trackersacker
Member
I think we might squeak by in Northeast Tennessee during that period by what I’m seeing. Any chances of a December 09 style event?
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Wintry Winter 26-27
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Based strictly on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar):
Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that
Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m not confident in one occurring that early in winter because of the lack of cold air. As the Pacific Jet progressively shifts equatorward in Jan-Feb and we see more hits on the polar vortex, I think if we get a big dog event, it occurs in that portion of the winter (Jan-Feb).
You definitely can get/have had big dogs in super Ninos in NE TN. Take early Feb 1998 as an example
trackersacker
Member
Oh yeah people talk about that one almost as much as 93
That SSW is doing work! 
256wx
Member
Good food takes time! A watched pot never boils.
tennessee storm
Member
Yep doing just like says. . Warming event lol
Lots of nice, dry weather this month. Kind of wild we’ve had, or will have no 30s anytime soon.
trackersacker
Member
A real banger second week of December courtesy of the Euro control
Surely this is a safe zone for posting a little long range fun on occasion (Dec 8-10)
How do we get to that -nao
John1122
Member
I read a paper about the QBO and winter effects a couple of years ago, and it noted that the direction of the QBO mattered more than the absolute reading. It found that a negative QBO that was rising towards positive leaned less towards less blocking than a positive QBO that was falling.The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise folks to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well).
Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0.
The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~13 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb ‘27 would be the 10th month and May ‘27 the 13th month.
Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is still around May. Thus, 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8 remain the top +QBO/strong+ Nino analogs ignoring where it will be based (east). If the E basedness is then incorporated, 1982-3 easily becomes the best overall analog.
This image (just updated for Oct) better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end per history til at the very least 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months:
I can't remember where I found it now but thought that was interesting.
Interesting. Thanks for posting that. Regardless, 2026-7 QBO looks similar to 2015-6, 1982-3, and 1957-8. These 3 were similarly moving toward the tale end of a +QBO phase.
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Time to start tracking boys.
trackersacker
Member
Couple thoughts about this, fantasy tho it may be.
Nearly every year we get snow in the December 8th-12th window here in NE TN. Everything from flurries to 14”. Mother Nature just likes those dates.
Also, I like that this upper map is telling us that if we have a somewhat crappy EPO, but the PNA is still positive and Atlantic is primed we at least have a shot.
IMO for example, the December 2018 storm was something magnificent that we pulled out of a very mediocre pattern.
HailCore
Member
I thought this pattern sounded interesting so I gathered some ECMWF ERA5 & Conus NCAR data for the timeframes from the past years and here is a list:
12/08/2025
12/11/2024
12/10/2023 (elevation dependent)
Didn't see anything for 2021 or 2022
12/07/2020 (E TN Flurries)
12/11/2019
12/09/2018 (Diego)
12/09/2017 (Benji)
Don't see anything for 2015 or 2016
12/10/2014 (NE TN Flurries)
12/10/13 (Mixed Precip/ZR)
Not seeing anything for 2011 or 2012
12/13/2010
And there was a ZR event on Dec 12-13, 2009, but mostly for traditional CAD regions E of the mountains into NC.
Too early to even look at these extended outlooks for what they show during this timeframe, but the pattern over the past several years supports the idea of more likely than not to produce winter weather in that timeframe for the general area, so it's nice to see the extended range Euro hinting at the idea.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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I’ve criticized BAM in the past but I do like their reasoning here.
tennessee storm
Member
Only BAM lol. Never give up
That's right. Never give up. Good.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I don’t know where else to post this, but glad to see that upper air data soundings are beginning again out west.
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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For awhile they only did 18z but finally some changes have occurred behind the scenes to have 12z and 00z. Went into affect not too long ago. The service is returning to what it was pre-DOGE.
I don’t know where else to post this, but glad to see that upper air data soundings are beginning again out west.
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Also I can’t expand too much on this at this moment, but amazing improvements coming soon to the NWS website. Beta is already being tested for it.
How long has the NWS website had the same visual layout? I don't even remember what it looked like before now. (BTW that's a rhetorical question)
I assume some optimization for mobile browsers at least.
Sleetisfunbutsnowisgood
Member
Big golf front. Think he meant cold front lol. I am wondering if its SSW attributed or mjo progression?
I don’t see how it is related to the SSW since should it lead to cold, that wouldn’t be til early Dec at the earliest per a minimum 30 day lag for a very early SSW StormchaserChuck. MJO is headed toward MC mid-Nov. So, I see no connection there. Maybe it is just the super El Niño because it correlates decently to a +PNA dominating and a strong +PNA is progged to continue through then.
Bigedd09
Member
Brad P says above average temps and below average snow. And any snow would be late in winter
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Been a long time since Ive seen a sexier looking Blocking H5 map that runs from 11/23-12/7 on the latest cfs map. And it delivers the goods at the surface as one would expect. See if this theme can continue. eye catching when the control run and cfs kind of barking same cadence.
256wx
Member
Someone probably has access to the fancier charts, but this is not discouraging, to my novice eyes at least.
What’s not to love about the new Euro winter outlook if you’re hoping for a colder than normal winter in the Conus?
-For the CONUS as a whole and especially from Chicago-NYC south, it has by far the lowest H5 of any Nov forecast for winter of any of the last 10 years! It has the darkest of the 4 blues over a good portion of the E US . The prior 9 didn’t even have any of the Conus in the 2nd shade of blue anywhere!
-As an added bonus, H5 is slightly lower than what last month had.
-Furthermore, ever since the first DJF 26-7 forecast was available, it has been very consistent (4 months in a row) and the most consistent worldwide of any of the last 10 years.
-To add to that, the -NAO keeps getting stronger as we get closer (blue over Azores has been getting darker) and is by far the strongest -NAO of any of the 10 Nov forecasts with only 25-26 having a notable -NAO (which didn’t verify far off by the way). Other than 25-6, 26-7 is the only year with a strengthening -NAO for winter as it has gotten closer! Related to that, the heights in E Canada are the highest of any of the last 10 years.
————————
Here’s a comparison of the DJF maps for the last 10 years of 11/1 forecasts for winter showing how much lower H5 is for the Conus as a whole by far including 23-4:
26-7: by far the lowest Conus H5 and strongest -NAO of these last 10
25-6: only other one having any -NAO of note and it still is much weaker than that of 26-7
24-5:
23-4 (El Nino): not even close to 26-7
22-3:
21-2:
20-1:
19-20:
18-9: El Nino (not even close to 26-7)
17-8:
-For the CONUS as a whole and especially from Chicago-NYC south, it has by far the lowest H5 of any Nov forecast for winter of any of the last 10 years! It has the darkest of the 4 blues over a good portion of the E US . The prior 9 didn’t even have any of the Conus in the 2nd shade of blue anywhere!
-As an added bonus, H5 is slightly lower than what last month had.
-Furthermore, ever since the first DJF 26-7 forecast was available, it has been very consistent (4 months in a row) and the most consistent worldwide of any of the last 10 years.
-To add to that, the -NAO keeps getting stronger as we get closer (blue over Azores has been getting darker) and is by far the strongest -NAO of any of the 10 Nov forecasts with only 25-26 having a notable -NAO (which didn’t verify far off by the way). Other than 25-6, 26-7 is the only year with a strengthening -NAO for winter as it has gotten closer! Related to that, the heights in E Canada are the highest of any of the last 10 years.
————————
Here’s a comparison of the DJF maps for the last 10 years of 11/1 forecasts for winter showing how much lower H5 is for the Conus as a whole by far including 23-4:
26-7: by far the lowest Conus H5 and strongest -NAO of these last 10
25-6: only other one having any -NAO of note and it still is much weaker than that of 26-7
24-5:
23-4 (El Nino): not even close to 26-7
22-3:
21-2:
20-1:
19-20:
18-9: El Nino (not even close to 26-7)
17-8:
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Do you have the temperature anomaly maps too?
Also, I've noticed the end of the ensembles are nuking the persistent Gulf of Alaska vortex near the end of thier runs over the past couple of days. Change is in the air.
Here’s 2m, the coldest of any of the last 10 winters issued in Nov in the S half of the US, as none of the other 9 had any shade of blue anywhere in the Conus essentially:
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Brad P
trackersacker
Member
Weatherbell view of the new Euro Seasonal for (Dec-Feb)tennessee storm
Member
Agree
NEGaweather
Member
Water is wet, sky is blue
Tsappfrog20
Member
Allan will be releasing his winter forest tomorrow. Will see what he has to say
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Today’s November release of the Euro Seasonal (SEAS5) is forecasting an overall -NAO winter per the model median value, strongest in February.
Purple is the Euro Seasonal forecast (in box and whisker format with black line the median)
Gray is model climatology. Orange is hindcast of the analysis distribution
In the near term, we are closing in on an official SSW, but similar to last November, this one is going to be a close call.
But here are all years since 1940 in which a strong SPV weakening (10mb zonal winds <10 m/s-1) or an official SSW occurred from Nov 1 to Dec 15, with an AO/NAO averaged index shown for the winter months (Dec-Mar). Source for SPV data: https://simonleewx.com/10-hpa-60n-zonal-mean-zonal-winds/
For those winters, here are the ratios of -AO/NAO months vs +AO/NAO months
Same chart but for ratio of only Strongly -AO/NAO months to Strongly +AO/NAO months
Bottom Line: The November release of the Euro Seasonal is forecasting a -NAO thru the winter, maximized in February. Past occurrences of a weak SPV in early winter (Nov 1 to Dec 15) have favored the development of -AO/-NAO blocking patterns during the winter months of December, January, and February, with a particular emphasis on the month of January.
Purple is the Euro Seasonal forecast (in box and whisker format with black line the median)
Gray is model climatology. Orange is hindcast of the analysis distribution
In the near term, we are closing in on an official SSW, but similar to last November, this one is going to be a close call.
But here are all years since 1940 in which a strong SPV weakening (10mb zonal winds <10 m/s-1) or an official SSW occurred from Nov 1 to Dec 15, with an AO/NAO averaged index shown for the winter months (Dec-Mar). Source for SPV data: https://simonleewx.com/10-hpa-60n-zonal-mean-zonal-winds/
For those winters, here are the ratios of -AO/NAO months vs +AO/NAO months
Same chart but for ratio of only Strongly -AO/NAO months to Strongly +AO/NAO months
Bottom Line: The November release of the Euro Seasonal is forecasting a -NAO thru the winter, maximized in February. Past occurrences of a weak SPV in early winter (Nov 1 to Dec 15) have favored the development of -AO/-NAO blocking patterns during the winter months of December, January, and February, with a particular emphasis on the month of January.
Of course you do! Care to explain scientifically?
Will probably be above normal, will wait and see!