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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

RollTide18 said:
Looks to be another good HRRR run
Click to expand...

It certainly will be for folks in MS, only out to hr 11 and there's more snow breaking out further north into South/Central MS on the 20z run vs 19z run. Most of southern MS was still rain or a mix during this timeframe (07z Fri) on the 19z run, now they've completely changed over to all snow or a mix on the 20z run. Precip is slightly further north overall in MS/AL/GA.
 
We all get a good hit on the HRRR

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
 
NWS Bham afternoon forecast discussion should get people around I-20 happy...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
313 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Few small but perhaps significant changes to tomorrow`s forecast.

The two noticable trends in the guidance members continue to push
the precipitation field further north and increase the amounts. So
with that, had to go ahead and include the northeast three
counties into the advisory. Also, bumped up the amounts a bit too
with increasing confidence, again with the main concerns being in
the grassy areas and elevated surfaces since temperatures are
expected to remain on the warmer side.

One consideration as far as impacts are concerned are the
precipitation rates. Admittedly, the early runs had unimpressive
rates, but later runs have increased them substantially. Issue
being is that they are coming in the heaviest right around the
morning commute along the I-20 corridor. If those higher rates do
occur, there could be a few hours of accumulation during the
morning hours making for a messy commute. We need to be extremely
cautious there. However with the temperatures, it should melt away
rather quickly once it stops falling.

As always, keep in mind that this is winter weather in the South,
and there will be a lot of variation in the forecast and impacts.
Best advice is to stay off of the roadways, but if you must go
out, please check the road conditions and forecast first! Be
prepared!

17/KLAWS
 
metwannabe said:
That right there is fake news and this is not bantering, I have been burned by the RAP p more than once and as SD pointed out in the banter thread earlier never where we burned more than the winter of 2014 when it showed over 20 in here. With that said I certainly hope this one time it pulls a coup

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well at least it has the HRRR on its side as well
 
It may be arbitrary and mean absolutely nothing in the overall outcome, but I noticed the 20z HRRR initialized 3 degrees too warm here (50 vs 47 actual temperature), but the tradeoff is the dewpoint initialized 3 degrees too low. lol
 
SD said:
I'm not sure what is causing the HRRR to be so much colder than other models but I will take up, my house is right under the dark blue/purple
Click to expand...
Yes, it has been consistently looking great for us. Looks like precip is not going to be a problem, just temps. Maybe the precip is heavy enough to make it could enough for snow.
 
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