• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2024-25 Discussion

Our Mets are not optimistic... Probably because it's been warm and dry lately... If we are headed to La Nina that's gonna be favored

Oh well I'm planning extra snowy trips this year just in case after last winter
 
BullCityWx said:
View attachment 152481
Click to expand...

Thanks for posting.

1. WeatherBell CFS maps have been shown to be colder than CFS maps at TT and NOAA, itself, especially in the E US. So, they’re usually misleadingly colder than the real CFS output shows due to programming issues. Note also the strong trough on the W coast. That teleconnects typically with warmth in the SE as I assume you and most here know.

2. Even if WxBell CFS maps weren’t colder than actual output, this has no credibility as it is just one run (0Z 10/3) of an at best mediocre model looking out 3 months. These jump a lot from run to run. The prior run had this ugly map that includes a strong Aleutian ridge:

IMG_0407.png

3. Here’s the average of the last 12 CFS runs from TT showing typical SE ridge:

IMG_0408.png

4. I’ll be surprised if 24-5 isn’t warmer than last winter in the SE due to a combo of Niña, strong -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave. Thus I’m already looking ahead to 25-6 for better potential.
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Our Mets are not optimistic... Probably because it's been warm and dry lately... If we are headed to La Nina that's gonna be favored

Oh well I'm planning extra snowy trips this year just in case after last winter
Click to expand...

1. With a strong -PDO/Niña I’d give OK a somewhat higher chance for a non-mild winter than the low chance for the SE. OK and SE sometimes don’t correlate.

2. For the SE the bulk of the hard hit residents (other than ski resort owners) would probably not want a harsh winter during the rebuilding. That’s the positive side of looking at mild winter chances.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posting.

1. WeatherBell CFS maps have been shown to be colder than CFS maps at TT and NOAA, itself, especially in the E US. So, they’re usually misleadingly colder than the real CFS output shows due to programming issues. Note also the strong trough on the W coast. That teleconnects typically with warmth in the SE as I assume you and most here know.

2. Even if WxBell CFS maps weren’t colder than actual output, this has no credibility as it is just one run (0Z 10/3) of an at best mediocre model looking out 3 months. These jump a lot from run to run. The prior run had this ugly map that includes a strong Aleutian ridge:

View attachment 152499

3. Here’s the average of the last 12 CFS runs from TT showing typical SE ridge:

View attachment 152500

4. I’ll be surprised if 24-5 isn’t warmer than last winter in the SE due to a combo of Niña, strong -PDO/WPAC marine heatwave. Thus I’m already looking ahead to 25-6 for better potential.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I'm leaning towards more of an icy threat in areas that don't need it right now. Wondering if the actual snow axis is going to setup along about TN north with even Virginia fighting temps this year.
 
Don’t know what this guy is smokin, but I want some! IMG_6520.png
 
Brent said:
Our Mets are not optimistic... Probably because it's been warm and dry lately... If we are headed to La Nina that's gonna be favored

Oh well I'm planning extra snowy trips this year just in case after last winter
Click to expand...
People were on the bandwagon on very exciting back half of winter last winter, which didn't work too well. It was really more of a niña acting pattern with it being front loaded actually
 
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 said:
We got lucky last winter Brent. I was surprised it was that cold snowing again. Very rare around my area
Click to expand...

Yeah but I never got the big storm I've wanted for 2 years now. Another dusting. At one point the models had 10 inches here from that

Then the February storm would have been it but like the rest of the winter we were 2 degrees too warm. It was just frustrating
 
I can Guarantee you Greensboro will have as much Snow this winter as it had the previous 2 winters Combined. AKA: There's no way to go but up in a positive for winter wx lovers like myself. We want hit rock bottom, cause we've been stationed here for the past 2 years. The only thing that could make it worse, is if it never Frosted all winter.
 
The latest ECMWF, CANSIPS, & CFSv2 seasonal are out, and mostly agree on this upcoming winter being a +TNH style winter, with a poleward shifted/strong Aleutian ridge & big Hudson Bay vortex, very reminiscent of winters like 2013-14 & 1988-89.


ecmwf-seasonal-monthly_avgs-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_season_mostrecent-8368000.png



cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_nhem_2.png



cansips-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_season_mostrecent-8368000.png



I threw together an analog composite for this winter based on a host of factors & found something very similar to this. Note the 500mb anomaly composite below includes a list of ~200 total years, with some winters like 2013-14 & 1988-89 repeating more than 10x (because they're some of the better analogs for this winter).

Also, if you're someone that frequents NOAA ESRL's compositing page (e.g. @KyloG, @griteater, @GaWx, @1300m ), this NOAA PSL FACTS page is like that but on steroids. You can do so much more in here, like changing the climatological base periods, color scales, and reanalysis datasets & you're also not limited to throwing in just 20 years into a composite. I put a list of 200 years into the one below & it still plotted normally, even though the title only shows the first 28 years in the list I provided.


https://psl.noaa.gov/repository/model/enscompare?frequency=Monthly

https://psl.noaa.gov/repository/alias/facts/
Weighted Winter Analogs 1940-2023 500mb heights.gif

bafkreie2qmarle4ccr4wppswdje4q3fqmhpsotvfp3v5ikngwexeagisbm.jpg


crw_sstamean_global.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latest ECMWF, CANSIPS, & CFSv2 seasonal are out, and mostly agree on this upcoming winter being a +TNH style winter, with a poleward shifted/strong Aleutian ridge & big Hudson Bay vortex, very reminiscent of winters like 2013-14 & 1988-89.


View attachment 152595



View attachment 152596



View attachment 152597



I threw together an analog composite for this winter based on a host of factors & found something very similar to this. Note the 500mb anomaly composite below includes a list of ~200 total years, with some winters like 2013-14 & 1988-89 repeating more than 10x (because they're some of the better analogs for this winter).

Also, if you're someone that frequents NOAA ESRL's compositing page (e.g. @KyloG, @griteater, @GaWx, @1300m ), this NOAA PSL FACTS page is like that but on steroids. You can do so much more in here, like changing the climatological base periods, color scales, and reanalysis datasets & you're also not limited to throwing in just 20 years into a composite. I put a list of 200 years into the one below & it still plotted normally, even though the title only shows the first 28 years in the list I provided.


https://psl.noaa.gov/repository/model/enscompare?frequency=Monthly

https://psl.noaa.gov/repository/alias/facts/
View attachment 152600

View attachment 152598


View attachment 152599
Click to expand...
Both 88-89 & 13-14 had some nice February storms.

1728141392599.png

1728141339536.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top