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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Folks... I just have to say. This is one interesting storm! We’ve went from Mets saying zero chance not happening to now a winter weather advisory and trending models. Glenn burns is on tv trying to explain how difficult this forecast is because it’s critically close to bust or boom possibly. He really is saying we have no idea lmao. This storm is weird! The layer above us isn’t below freezing but wouldn’t take much to change should heavier precipitation develop across N GA, which is a real possibility. Glenn was just showing sleet on the south side that’s been falling for a while mixed in so we are already seeing heavier precip rates bring down sleet. Is it that far fetched to see areas of heavier rain turn to snow and remain due to complete cooling of the column? Everyone on local here is very unsure and are honestly trying to explain more he difficulty verses what’s actually going to happen. Or maybe I am just crazy? Lmao??


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Um, well then GFS...
gfs_asnowd_seus_6.png
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Well at least it has the HRRR on its side as well
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Agreed and I think it just shows when you have marginal temps and the models handle different pieces of the puzzle slightly differently you're going to get those varying outcomes. It is nice to see the short-range models trending colder however

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Went from barely anything to 4" on GFS. It seems all of the models are coming into alignment, for things. At the least should get something out of this thing.
 
gfs_asnow24_seus_4.png
I know short range models are to look at this range, but dang, gfs has went from nothing to this within a day
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Gfs very close to keeping Atlanta as cold rain for the event
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Not really if looking at current temp initially its rain but does change over with a good snow from 32 thru 42 again clown snow map but probably safe to say ATL gets easily 1-3 inches
gfs_asnow_seus_8.png
 
Wow! Never judge a model based off just the initial 30 hours lol. Saw the snow staying north and 850s creeping north and clicked out! From 36-42 ATL getting a good snow!
 
malak05 said:
Not really if looking at current temp initially its rain but does change over with a good snow from 32 thru 42 again clown snow map but probably safe to say ATL gets easily 1-3 inches
gfs_asnow_seus_8.png
Click to expand...

Location matches perfectly with the 12z GEFS mean just higher amounts along with the 12z and 18z NAM.

You can also see the colder air leaking down the valleys of the eastern counties. This type of event is rare in AL where the possible warmer nose is right at the surface.
 
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