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Wintry Winter 25-26 Preszn discussion

My initial impression of 2025-26 is it will will look more canonical Nina with a heavier +NAO/+TNH lean than your average La Nina.

We likely won't be able to keep pace with last year’s warm pool strength, especially over the Indian Ocean, and the general downturn in solar persists with some change in the QBO favors an equatorward shifted Aleutian/Alaskan ridge, yielding a pattern that resembles Vimont's Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism, a favorable recipe that can possibly yield El Niño later in 2026.

It's also somewhat rare that back to back La Niña winters both have a se us ridge or eastern trough. We typically flip-flop from one to the other (the old QBO rule). I can see this winter (esp mid-late winter) being more canonical in that regard.

The warm tropical western pacific will likely once again yield a big dose of +TNH this winter, and the easterly QBO will favor a more active MJO. Thus, even if it's a mild winter overall, it'll likely get bitterly cold at times subseasonally with respectable opportunities for snow in the south.
 
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A Warm Tropical Western Pacific is a pretty key element that usually drives +TNH/ "polar vortex" patterns in winter over N America and was probably the biggest reason I was skeptical of some of the canonical Nina forecasts from others last year (including NOAA's CPC & JB).

Imho, the increasingly more frequent +TNH pattern we've seen in winter is likely a forced response to the oceanic dynamical thermostat mechanism which strengthens the zonal SST gradient across the tropical pacific, and is a response to a rapidly warming background climate, as sequestered sub-surface water in upwelling zones (like the eastern Pacific) warms at a slower rate as it is upwelled to the surface.

Impact of Warming Trend in Western Equatorial Pacific on Modulating the Triple-Dip La Niña and Its Associated Teleconnection in 2020–2022

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Interesting tidbit from meteorologist Tim Buckley out of Greensboro, NC:
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I can't find any correlation here although I will say it seems to be one extreme or another. Either a ton of snow or basically no snow 🤣
 
SD said:
@jackendrickwx can you get the years from him?
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I’m not Jack or Tim, but the official GSO data back to 1903 has these as the 10 coolest Augusts on record. Warning: these aren’t necessarily the 10 coolest with regard to anomalies as of course the normals were cooler prior to 2001. I don’t know whether Tim is taking anomalies into account, which obviously is important.

After a further look, Augusts 1903-2000 were pretty steady with 76.1 on average. But 2001-2024 were way up at 77.6!

So, here are the 10 coolest Augusts with regard to absolutes (may or may not be coolest 10 with regard to anomalies):

1927 (72.8), 1992 (73.0), 1976 (73.0), 1971 (73.2), 1929 (73.2), 1985 (73.4), 1946 (73.4),
1986 (73.6), 1981 (73.6), and 1931 (73.8).

Looking at 2001-24, what would I add to this list to take into account the 1.5F warmer avg?

2004 was 74.9, 2013 was 74.7, and 2014 was 74.9. I would definitely add those to get a top 13 coolest anomalywise prior to 2025, especially 2013 and 2014.

On an anomaly basis, I put 2025’s 73.5 as the coldest on record and it’s not even close!

*Edit: For coldest anomalies in order, I’d have 2025, 1927, 1992, 1976, 1971, 1929, 2013, 1985, 1946, 2014, 2004, 1986, 1981, and 1931.*

Source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah
 
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GaWx said:
I’m not Jack or Tim, but the official GSO data back to 1903 has these as the 10 coolest Augusts on record. Warning: these aren’t necessarily the 10 coolest with regard to anomalies as of course the normals were cooler prior to 2001. I don’t know whether Tim is taking anomalies into account, which obviously is important.

After a further look, Augusts 1903-2000 were pretty steady with 76.1 on average. But 2001-2024 were way up at 77.6!

So, here are the 10 coolest Augusts with regard to absolutes (may or may not be coolest 10 with regard to anomalies):

1927 (72.8), 1992 (73.0), 1976 (73.0), 1971 (73.2), 1929 (73.2), 1985 (73.4), 1946 (73.4),
1986 (73.6), 1981 (73.6), and 1931 (73.8).

Looking at 2001-24, what would I add to this list to take into account the 1.5F warmer avg?

2004 was 74.9, 2013 was 74.7, and 2014 was 74.9. I would definitely add those to get a top 13 coolest anomalywise prior to 2025, especially 2013 and 2014.

On an anomaly basis, I put 2025’s 73.5 as the coldest on record and it’s not even close!

*Edit: For coldest anomalies in order, I’d have 2025, 1927, 1992, 1976, 1971, 1929, 2013, 1985, 1946, 2014, 2004, 1986, 1981, and 1931.*

Source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah
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Followup with GSO snowfall (inches) following these 13 cool Augusts: (* La Niña)

1927 0.0
1992 6.9
1976 10.5
*1971 13.0
1929 10.9
2013 15.3
1985 1.4
1946 8.9
2014 9.6
2004 1.7
1986 23.4
1981 13.7
1931 1.7

-AVG 9.0” vs 8.4” longterm mean
-Seasons all over the map from well BN to well AN
-Only 1971-2 of the 13 was during La Niña. 5 were during El Niño.
 
GaWx said:
Followup with GSO snowfall (inches) following these 13 cool Augusts: (* La Niña)

1927 0.0
1992 6.9
1976 10.5
*1971 13.0
1929 10.9
2013 15.3
1985 1.4
1946 8.9
2014 9.6
2004 1.7
1986 23.4
1981 13.7
1931 1.7

-AVG 9.0” vs 8.4” longterm mean
-Seasons all over the map from well BN to well AN
-Only 1971-2 of the 13 was during La Niña. 5 were during El Niño.
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To me that’s shows no correlation. It seems very random based on the skew of totals!
 
Once you get into mid November, one can have a real good idea what direction winter will go. Before that, we mostly are guessing. If we get alaskan ridging, we will most definitely have our cold shots here. I think if we get east based niña, we will have our storminess also.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Sitrep: spider webs are big this year. Need persimmon seeds and wooly worms to confirm
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Got your wooly worm update...saw one with a thick black stripe, followed by a thick brown stripe, followed by a thin black stripe.

Also have an unconfirmed report of two mostly brown ones. Repeat, unconfirmed.

Brick usually provides the persimmon report.
 
Rain Cold said:
Got your wooly worm update...saw one with a thick black stripe, followed by a thick brown stripe, followed by a thin black stripe.

Also have an unconfirmed report of two mostly brown ones. Repeat, unconfirmed.

Brick usually provides the persimmon report.
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I hope Brick is ok. I haven’t seen him at either place in a very long time. He often takes long breaks from one and goes to the other, but this long of a break from both is a little bit concerning. Maybe he’s changed his name? Or maybe he’s waiting til we get closer to winter?
 
GaWx said:
I hope Brick is ok. I haven’t seen him at either place in a very long time. He often takes long breaks from one and goes to the other, but this long of a break from both is a little bit concerning. Maybe he’s changed his name? Or maybe he’s waiting til we get closer to winter?
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I believe this is him...
Screenshot 2025-09-05 at 2.05.36 PM.png
 
GaWx said:
I hope Brick is ok. I haven’t seen him at either place in a very long time. He often takes long breaks from one and goes to the other, but this long of a break from both is a little bit concerning. Maybe he’s changed his name? Or maybe he’s waiting til we get closer to winter?
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He has about 10 user IDs now and flips back and forth between them.
 
SimeonNC said:
I don't know if this exactly fits here but I lowkey wanna chase a LES event in Upstate NY this year, like find a cheap airbnb somewhere like a week out, and take train ride up there or something.
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This is the way. Chasing is now how we see significant snow.

And kudos for the first gen z vernacular I’ve read in a post here. 😂
 
SimeonNC said:
I don't know if this exactly fits here but I lowkey wanna chase a LES event in Upstate NY this year, like find a cheap airbnb somewhere like a week out, and take train ride up there or something.
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Yeah I mean I went to Breckenridge last year which was pretty good but a true LES would be something else... The only thing is it's kind of random 😂

I was scared it wasnt gonna snow in Breckenridge and I mean it wasn't anything crazy but it did snow for like 2 days lol it was very expensive there though even before the season really started and only got worse later

Now driving to Kansas City for their blizzard a month later was interesting but I'll tell you what I was ready to come home as soon as it was over 😂 I dunno it's not the same somewhere else. I got stuck in the parking lot trying to leave haha and drove straight home after that

3 days after that was our biggest snowstorm here in years. Go figure
 
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Brent said:
Yeah I mean I went to Breckenridge last year which was pretty good but a true LES would be something else... The only thing is it's kind of random 😂

I was scared it wasnt gonna snow in Breckenridge and I mean it wasn't anything crazy but it did snow for like 2 days lol it was very expensive there though even before the season really started and only got worse later

Now driving to Kansas City for their blizzard a month later was interesting but I'll tell you what I was ready to come home as soon as it was over 😂 I dunno it's not the same somewhere else. I got stuck in the parking lot trying to leave haha and drove straight home after that

3 days after that was our biggest snowstorm here in years. Go figure
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You nailed it !
Not the same somewhere else!!!!!!
But that being said, a Great Lake effect snow, where they get like 48”-60” in like 2 days, 5” an hour rates and thundersnow, are what dreams are made of! And they usually see them coming 3-4 days away now!
It’s on my bucket list to experience that!! 1757341751094.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Are the hornets nests high off the ground? That means rough winter! And nut production on oaks and August fogs
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I've heard that the same thing about hornet nests applies to squirrel nests too. If I am able to harvest a deer this year or if I hit one with a vehicle and have it processed, I'll check the layers of fat underneath the skin. If they are thick, that usually corresponds with a cold winter.
 

Misc - Sports Thread

There ain't much Sports going on right now, but I'm pretty sure we can find something to talk about anyways... Andy Dalton just went to the Cowboys. Even though they supposedly have a good QB already (that they somehow haven't signed a contract with yet). Jameis Winston is now a backup QB to...
southernwx.com
 
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