wow
Member
PV locked in over the NE.. Southern jet loaded for bear
Where are my smelling salts???
Where are my smelling salts???
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Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Euro is King!They'll be available at 0z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The intriguing thing w/ -EPO/+TNH winters like this year may be is that once you see one, there's usually at least 1-2 more to follow.
-EPO/+TNH winters tend to come in 2-3 year clusters, and are typically immediately followed up by an El Niño event.
-EPO/+TNH winters tend to come in 2-3 year clusters, and are typically immediately followed up by an El Niño event.
I’ve honestly been debating (even here) if we were right on the precipice of another fruitful 3-4 winter period. Greenland blocking has returned if we can just adjust the Pacific a tad and get some TPV action under the blocking winter will return.
Brent
Member
Well our TV met just predicted December 3rd for first snowfall
He was wrong last year...
He was wrong last year...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In terms of maximizing our chances for seeing a -EPO/+TNH style mean winter pattern, we have pushed all of our chips to the center of the table this year, just about all the ingredients are there to make it happen imo.
High solar & west QBO (good for shifting the Aleutian high poleward towards Alaska), an east-based La Niña, an anomalously warm Indo-Pacific warm pool, helping to reinforce the long-term trend towards -EPO/+TNH. These kinds of winters have doubled in frequency since the mid-20th century.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's truly remarkable how closely this year's SSTa configuration resembles the long-term pattern trends of the North Indian & tropical West Pacific warming faster than the East Pac. The east-based La Niña, warm tropical Atlantic, & -PDO like signature in the North Pacific also match up remarkably well.
When you look at the corresponding 500mb trends, it gives you a +TNH/+NAO type pattern. Generally where I think this year is headed.
When you look at the corresponding 500mb trends, it gives you a +TNH/+NAO type pattern. Generally where I think this year is headed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The one thing that really sticks out to me that has the potential to significantly mute the canonical La Niña -PNA pattern this year & isn't getting a lot of notoriety, is the warm North Indian Ocean.
A warm North Indian Ocean actually favors a positive PNA, in part because the excess convection here adds enough westerly momentum into the Pacific jet to kick the Aleutian ridge closer to the US West Coast.
A warm North Indian Ocean actually favors a positive PNA, in part because the excess convection here adds enough westerly momentum into the Pacific jet to kick the Aleutian ridge closer to the US West Coast.
Can’t recall a look like this in a while.
Brent
Member
Well the other met I checked despite mentioning specifically that La Nina winters are more snowy here said slightly below normal snow lol
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
GolfishardIknowit70
Member
They may have more educational background, but ultimately they are guesses like most everyone else imoWell the other met I checked despite mentioning specifically that La Nina winters are more snowy here said slightly below normal snow lol
Of course I'm not totally sure that La Nina is even much of a thing....
These predictions are never right anyway I don't know why it matters
Brent
Member
Well yeah the same people swore last year would be better so I take them with a grain of salt
They couldn't even get the day before right the last two winters...
tennessee storm
Member
Only sure thing u can bet on, the climate keeps getting warmer…. Nothing we can do about that this point.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This might be one of those rare cases where seeing a near record strong polar vortex actually helps us this year.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nice wave reflection event into the troposphere thanks to this EPO/TNH pattern. It’s one of the ways this pattern can reinforce itself and become self sufficient on monthly to seasonal scales.
