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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar in the big picture to yesterday with (after the next week of cold domination) a stout -PNA and mildness dominating into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar in the big picture to yesterday with (after the next week of cold domination) a stout -PNA and mildness dominating into mid Jan though Jan 12-18 is slightly cooler than yesterday. That last week’s PNA is less negative.
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For those that might be gun-shy of mild, can we give some temp guidance. My thought for general south “winter mild” is 60s/50s-40s, but I think everyone has such a drastically different idea, it could be helpful to articulate. Not you saying you particular, just in general. These pinks cause panic, when still mild equals ALOT better than any of time of the year (imho).
 
ontherocks said:
For those that might be gun-shy of mild, can we give some temp guidance. My thought for general south “winter mild” is 60s/50s-40s, but I think everyone has such a drastically different idea, it could be helpful to articulate. Not you saying you particular, just in general. These pinks cause panic, when still mild equals ALOT better than any of time of the year (imho).
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When I say mild, I mean averaging at least a few degrees above average per the long term guidance (that can easily turn out wrong especially further out). I don’t usually get too specific due to the relative low skill that far out. It isn’t suggesting a blowtorch average although there’d very likely be a few torchy days interspersed if this verifies. My guess is that there’d be a good number of 70s highs in my area on the warmer days with a good number of 60s highs in your area with a chance for a couple of 70s for the warmer days.

But that’s only IF this is close to being correct, which nobody can predict! It’s just longterm guidance. Now would I rather it be colder? Of course. I like BN temps whenever I can get them. Seeing cold coming like we have now is much more fun to me than the opposite. So, I don’t like seeing the mildness although there are way, way worse things in life lol. So, I could handle it just fine.
 
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How we looking on the MJO front? Where’s it headed?? Must be traveling out of 8,1,2, for the warmup to occur next week and people are not playing it alot!?
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates.

Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

I don’t know why this site doesn’t allow me to attach ECMWF’s site’s Euro Weekly maps other than the 10 mb maps.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates.

Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them.

But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan?

I don’t know why this site doesn’t allow me to attach ECMWF’s site’s Euro Weekly maps other than the 10 mb maps.
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While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
 
SnowNiner said:
While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
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Thats true. They have been wrong so many times with cold and getting people's hopes up. I personally think they are terrible. But I'm also aware we seem to find way more ways to be above average than below. So it wouldn't surprise me at all really if we torch til mid Jan or even later.
 
SnowNiner said:
While something to look at and pontificate, I really feel the weeklies are not very valuable, showing cold or warm IMO. My guess is they take the base state of the EPS and just continue it on out. So if the EPS is not correct on the base parameters, the weeklies are going to be even less correct. Considering how bad the ensembles are, there's just no way to know what's going to happen in January. I'm not discouraged by them at all. They'll improve the minute the EPS does.
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Although many times they’ve been dead wrong, I’ve found them over the years to have a better chance to verify halfway decently when they show a drastic change, whether that be for the tropics or for the winter and especially if they’re consistent, of course. That’s as one would imagine especially the case for the earlier weeks. Also, if their anomalies are stronger/stronger signal, they often seem to have a better clue, which is intuitive.

Regardless, it sounds like we may need lots of patience. The first half of Dec will turn out delightfully solidly cold, which I’m very thankful for. It appears we MAY be headed toward a pretty mild 2nd half of Dec and first half of Jan. Then, perhaps based on the EW hint today, we’ll get a cold 2nd half of Jan. So, that would mean one month’s worth of cold and one month’s worth of mild with Feb to be the tiebreaker. Even if warm, we’d always have that one month’s worth of cold before that we didn’t have to have.
 
Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall:
IMG_6076.png

This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec:

PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec

- 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8)

- 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1)

- 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5)

- 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1)

- 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2)

- 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8)

- 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0)

- 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1)

- 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6)

- 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9)

- 2021-2: -2.6/+1.0 (rose 3.6)

So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.9!

Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3:
IMG_6079.png

Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone
IMG_6080.png
 
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I initially put this in Dec thread by mistake.

I remain on “hope the Euro Weeklies for Jan fail miserably mode” because not only did today’s hold onto the mild pattern (though consistent blowtorch still well W of the E US thanks probably to refreshing CAD at times in the E US), they warmed that final week of the run (1/19-25) vs yesterday. Heart of torch still from SC US to SW US, away from CAD episodes.
 
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GaWx said:
Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall:
View attachment 178800

This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec:

PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec

- 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8)

- 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1)

- 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5)

- 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1)

- 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2)

- 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8)

- 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0)

- 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1)

- 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6)

- 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9)

- 2021-2: -1.6/+1.0 (rose 2.6)

So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.8!

Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3:
View attachment 178801

Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone
View attachment 178802
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Those are some really good analogs for us
 
BullCityWx said:
Those are some really good analogs for us
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I saw a lot of really good analogs rolled out earlier in November when there was an early strat warm and some more really good ones when there was a big phase 8 run in December. I ❤️ analogs 😁
 
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