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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

griteater said:
Checking in on the last 10 runs of the CFS for January. No way this can fail

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Jeff Goldblum What GIF by The Late Late Show with James Corden
 
GEFS Ext here - not a far fetched move for late Dec into Early Jan given La Niña, MJO progression and +QBO, but we’ll see. Always takes some luck / good fortune, and sync with East Asia weather pattern. No sign thus far of MJO getting stuck in the Maritime Continent (Phase 4-5)

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Rain Cold said:
It's really nice. It would be great to get this sequence to show up in the model the last 10 days of December, since I think that's when its predictive skill is the best.
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I'm all in for frozen on or about the 1st. I've seen it before several times, and I'll see it again. Granted it was in the 70's I think, may the 60's, and in Atl...but it could happen again...and somewhere else! I had a white Xmas one time, and that broke climo's back....but climo says the 1st is fine.
 
If you ever want to see 11 straight days of SE Winter Weather Glory. Go play the loop on the 0Z CFS from Jan1-Jan11. Im talking frozen for everyone multiple storms and long lasting Artic Plunge to go with it. This would be the digital Fantasy/ Make a wish to verify just once for a CFS run to come true check to cash in.
I watch the CFS all the way out daily when pattern chasing, trying to see if there's any consistent clues its spitting out/seeing. It's been honking for early Jan glory potential several times now with a nice press of Cold. Yes its the CFS but I have noticed if its advertising something consistently over time, and the Teleconnection outlooks look like they would support such, usually it is right more than its wrong with the pattern, obviously not with the exact wx.
 
NCSNOW said:
If you ever want to see 11 straight days of SE Winter Weather Glory. Go play the loop on the 0Z CFS from Jan1-Jan11. Im talking frozen for everyone multiple storms and long lasting Artic Plunge to go with it. This would be the digital Fantasy/ Make a wish to verify just once for a CFS run to come true check to cash in.
I watch the CFS all the way out daily when pattern chasing, trying to see if there's any consistent clues its spitting out/seeing. It's been honking for early Jan glory potential several times now with a nice press of Cold. Yes its the CFS but I have noticed if its advertising something consistently over time, and the Teleconnection outlooks look like they would support such, usually it is right more than its wrong with the pattern, obviously not with the exact wx.
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To be fair that’s all these models do during winter is honk for winter weather in fantasy land. I hope it’s right for once.
 
NCSNOW said:
If you ever want to see 11 straight days of SE Winter Weather Glory. Go play the loop on the 0Z CFS from Jan1-Jan11. Im talking frozen for everyone multiple storms and long lasting Artic Plunge to go with it. This would be the digital Fantasy/ Make a wish to verify just once for a CFS run to come true check to cash in.
I watch the CFS all the way out daily when pattern chasing, trying to see if there's any consistent clues its spitting out/seeing. It's been honking for early Jan glory potential several times now with a nice press of Cold. Yes its the CFS but I have noticed if its advertising something consistently over time, and the Teleconnection outlooks look like they would support such, usually it is right more than its wrong with the pattern, obviously not with the exact wx.
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Only 3 to 4 weeks out. Book it!
 
griteater said:
Euro Wk brings the MJO signal to Phase 7 with sufficient amp by day 20 (Dec 30). The black ensemble mean line weakens the signal out past day 20 (common to an extent with it being an extended ensemble of 100 members)

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That's interesting that it brings it into phase 7 and then moves it quickly into the cod if it's to be believed
 
Metwannabe said:
We need it to have staying power so the cold will eventually bleed east. Man We're still weeks away
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When I hear “Bleed East” I have nightmares of Dallas to Little Rock to Memphis to Nashville down to Huntsville getting Winter weather at 5-15° while the Carolinas get a cool rain.
 
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