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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
My new favorite follow on Twitter, way better then JB.
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Interesting...EPS delta looks like the GEFS mean
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've fallen into a proverbial rabbit hole on the Iowa State Mesonet site...
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/
Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:
The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/
Here's a climatology of Winter Weather Advisories (WWA) during the last 15 years in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Alabama for ex:
The NWS WWA frequency gradient is pretty impressive across the Atlanta metro area, up to 3 WWAs per year in the northern suburbs to nearly one WWA every 2 years just south of the city.
pcbjr
Member
Very cool
Storm5
Member
And we’re screwed
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And we’re screwed
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Crud.
ajr
Member
SnowNiner
Member
And we’re screwed
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With all the unknowns coming up for December into January, that's the one thing I'm absolutely sure of in my mind, the strat warming stuff will mean nothing for our winter; at least when it means something.
weatherfide
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When he says "U.S." he means New England.And we’re screwed
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MichaelJ
Member
Not quite but close. When he says US he means north of the Mason-Dixon line all the way into the Midwest
weatherfide
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Midwest always has winter. That’s a no brainer.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The NC Climate Office released their winter outlook. The summary reads
With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!
This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.
Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
With all things considered, this winter will probably look like past ENSO-neutral years and even how the past two months have played out within the atmosphere: with lots of variability!
This means seeing some warm and cool periods, some wet and dry ones, and probably even some snow, although predicting when, where, and how much is impossible to tell at this point.
Overall, our wintertime average temperatures are more likely to be near- or above-normal than below normal, but we don't expect warm weather will rule the entire season. It certainly hasn't this fall!
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=305
Criteria snowfall was recently changed a few years ago for northern foothills can be seen. Wish they wouldn’t have done that it skews everything. Apples to oranges.
cd2play
Member
The bloom is definitely off as far as ssw, SAI, snd JB winter forecasts
Thor
Member
I'm probably a bit biased because I lived in a location that has benefited greatly in the past from a SSW (Feb 2010 in the MA) even if it doesn't directly produce snow in the south, if it can do anything to keep from torching or lower temperatures at all for a period during winter that's a positive impact to me.
tennessee storm
Member
No snow to go with cold. Bring me torch any day...
Even if the GEFS is over doing the EPO and troughiness in the east it's still a good sign to see a Aleutian low with -EPO. Kind of what I was hoping for to start winter off...regardless of the NAO.
I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.
I sure am hoping he EPS gets on board, even if muted somewhat.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I found this chart that gives the largest single snowfall for Raleigh each year, going back to 1945. I'd consider anything 3 inches or more decent, and anything 6 or more a big storm.
The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.
The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.
I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.
This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.
We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.
Here's the link to the chart.
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
The 80s were totally awesome. 7 out of 10 years had what I would call decent to big snow storms for the area. 4 of those storms had over 6 inches.
The 90s sucked! One good storm in 96, and 4 years that only had a trace.
I guess the Jan 25, 2000 Carolina Crusher was making up for how bad the 90s were. Besides that, the rest of the 2000s had one big storm, and a couple of decent ones.
This decade was similar to the 2000s, but without a monster storm like the Crusher. Two big storms in 2010 and 2018, and a couple of decent ones in the middle in 2014 and 2015.
We have next month to see if we can get a good storm in 2019. Hope this coming decade we can get back to how the 80s were. It's been 30 years, so maybe it's time.
Here's the link to the chart.
https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php
It's crazy that some of the best winter storms for the Deep South were RDU shaft jobs. I think RDU only got about an inch with the 1993 Storm of the Century. RDU also got mostly ZR from the January 2011 storm with very little snow, and the December 8-9 event in 2017 was almost all rain.