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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

tractor girl said:
Don't waste your time I am about 30 miles NW of conyers and there isn't jack here.
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Rain snow line in far northwest suburbs. May not meet advisory level criteria in Atlanta. Tantalizingly close. Hopefully as rates go up we will get some pretty flakes.


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EastAtlwx said:
Wow, I️ literally forgot I️ had a friend that lives up in Dahlonega what the hell am I️ doing here.
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I'm in Dahlonega right now. Steady snow not much on ground. 30 miles to the northwest in elijay is a different story.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree. Sun angle is great. Also, the warm nose is not moving much and is cooling. The heaviest isn't here yet and will keep getting cooler. Around noon, it may get heavy enough to cover the roads. Roads only a degree or two away from freezing.
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I'll be headed up towards Murphy this afternoon. Hopefully I can make it.
 
deltadog03 said:
Hrrr keeps showing near 0c pockets at 850 that get close here then up to y’all Webb and Shane under heaviest precipitation
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Yeah I noticed. It's either going to do nothing here or snow like nobody's business but that's what it's going to take aloft to melt enough hydrometeors and erode this warm nose and near surface warm layer. Seems possible but not too likely yet
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I noticed. It's either going to do nothing here or snow like nobody's business but that's what it's going to take aloft to melt enough hydrometeors and erode this warm nose and near surface warm layer. Seems possible but not too likely yet
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All or nothing seems to be the way our snow goes around here the past 17 years.
 
packfan98 said:
12z hrrr is trolling the Charlotte area very hard:
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
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I don’t think this map will be accurate. I’m in N Walker County AL, have barely even seen a flake. It shows us in the 2” zone.


Correction: guess the atmosphere finally moistened up. Been virga all morn on radar, starting to snow lightly now.
 
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So with the amount of snow coming down in the I20 area, will that effect the temps? Will it still get to 40 at noon?
 
Just curious, does anyone think the warm nose will break down on the eastern side of Atlanta by late tonight? It seems like everywhere else is way over performing and I’ve heard reports that the warm nose is alreasy cooling?
 
Secondary roads in Sylacauga starting to get a little slushy
f66670d8562e2b87a50b0b631164b767.jpg


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Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2017

Areas affected...Far West-central MS...Central AL...Northwest GA

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081355Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Occasionally moderate to heavy snowfall (i.e. snowfall
rates around 1 inch per hour) are possible over the next several
hours across portions of central AL and northwest GA

DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations show that temperatures
across central AL and northwest GA have cooled enough to support
snow. Several sites are already reporting moderate snow with
isolated/brief instances of heavy snow (i.e. visibility less than
1/4SM) also being reported. Relatively heavier band of precipitation
is currently ongoing across southeast MS/southwest AL and its
northeasterly motion is expected to take it into central AL and
northwest GA over the next few hours. As a result, snowfall rates
may occasionally top 1 inch per hour in isolated locations.
Subfreezing surface wet-bulb temperatures are expected to remain
north of a line from MEI northeastward to RMG, keeping areas south
of this line predominately rain.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN...

LAT...LON 33358873 33918740 34848522 34838426 34348345 33448484
32658684 32188908 33358873
 
Aleksey Sceviour said:
Just curious, does anyone think the warm nose will break down on the eastern side of Atlanta by late tonight? It seems like everywhere else is way over performing and I’ve heard reports that the warm nose is alreasy cooling?
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I don't think it will. Its still 40 degrees here
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I noticed. It's either going to do nothing here or snow like nobody's business but that's what it's going to take aloft to melt enough hydrometeors and erode this warm nose and near surface warm layer. Seems possible but not too likely yet
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Agreed
 
Once again, the models completely botched the northward extent and intensity of the precipitation shield in an overrunning event in the SE US. NWP verification was probably made worse by the fact that most of us were in an incredible right entrance region of the upper level jet... Most of the lift here seemed to be generated by large-scale upper level divergence forced by this jet streak rather than broad isentropic upglide and concomitant warm air advection that we more often see in an event like this.
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deltadog03 said:
Agreed
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Even still I think we stand a better chance than we normally do because most of the lift is being generated by us being in the right place at the right time, namely this jet streak over New England instead of warm air advection riding over top of a antecedent cold dome we more commonly see w/ overrunning. We'll just have to wait and see
 
My sis just said it has cooled in her area of ATL (northern portion) from 39 to 36 over the last hour with rain increasing after having been dry. She had traveled from near the airport (southside), where it is was 38-39 about 45 minutes ago.
 
Not only that but the NAM sniffed out the deeper 500mb trough before the globals. Good call on the jet streak!!

Webberweather53 said:
Once again, the models completely botched the northward extent and intensity of the precipitation shield in an overrunning event in the SE US. NWP verification was probably made worse by the fact that most of us were in an incredible right entrance region of the upper level jet... Most of the lift here seemed to be generated by large-scale upper level divergence forced by this jet streak rather than broad isentropic upglide and concomitant warm air advection that we more often see in an event like this.
Unknown.gif
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Roads are beginning to get covered here. We probably have an inch right now and its hammering right now. This is AWESOME!
 
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