC and probably underwent instant occlusion
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March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap .png


Here's a 500 hPa geopotential height, wind, and vorticity animation I made in IDV using the 1 degree ECMWF 20th Century (ERA-20C) reanalysis dataset for the March 1-3 1927 period... Bowling ball, cut-off low comes out of the southwestern US and gets sheared as it comes east in the face of a big vortex over SE Canada. Most of the energy that kicked off this event came out of the northern stream with some vorticity lobes spitting off the main s/w in the southern branch and running out ahead of it

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0z GEFS mean MSLP spread. This shows that a LP is embedded, coming across the GOM.
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Can someone post EPS when completed? Thanks
 
For what it's worth the 06z NAM has a much better push of cold air the the GFS is showing at 18z wednesday
 
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Looks like a little NW trend on the GFS along with a stronger low. It looks like a low may end up forming if this trend continues. I still wouldn't get your hopes up anywhere yet, as it is still too soon. In a few days, we should know what its doing. I am for now more interested in the second system that comes in after. That will guarantee at least a good several flakes. However, get that low closer and maybe a bit slower and we can have a good storm. If you are in E NC, I don't think the NW trend is your friend this time if it decides to start up more.
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The trend may or may not be in favor for this one, but either way it is a step in the right direction for sure
 
Looks like a few token flakes still manage to fall on the Euro run over RDU before it goes to rain, need heavier precipitation rates to get a rain/snow or heavy snow as is being observed over SE NC

ecmwf_ptype_nc_23.png
 
You can see why the gfs was so far NW. It established enough stream separation and delayed the clipper so that we got a negative tilt and a much more expansive NW precip shield.
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Webberweather53 said:
Looks like a few token flakes still manage to fall on the Euro run over RDU before it goes to rain, need heavier precipitation rates to get a rain/snow or heavy snow as is being observed over SE NC

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Soundings from the gfs aren't bad. We get killed by a warm BL. Dewpoints really jump Thursday night I'm not sure if I buy that 100% right now.

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Classic looking isothermal melting layer on this most recent GFS run between 900-700 hPa. Heavier precipitation rates could generate enough melting and sensible heat transfer in the low levels to get us close enough to freezing to go over to a rain/snow mix as the Euro has shown off and on again the past several runs...

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I think the low pressure will get kicked out from the far southeastern GOM. The 06z GFS OP has the low pressure coming about sooner than the 0z OP run. It could be a trend that the low pressure would come about sooner and a lot further south on the GFS OP.

The 06z GEFS mean pressure supports the idea of a low being suppressed initially in the far southeastern GOM.
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SD said:
Soundings from the gfs aren't bad. We get killed by a warm BL. Dewpoints really jump Thursday night I'm not sure if I buy that 100% right now.

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Im not sure I do either, but regardless if we can get heavy enough precipitation we might be able to override it regardless and still end up w/ some rain-snow or heavy snow. There's little-no in between in this kind of situation, either it's light-moderate cold rain or heavy-very heavy wet snow lol. Of course, precipitation and the latent/sensible heat generated by it is by far & away the hardest variable for the models to forecast for so it may be a few more days yet before we really have a solid grasp on what may generally occur, and even then there will still be huge lingering uncertainties. It's one thing to forecast precipitation, but precipitation intensity is next to impossible and that's what we're going to have to get right to determine precipitation type and amounts most likely...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Classic looking isothermal melting layer on this most recent GFS run between 900-700 hPa. Heavier precipitation rates could generate enough melting and sensible heat transfer in the low levels to get us close enough to freezing to go over to a rain/snow mix as the Euro has shown off and on again the past several runs...

View attachment 1721
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Yep, that sounding would clearly indicate a rate-driven event. What's more impressive to me is that the saturation extends up to 300mb. Could be some good rates.
 
Last 5 EPS runs centered on RDU... Even though the latest's run snowfall mean was less impressive than the 0z suite, it's still higher than the 3 previous suites before that combined and the overall long term trend is still upward. Long ways to go

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Snow cover immediately preceding this event on the 6z GFS. Certainly not as high as I would like to see it (preferably down to I-70), but I've seen much worse...

GFS_3_2017120306_F120_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
 
Worth mentioning even the front that was progged at one point a few days ago on the euro to give us a chance of snow has trended to all rain up to the Canadian border east of the Lakes hopefully this storm doesn't suffer a similar fate
 
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