• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

La nina conditions. Or scale tipped in La nina favor as opposed to a neutral state (no el nino or la nina)

The exact position east based verse west based el nino, and la nina matter most for our downstream effects, then strength of each.

Its a dice roll no matter what is cooked up for our sakes it seems. So Id prefer a dice roll of neutral state and take my chances with other drivers of the pattern.
 
I still say the winter of 13/14 seem to be matching most closely from my non expert eyes. I stand to be corrected. Most in NC would take a redux. Also I beleive 1985 was a neutral to weak sauce la nina.
Why I thought GSO could hit a 0 for a low this winter as a pre season highlight. Both those winters had some cold punches come down. We are in the midst of one now this week. Doesnt mean we avoid some Good Golf weather days, as next 2 weeks appear on warm side, but wet as well to a degree.
 
Just in time for Santa moving to January. Let's hope so.

RMM MJO Phase 7-8 in cold ENSO is usually the hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC.

IMG_3895.png

January phase 7 in general is the true hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC, with a 1 in 6 chance per day of seeing snow/ice. This is about 3x higher than climo
IMG_3896.jpeg
 
RMM MJO Phase 7-8 in cold ENSO is usually the hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC.

View attachment 155534

January phase 7 in general is the true hot spot for getting a winter storm in NC, with a 1 in 6 chance per day of seeing snow/ice. This is about 3x higher than climo
View attachment 155535
Just out of curiosity, what are you considering a winter storm here? Any precipitation with a temp at or below 32, measurable snow, snow > 1” or something else? Also, do these stats include the mountains?
 
Just out of curiosity, what are you considering a winter storm here? Any precipitation with a temp at or below 32, measurable snow, snow > 1” or something else? Also, do these stats include the mountains?

Any storms that are archived on my website where measurable snow/ice occurred outside the mountains, (>Trace snow or T or greater ZR) or cases where measurable snow or ice occurred at RDU, CLT, GSO, ILM, FAY, or ECG (when I don’t have a storm archived).

I made these a few years ago and posted them right before Jan 2022 happened
 
Any storms that are archived on my website where measurable snow/ice occurred outside the mountains, (>Trace snow or T or greater ZR) or cases where measurable snow or ice occurred at RDU, CLT, GSO, ILM, FAY, or ECG (when I don’t have a storm archived).

I made these a few years ago and posted them right before Jan 2022 happened
Good deal. I did a similar study myself around 2018 and found the same results so I was curious if your methodologies were similar, which they were.
 
Good deal. I did a similar study myself around 2018 and found the same results so I was curious if your methodologies were similar, which they were.

NOAA ESRL has provided an OLR based MJO index that goes back to 1940 using ERA-5 reanalysis. Might be worth giving that a try when I get a chance and have some time on my hands


NOAA ESRL MJO indices
 
NOAA ESRL has provided an OLR based MJO index that goes back to 1940 using ERA-5 reanalysis. Might be worth giving that a try when I get a chance and have some time on my hands


NOAA ESRL MJO indices
I remember when I used to have “professional development” days where I could do fun SQL-based studies like this. Apparently I developed too much, because I don’t have much free time anymore lol.
 
This is one of those winters where I think a strat warm event would actually hurt us (potentially). I just don't want to lose the stratosphere support over top of the Hudson Bay vortex.
Is there a reason you like the Hudson Bay vortex? Maybe historically speaking that can produce here?, but I feel like the last 10-15 years it has been absolute garbage for getting wintry weather.

I guess if it’s transient then good patterns can sprout up around it, but just seems like when it’s there, it stays there for weeks and never leads to anything when it’s around or when it goes away.
 
Back
Top