Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it could start to impact things as early as later in February or March
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I think it could start to impact things as early as later in February or March
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
TAO buoy subsurface animation for this month. Notice the thermocline is quickly deepening and advancing eastward over the west-central pacific.
MRKEVIN7575
Member
trackersacker
Member
Jglover004
Member
Just down the road in Seymour. Looks like a decent shower is heading my wayView attachment 177523
9:30 PM: Currently trying to time the incoming wave of sleet with Smoky Mountain Christmas fireworks. Wish me luck
Shadypines33
Member
Man, I've had to replace bushes that froze in North Alabama for the last two winters. I've never had to do that before. It's getting cold here.
trackersacker
Member
It began to sleet right as we got to the car
tennessee storm
Member
lol cold last what maybe day half to two days … climate is warming up
tennessee storm
Member
Not good be honest
lexxnchloe
Member
I get the feeling that many of my readers want a return to a "good old fashioned winter", replete with blizzards, ice storms, and three or four months of notable cold. That may be wrong, since I know many flee to Florida or Arizona in the DJFM time frame. But comments on social media and adjectives thrown from broadcast networks do not lie. Global warming be damned, can we please have our late 1970s' or early/mid 2010s weather back please?
What the analogs tell us, particularly with the 2024-25 predominance as well as "on the margins" resemblance to 2007-08, 2013-14 and 2020-21 is that while it is unlikely that we will have the proverbial "one for the record books", we are going to have a season that will breed its own share of memories for those who like cold, ice and snow. This holiday weekend storm should be a benchmark of sorts because the snowline was dragged far south and a solid white coverage across Canada will favor the cAk regimes. The semizonal course of the westerlies and lack of lasting blocks within the Arctic Circle suggests that at least some gaps in the colder air and snowpack are likely. The final GFS monthly outline for December is basically along cold North vs. warm South lines. But it is that vigorous storm sequence in the Pacific Basin that concerns me. Particularly there is a concurrent impressive southern branch that will ultimately phase with the polar and Arctic flows. Most of the in-depth comparison charts suggest a really tough time in January and February as the cAk vortex finds a home near the Soo Locks. Its current status looks to be across Hudson Bay, which may allow for another cold week before moderation sets in for the middle of December. Another cold intrusion seems probable via the numerical models around the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.
Ski resorts, salt companies and snow plow companies have reason to be optimistic. And so do the "snow freaks" (in memory of the late Dr. Frank Sechrist, University Of Wisconsin all-time snow hater), living in the eastern 2/3 of the USA. But just remember that some warm-ups are likely in mid-January, and this pattern may go away in early or middle March.
What the analogs tell us, particularly with the 2024-25 predominance as well as "on the margins" resemblance to 2007-08, 2013-14 and 2020-21 is that while it is unlikely that we will have the proverbial "one for the record books", we are going to have a season that will breed its own share of memories for those who like cold, ice and snow. This holiday weekend storm should be a benchmark of sorts because the snowline was dragged far south and a solid white coverage across Canada will favor the cAk regimes. The semizonal course of the westerlies and lack of lasting blocks within the Arctic Circle suggests that at least some gaps in the colder air and snowpack are likely. The final GFS monthly outline for December is basically along cold North vs. warm South lines. But it is that vigorous storm sequence in the Pacific Basin that concerns me. Particularly there is a concurrent impressive southern branch that will ultimately phase with the polar and Arctic flows. Most of the in-depth comparison charts suggest a really tough time in January and February as the cAk vortex finds a home near the Soo Locks. Its current status looks to be across Hudson Bay, which may allow for another cold week before moderation sets in for the middle of December. Another cold intrusion seems probable via the numerical models around the Christmas/New Year's holiday period.
Ski resorts, salt companies and snow plow companies have reason to be optimistic. And so do the "snow freaks" (in memory of the late Dr. Frank Sechrist, University Of Wisconsin all-time snow hater), living in the eastern 2/3 of the USA. But just remember that some warm-ups are likely in mid-January, and this pattern may go away in early or middle March.
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:30 A.M. CT
Sunday, November 30, 2025 at 2:30 A.M. CT
Southern Track
Member
Improvement:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
One of the keys to this year having a real chance to break the stereotypical -ENSO mold of a torchy February in the Eastern US is to zonally advect the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool eastward enough to focus convective heating just west of the Int'l Dateline in the Equatorial Pacific.
Still unsure how much of an impact this ongoing MJO event will have to change the mean state in the Pacific the next few months, but it wouldn't take a radical shift from where we're at now to make something like this legitimately possible.
Still unsure how much of an impact this ongoing MJO event will have to change the mean state in the Pacific the next few months, but it wouldn't take a radical shift from where we're at now to make something like this legitimately possible.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Contrary to popular belief, you don't need El Niño to get cold in the E US in Feb & we won't see an ENSO transition that quickly here this year.
Oth, even just a subtle eastward shift of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) to push the ENSO state to something in between Modoki/Central Pacific Nino & classic La Niña by February (with warming focused west of the Int'l Dateline) is more than enough.
Unlike a majority of-ENSO winters, this year could have a few tricks up its sleeve to make the seasonal forecast more uncertain later in the winter
Oth, even just a subtle eastward shift of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) to push the ENSO state to something in between Modoki/Central Pacific Nino & classic La Niña by February (with warming focused west of the Int'l Dateline) is more than enough.
Unlike a majority of-ENSO winters, this year could have a few tricks up its sleeve to make the seasonal forecast more uncertain later in the winter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The fact that we're in an easterly QBO atm also makes me think this is a real possibility
We tend to see significantly more MJO days in the Tropical West Pacific during East QBO winters (which is likely what we'd need this year to see a colder finish to winter (unlike the Nina stereotype).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JD028171
