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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

You analysis is intriguing but I'm always wondering what exactly it means. I would assume it leads to arctic outbreaks, etc.
I interput it as leading the vortex to being disrupted having to move off the pole. I may be wrong and can be corrected but didnt we have something similar latter half December and its 3 to 4 week lag is whats causing the lobe we are tracking trying to get up under the block. Im Probably way off
 
You analysis is intriguing but I'm always wondering what exactly it means. I would assume it leads to arctic outbreaks, etc.

I interput it as leading the vortex to being disrupted having to move off the pole. I may be wrong and can be corrected but didnt we have something similar latter half December and its 3 to 4 week lag is whats causing the lobe we are tracking trying to get up under the block. Im Probably way off
There are various strat diagnostics to look at, but for our weather, the biggest thing we are looking for is the lower strat (100mb) to be in a weakened state. Simon Lee's research states that -NAO is 7 times more likely when the lower strat is in a weakened state. But yes, that weakened state favors more potential for blocking and cold air outbreaks. An SSW that occurs higher in the stratosphere (10mb) and downwells into the lower stratosphere is one way to get the lower stratosphere in a weakened state, but it's not the only way. Sometimes things align where the lower strat is weak without an SSW (e.g. winters of 2010-2011 and 1995-1996).
 
Pac jet extension later in the month = Bering sea/pac trough, RWT buffet. Kara sea ridging to showing up on weekly means. Feb May put more hurt on the SPV with a H5 pattern associated with an extended pac jet. All in all, the vortex looks weak through winter.
 
Although there is a split in the contours here, an actual hardcore split would be when the entire Strat PV splits into completely separate 'daughter' low anomalies. So, this is showing an SPV that is stretched and pushed off the NPole a bit, which is how a SSW Displacement would be. But either way, the SPV is highly disturbed right now. The NASA GEOS MERRA forecast shows the lower stratosphere dropping to record / near record lows in mid-Jan (100mb)

NCCOI16.png



This image is from the 06z GFS run. This covers the full stratosphere and troposphere (1mb down to 1000mb). The blue coloring shows how the zonal winds are weaker than normal thru the stratosphere with some downwelling occurring in the forecast. Source: http://weatheriscool.com/

AdGL6ZG.png



You can get some good Strat images for free here with the NASA GMAO GEOS forecasts. Note that images can be slow to load when you click on them on that site (i.e. Animate button), but otherwise the loops work well once loaded. Source: https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/wxmaps//

uFMaAmt.png
Thanks!

Given the downwelling shown, I take it that the normal lag time of 2-3 weeks we ordinarily expect would be much shorter too especially with a powerhouse -NAO already in place.
 
Thanks!

Given the downwelling shown, I take it that the normal lag time of 2-3 weeks we ordinarily expect would be much shorter too especially with a powerhouse -NAO already in place.
Yeah, I think the going theme is that we already have a weakened SPV thru the full strat. An SSW occurring in mid-Jan would only accentuate the condition - it wouldn't need to downwell quickly because the weakness is already there in the lower strat. Attempts of model diagnostics showing the SPV increasing in strength have failed recently. Strengthening could come down the line, but probably not in the foresesable future.
 
The models are doing a pretty bad job trying to hold consistency. Obviously the ENS are the best approach right now, but even then they are not handling the changes well.
 
Oftentimes, it's better to actually keep the SPV weak instead of destroying it outright, gives us an opportunity to keep the stratosphere in at least a quasi-favorable state for a longer period of time & doesn't really allow the polar vortex to truly recover (as if often does following major SSWEs)
 
Phase 8 w/El Nino coming to a theater near you in early-mid Feb with renewed blocking. Are yall ready for this??

6peiDic.gif



Ignore how the line stops and curls around in Phase 6. No reason to think this won't just continue on. Phase 6 here 20 days from now (Jan 26). Then 10 or so more days to Phase 8

a04yKQM.png
 
Phase 8 w/El Nino coming to a theater near you in early-mid Feb with renewed blocking. Are yall ready for this??

6peiDic.gif



Ignore how the line stops and curls around in Phase 6. No reason to think this won't just continue on. Phase 6 here 20 days from now (Jan 26). Then 10 or so more days to Phase 8

a04yKQM.png

Here's what the daily NC Dec-Mar Winter Storm Probabilities look like for MJO phase & month, as well as MJO phase & ENSO since 1974:


NC Daily Winter Storm Chance vs MJO 1974-2021.jpeg


DJFM Daily NC Winter Storm Probability MJO + ENSO 1974-2021.jpeg
 
Here's what the daily NC Dec-Mar Winter Storm Probabilities look like for MJO phase & month, as well as MJO phase & ENSO since 1974:


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I'm personally wondering if the recent slowing of the MJO forecasts over the Indian Ocean (phase 2-3) has anything to do w/ the apparent increased favorability we're seeing later in week 2 (esp. on the normally more progressive GEFS suite). There's a peculiar secondary peak in winter storm probabilities for MJO phase 3 in El Niño winters.
 
Am I reading this right that we don’t necessarily want phases 1 and 2 the further we go into January?

We're being setup to score in early Feb w/ the MJO orbiting into the Central Pacific - West Hemisphere (phase 7-8). The stats as well as the pattern grit shows backs that up.
 
We're being setup to score in early Feb w/ the MJO orbiting into the Central Pacific - West Hemisphere (phase 7-8). The stats as well as the pattern grit shows backs that up.
Ok thanks. The MJO is something that I’ve really tried to learn more about the last couple years, and I always thought that we needed a lot of help in other areas when it’s not in 8,1,2 so this is good to know. From the looks of this, even 4,5, and 6 look good during February ninos.
 
Here's what the daily NC Dec-Mar Winter Storm Probabilities look like for MJO phase & month, as well as MJO phase & ENSO since 1974:


View attachment 140305


View attachment 140306
@Chazwin the way I interpret this is phase 4 is the 2nd worst phase you can be in Jan. with a 3.8 percent chance. That flips to one of the more favorable in Feb. But that 1st chart looks like that's all ENSO states combined. When you break it down by Enso phase 4 is still the 2nd worse in an El Nino. But that's not broken down by month and includes DJFM so I'm not sure if that changes toward mid Jan. Either way the favorable period being talked about from the 15th through 20th is almost surely going to be a strong phase 4. So it seems chances are certainly not zero, but they are greatly reduced. Maybe the blocking works wonders and we beat the odds. Who knows?
 
@Chazwin the way I interpret this is phase 4 is the 2nd worst phase you can be in Jan. with a 3.8 percent chance. That flips to one of the more favorable in Feb. But that 1st chart looks like that's all ENSO states combined. When you break it down by Enso phase 4 is still the 2nd worse in an El Nino. But that's not broken down by month and includes DJFM so I'm not sure if that changes toward mid Jan. Either way the favorable period being talked about from the 15th through 20th is almost surely going to be a strong phase 4. So it seems chances are certainly not zero, but they are greatly reduced. Maybe the blocking works wonders and we beat the odds. Who knows?

It has inched a lot closer towards phase 3, esp near the beginning of that period.

IMG_1170.png
 
@Chazwin the way I interpret this is phase 4 is the 2nd worst phase you can be in Jan. with a 3.8 percent chance. That flips to one of the more favorable in Feb. But that 1st chart looks like that's all ENSO states combined. When you break it down by Enso phase 4 is still the 2nd worse in an El Nino. But that's not broken down by month and includes DJFM so I'm not sure if that changes toward mid Jan. Either way the favorable period being talked about from the 15th through 20th is almost surely going to be a strong phase 4. So it seems chances are certainly not zero, but they are greatly reduced. Maybe the blocking works wonders and we beat the odds. Who knows?
I’m personally not convinced that we ever go high amp. The RMM charts have really not been very accurate this year on the progression of the MJO. Even still as we get later in the month, we move closer to where 4-6 definitely improves. Also, something I’ve noticed is at times this winter, the models have really been wanting to pump the SER like what the CMC showed last night, but as we get closer in, it becomes more muted. I clearly think this is due to the influence of the active Nino STJ which keeps the SER muted.
 
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