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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Twister said:
Could be stacked and could not be, it's still 2 months out. Time will Tell, no way to tell this early though
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Just because something is "x" amount of time out doesn't mean there aren't indicators you can look at to reasonably forecast the chance of certain standing planetary wave patterns from showing up.

There's no way to tell this early? That's literal nonsense. Do you want me to explain what those things you can look at are because I can certainly write a book about it, however I'm sure you probably don't give a crap, especially if I'm not forecasting a cold/snowy February.

If you know what you're doing and have experience doing it (& aren't biased unlike JB or BAMwx for example) this sort of forecasting sn't rocket science. Yeah we mess up like any weather forecast, but I stg I see these same tired arguments from the same people every year on this long range stuff.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just because something is "x" amount of time out doesn't mean there aren't indicators you can look at to reasonably forecast the chance of certain standing planetary wave patterns from showing up.

There's no way to tell this early? That's literal nonsense. Do you want me to explain what those things you can look at are because I can certainly write a book about it, however I'm sure you probably don't give a crap, especially if I'm not forecasting a cold/snowy February.

If you know what you're doing and have experience doing it (& aren't biased unlike JB or BAMwx for example) this sort of forecasting sn't rocket science. Yeah we mess up like any weather forecast, but I stg I see these same tired arguments from the same people every year on this long range stuff.
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You taught me a hard valuable lesson two years ago!

You were right & I was wrong!
I hope u can understand that I'm never going to just completely give up on winter weather no matter what the teleconnections are indicating in the long run!
We have seen it snow literally in every phase of the enso,
With or without a negative or positive AO, NAO, CPO, PNA & every other teleconnection you want to read!
Anything is possible!
But I now get your point,
It's hard as heck to thread the needle in good patterns,
The odds of it happening in a bad pattern are so astronomically against it happening that it's akin to,
Having the only winning lottery ticket in a billion plus jackpot!
Here's Hoping we get something to break the snowless drought for us all but esp in the GSP area who,
Now has the longest snowless drought in history!
(Not counting trace amounts).
Btw it's so depressing hearing that our window is literally only 2 weeks if it's bad window & maybe 3 weeks if it's a good window.
That's the biggest difference to me in winters now!
We always had warm periods,
Maybe even more warm days than cold.
It's just that now the window isn't 6 weeks throughout winter,
It's 2 -3 weeks.
Much harder to thread that needle with less time to do so!
🤷‍♂️
 
Billypg70 said:
You taught me a hard valuable lesson two years ago!

You were right & I was wrong!
I hope u can understand that I'm never going to just completely give up on winter weather no matter what the teleconnections are indicating in the long run!
We have seen it snow literally in every phase of the enso,
With or without a negative or positive AO, NAO, CPO, PNA & every other teleconnection you want to read!
Anything is possible!
But I now get your point,
It's hard as heck to thread the needle in good patterns,
The odds of it happening in a bad pattern are so astronomically against it happening that it's akin to,
Having the only winning lottery ticket in a billion plus jackpot!
Here's Hoping we get something to break the snowless drought for us all but esp in the GSP area who,
Now has the longest snowless drought in history!
(Not counting trace amounts).
Btw it's so depressing hearing that our window is literally only 2 weeks if it's bad window & maybe 3 weeks if it's a good window.
That's the biggest difference to me in winters now!
We always had warm periods,
Maybe even more warm days than cold.
It's just that now the window isn't 6 weeks throughout winter,
It's 2 -3 weeks.
Much harder to thread that needle with less time to do so!
🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
I still think we see about 6 weeks of opportunity in winter, generally. This year, about 2.5 weeks were used in the beginning of December and the next 2 will be used at the first of January and then your remainder will be in late March!
 
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