Overview of the Southeastern US Winter Forecast (Nov 2025–Mar 2026)Based on the latest seasonal outlooks from reliable sources like NOAA, the Old Farmer's Almanac, and other long-range forecasters, the upcoming winter in the southeastern United States (including states like Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky) is expected to be a mixed bag. A weak La Niña pattern (with a 54–71% chance of developing by late 2025) is influencing these predictions, which often brings cooler and drier conditions to the southern U.S. Overall, temperatures will likely trend slightly below to near average, with precipitation leaning drier than normal in many areas, leading to fewer rainy days but potential for occasional active storms from the Gulf of Mexico.This contrasts with the warmer, drier outlook NOAA projected for the prior winter (2024–2025), suggesting a shift toward more seasonal chill this time around. Keep in mind that long-range forecasts have uncertainties, and we'll see refinements as fall progresses. My take: Expect a "mildly crisp" winter with bursts of chill—great for outdoor activities like hiking in the Appalachians, but prepare for dry spells that could stress agriculture or water supplies.Temperature Outlook
- Average Winter Temperatures:
- In the core Southeast (e.g., Atlanta, GA; Birmingham, AL; Raleigh, NC), daily highs will average 45–60°F (7–15°C), with lows around 30–45°F (-1–7°C). This is roughly 1–3°F cooler than the 1991–2020 normals in many spots, per Old Farmer's Almanac projections.
- Florida and coastal areas (e.g., Savannah, GA; Charleston, SC): Milder at 55–70°F (13–21°C) highs and 40–55°F (4–13°C) lows, but still dipping below average during cold snaps.
- Northern edges (e.g., Knoxville, TN; Asheville, NC): Chilly spells could push lows into the 20s°F (-6°C), with averages 2–4°F below normal.
- My Thoughts: This setup favors fewer record warm days than recent winters, but don't ditch the heavy coat—cold fronts from the north could deliver sharp, short-lived freezes, especially in January and February. NOAA's split pattern (cooler north, warmer south) tempers extremes, but La Niña's influence tips the scales toward "cozy by the fire" vibes over beach weather.
Weather and Precipitation Patterns
- Precipitation: Drier overall, with below-normal rainfall (20–30% less than average) across the region, particularly in the Deep South and Gulf Coast. Expect extended dry stretches in December and March, but wetter periods (above normal) in parts of the northern Southeast during January–February due to storm tracks.
- Storms and Snow:
- Rain and thunderstorms will dominate, with Gulf-sourced systems bringing occasional heavy downpours (1–2 inches per event). Wintry mix or light snow possible in the Appalachians (e.g., 1–3 inches total in higher elevations), but rare flurries elsewhere—Florida might see frost but no accumulation.
- Fewer severe storms than average, but La Niña could enhance tornado risk in the fall transition (Nov).
- My Thoughts: The dryness might mean less flooding risk but higher wildfire potential if autumn stays arid. For travelers, this points to reliable mild days for festivals or golfing, interrupted by soggy weekends. Snow lovers in the mountains: Pack chains for those rare but scenic events.
Monthly Breakdown (Nov 2025–Mar 2026)Here's a quick table summarizing trends by month, synthesized from NOAA, Old Farmer's Almanac, and Farmers' Almanac outlooks:
| Month | Temperature Trend | Precipitation Trend | Key Weather Notes |
|---|
| Nov 2025 | Near average (mild start) | Below normal | Dry, sunny; light frost risk in north. |
| Dec 2025 | Slightly below average | Drier than normal | Chilly holidays; potential early cold snap in Appalachians. |
| Jan 2026 | Below average (coldest month) | Near to above normal | Active storms; possible wintry mix in hills; drought relief in spots. |
| Feb 2026 | Near average | Below normal | Mild rebound; dry winds increase fire watch. |
| Mar 2026 | Slightly below average | Drier than normal | Spring tease with variable fronts; low snow risk. |
In summary, this winter won't be a deep freeze like 2021's polar vortex, but it'll feel more "wintery" than the balmy 2024–2025 season. If La Niña strengthens, we could see even cooler outliers—I'll keep an eye on updates from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. For hyper-local details, check tools like Weather Underground as we get closer. What's your go-to winter activity in the Southeast?
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