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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

GaWx said:
Is this a real post by Maue?
I can’t believe a reputable pro met would post something like this. I mean even Joe B. wouldn’t do this.
If I didn’t know better, I would have thought this was posted by an imposter. I wonder if his account was hacked.
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I kinda think he’s trolling for engagement but not sure
 
tennessee storm said:
You must live in high elevations …. it’s been way above average for
Most Tennessee. Even East Tennessee
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Nope 600-700 feet above sea level. Piedmont region of NC.
Greensboro only Hit 90 degrees 1 day in August and barely did that on that day / right on 90 degrees was the max temp. August at Greensboro airport was -3.8 Below Normal. So far in September we are almost -5 BN with half the month behind us. Astounding we will only have one barely 90 degree day over a 8- 9 month stretch from August 1, 2025-April 30, 2026. if not into late May/June 2026. Good Times!
 
JHS said:
At the very least this looks to be from about 8 months ago. This has nothing to do with this upcoming winter.
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A 30 second look on X shows that 12 hours ago, he quoted a post from 8 months ago, adding additional comments.
 
Is he referring to that warm blob in the N Pacific? Cause someone mentioned the last time we had that, the East Coast had some good winters but we were in an El Niño back then. This time we’re in a La Niña.
 
I will say there's been some people in the Texas group I follow talk about 13-14 also... But I think that may just be wishful thinking 🤣 🤣 I don't really believe in analogs after the last few years anyway but I'm still kind of disturbed at the number of horrible winters I found that have been following the pattern this year too

One thing for sure though.. We had a very early late November early December winter threat and then a storm in 13(and I haven't seen a snow event before the week of Christmas since I moved here in 2021)
 
Snowfan said:
Is he referring to that warm blob in the N Pacific? Cause someone mentioned the last time we had that, the East Coast had some good winters but we were in an El Niño back then. This time we’re in a La Niña.
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During 2014-5 (NE Pac blob may have still been lingering then though I’m not sure) there was a very weak El Niño. But the year most mentioned with regard to the blob, 2013-4, was cold neutral.
 
GaWx said:
With it not cold in the NE, you can bet he’ll likely cool it in a revision at some point later regardless of whether or not the late tropical season is active.
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I would take my chances wirh this one 🤣🤣🤣
 
I'd love another 8 inch snowfall again this winter but likely cashed out for the next few decades with the one last January...lol

I've given up on ever experiencing another legendary arctic blast from my childhood ...ala December 1983, January 1985, or December 1989 but it would be nice to finally see another big boardwide Miller A snowstorm that pastes the northern halves of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia along with most of Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina with anywhere from 4 to 12 inches. We're certainly due since it's been a while since we've seen one or those.

Downtown Fairhope, AL (on Mobile Bay 40 minutes west of Pensacola, FL)

8 inches last January

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Brent said:
I still don't like most of the analogs I've seen here. Very little snow

I also feel like last winter is gonna be hard to top for many reasons
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Not many people were thinking that last winter was going to be exciting. Just difficult to predict with any accuracy. We had a decent amount of ridging over Alaska that helped allow cold to come down south.
 
With the seemingly never ending GOA ridges we better get some arctic blocking. We've been fortunate in 2021/2022/2025 to get enough blocking to shove cold down into the conus. But when no blocking, its a conus blow torch. Who you got...



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cd107.77.236.56.271.12.6.11.prcp.png
 
Mr.Kevin7575 said:
Not many people were thinking that last winter was going to be exciting. Just difficult to predict with any accuracy. We had a decent amount of ridging over Alaska that helped allow cold to come down south
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Exactly my point here. I just don't want people getting excited over analogs. After all we live in the south... Snow is still just kind of random and lucky especially New Orleans and Florida 🤣

I'd rather keep expectations low like last year... I mean I was going into last winter feeling like it was never going to snow again or something

But I mean we were way colder than normal and above average on it. That's my whole point. Not sure we can do that again but nobody knows
 
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