Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[SimeonNC]

At this point I''m putting less stock into globals and focusing on nowcasting, and short-range models.

 

[malak05]

Is that bad news for us?

That's a great thing actually you won't 850 blue line the 0 line to be past you, if you review the link I sent you will see the blue and red lines think of the red and blue lines as hot and cold.... that 0 blue line means when stuff starts falling would fall as frozen stuff and you always want that to be pushing away the red if looking for good snow conditions

 

[Arcc]

Another thing to watch for is if the 3-5" totals for snow falling do verify, there will be power outage problems. This heavy wet snow will stick to pine trees like glue.

 

[accu35]

Call me a weenie but I don't think the 18z GFS is gonna verify, even if the climo favored areas are scoring.

WSW for me

 

[SASQUATCH]

How accurate are the 850s on the mesoanalysis page?

Nvm 925s are warm so I guess sleet?

However, they are crashing back in Texas.

 

[deltadog03]

Short term models are key at this point. Hrrr is better than the rap imho

 

[ForsythSnow]

On what model?

GFS

 

[deltadog03]

Hrrr continues to get colder.

 

[Arcc]

How accurate are the 850s on the mesoanalysis page?

Nvm 925s are warm so I guess sleet?

No rain if it fell right now. Sleet normally forms when 850mb or so is warm and 950mb is below freezing.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

According to the 850mb map on SPC mesoscale website, the 0°C line is crashing eastward nearing ATL. Last update showed it back north and west from a Rome to Helen, GA line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoa...php?sector=18&parm=850mb&underlay=0&source=1#

What about at the other levels? Seems theres always a pocket at 700mb or somewhere else that won't ever erode.

 

[RollTide18]

Short term models are key at this point. Hrrr is better than the rap imho

Both are colder while the globals are warmer. What gives? Warm bias? Cold bias? A setup that the models can get a handle of?

 

[RollTide18]

No rain if it fell right now.

Well there have been reports of sleet in south and central Alabama today

 

[Arcc]

Well there have been reports of sleet in south and central Alabama today

Then that is good. Means the RAP is currently running too warm.

 

[Stormsfury]

SC's 850mb temperatures look like a bad case of taco bell methane release. Baffles me how many events have that CSRA warm nose bubbling right up the Savannah River.

FYI, KCHS has dropped to 45° already...colder than KGSP AND KCAE.

 

[farleydawg792]

Hrrr continues to get colder.

Still too warm for East of ATL (Athens area). Hopefully this trend will continue!!!!

 

[SASQUATCH]

What about at the other levels? Seems theres always a pocket at 700mb or somewhere else that won't ever erode.

700mb 0C holding steady across South Central AL, .........For now

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

SC's 850mb temperatures look like a bad case of taco bell methane release. Baffles me how many events have that CSRA warm nose bubbling right up the Savannah River.

FYI, KCHS has dropped to 45° already...colder than KGSP AND KCAE.

East of 85 is most likely going to just have to look for cold air locked in and for it to not be like this, where clouds are blocking the temps from diving even if it warms higher than it has.

Thus, a different event.

 

[RollTide18]

Then that is good. Means the RAP is currently running too warm.

Couldn't you say the same for most of the models except the HRRR?

 

[Hpdb301]

50-1 odds it takes one last significant leap NW. Can't give you scientific reasoning other than it seems to always occur day of.....just my opinion, hopefully some of you will get an early christmas gift!

 

[Arcc]

Couldn't you say the same for most of the models except the HRRR?

Possibly. I haven't had a chance to look in depth at the newer runs.