Wintry Winter 26-27

[trackersacker]

I think Mother Nature throws us a little curveball to start winter and December this year will probably look more like your typical big Nino January than a big Nino December.

Not exactly cold by any means (& arguably not cold enough to really snow outside the mtns) but probably will end up much more seasonable than we’ve been accustomed to seeing in other recent big Nino events like 2015.

I think we might squeak by in Northeast Tennessee during that period by what I’m seeing. Any chances of a December 09 style event?

 

[GaWx]

Based strictly on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar):


Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that

 

[Webberweather53]

I think we might squeak by in Northeast Tennessee during that period by what I’m seeing. Any chances of a December 09 style event?

I’m not confident in one occurring that early in winter because of the lack of cold air. As the Pacific Jet progressively shifts equatorward in Jan-Feb and we see more hits on the polar vortex, I think if we get a big dog event, it occurs in that portion of the winter (Jan-Feb).

You definitely can get/have had big dogs in super Ninos in NE TN. Take early Feb 1998 as an example