I haven't watched it, but i bet he's going straight Nina. Probably below average snow for the SE. Is that right?
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I haven't watched it, but i bet he's going straight Nina. Probably below average snow for the SE. Is that right?
that’s a fantastic look showing up early dec. Checking a lot of boxes here if you want a early season winter storm 
All signs point to us being in good shape with the push into the Western Hemisphere IMO (Phase 7-8-1). There's a nice removal of the uplift / convective signal in the Maritime Continent (green neg VP) showing up here on the Euro Wk from mid-Nov into early Dec
Is it fair to say that if the amplitude is higher though the various locations that it takes longer to make the orbit? Like, in this case, if we see a higher amplitude wave, is it possible we remain in favorable phases through Christmas, rather than heading into P3+ by Christmas if is a lower amplitude? I would assume a higher amplitude usually takes longer, but maybe it moves faster, so in the end it may not matter. That's probably a really dumb post, but I'm not that smart, so we'll just have to live with it.
What I am really trying to say is I want it in the good phases around Christmas so it will snow on my house and be cold around the holidays and I dont care about anything else. TIA!
I think larger amplitude resulting in slower movement sounds logical and believe I've heard that correlation before, but not sure of it. Maybe Webb or others can help with that....but Webb has mentioned that Ninas are known for slower moving MJO waves. Ninos more easily carry the signal east out of the Maritime Continent whereas there are typically westward propagating waves during La Ninas (more common to have easterly low-level winds along the equator in the Pacific) that can slow the MJO's eastward progression. In my mind, we have an ideal scenario at the moment of the MJO wave being slowed down along the way thru 5 and 6, and not racing thru 7 at the moment in the forecasts. We need the slow down so that it's not racing thru the good phases in early Dec. The slower the better of course thru 7-8-1-2Is it fair to say that if the amplitude is higher though the various locations that it takes longer to make the orbit? Like, in this case, if we see a higher amplitude wave, is it possible we remain in favorable phases through Christmas, rather than heading into P3+ by Christmas if is a lower amplitude? I would assume a higher amplitude usually takes longer, but maybe it moves faster, so in the end it may not matter. That's probably a really dumb post, but I'm not that smart, so we'll just have to live with it.
What I am really trying to say is I want it in the good phases around Christmas so it will snow on my house and be cold around the holidays and I dont care about anything else. TIA!
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Thank you. Always appreciate your insights!
The last SSW event happened in 1958* (rather than '68 as the post says) but it is to be noted that this event yielded large amounts of snow across NC and SC just a week and a half later on December 11.
Raleigh got 9 inches, and areas of Nash County NC got nearly 20 inches. Columbia saw 8.8 inches as well.
This should be fun to track if all goes to plan.
Actually both 1968 and 1958 had a late Nov SSWE:
Oh wow! I stand corrected lol.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s the last time Fayetteville has seen a foot of snow in a single storm, insane it’s been that long.
My grandfather who passed away a little over month ago told me about this storm when he was stationed in Fort Bragg for basic training. He said he has not seen that much snow in Fayetteville since then (& he would be right
).What a time it must have beenThat’s the last time Fayetteville has seen a foot of snow in a single storm, insane it’s been that long.
My grandfather who passed away a little over month ago told me about this storm when he was stationed in Fort Bragg for basic training. He said he has not seen that much snow in Fayetteville since then (& he would be right
. Reading some stories from that event right now. It really makes one hope for this winter.And I'm sorry for you loss, that is never fun. I hope your grandfather got his fair share of snow over the years.
Is it fair to say that if the amplitude is higher though the various locations that it takes longer to make the orbit? Like, in this case, if we see a higher amplitude wave, is it possible we remain in favorable phases through Christmas, rather than heading into P3+ by Christmas if is a lower amplitude? I would assume a higher amplitude usually takes longer, but maybe it moves faster, so in the end it may not matter. That's probably a really dumb post, but I'm not that smart, so we'll just have to live with it.
What I am really trying to say is I want it in the good phases around Christmas so it will snow on my house and be cold around the holidays and I dont care about anything else. TIA!
