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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

GaWx

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Just to revisit this. EPS won this, mainly on it getting the pacific pattern more correct with the Aleutian ridge.

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As usual, the warmer EPS will verify much more closely than the GEFS for 2 meter temps. On many runs, GEFS had MB temps in the SE for 12/1-5 (as I pointed out) whereas the EPS had only a few degrees BN, which is what I called for based on going with the usually more accurate EPS.
I will continue to favor the EPS over the GEFS for SE temps for the forseeable future as there's no reason to switch.
 
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Fwiw, the EPS weeklies show the next -NPO/-EPO regime showing up at the very tail end of Dec into early January.

In most cases, these mountain torque events trigger circulation anomalies that evolve over a period of about 2-3 weeks, it would make sense given the big GOA trough shows up ~Dec 10th to see a subsequent ridge there again around the beginning of January but this is obviously way out in la-la land. Hopefully, this IO standing wave will finally erode by then.


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pcbjr

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Fwiw, the EPS weeklies show the next -NPO/-EPO regime showing up at the very tail end of Dec into early January.

In most cases, these mountain torque events trigger circulation anomalies that evolve over a period of about 2-3 weeks, it would make sense given the big GOA trough shows up ~Dec 10th to see a subsequent ridge there again around the beginning of January but this is obviously way out in la-la land. Hopefully, this IO standing wave will finally erode by then.


View attachment 26667
Ahhh ...
 

Rain Cold

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That Aleutian low is cringeworthy. Idc what it’s showing in the east. Double hate. Moderating high pressure=rain..next
I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, or NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
 
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I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
Hold on I will make a map
 
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I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, or NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
Aleutian low = good. GOA/AK low bad, especially with +NAM.

The CFS for Jan/Feb looks pretty good for a seasonal...especially Jan
 

GaWx

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I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
Aleutian low has always been good for SE cold prospects and don't see why that would now be different. Aleutian low teleconnects to W US ridge which teleconnects to E US trough, which typically means colder than average SE.
 

Rain Cold

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Aleutian low has always been good for SE cold prospects and don't see why that would now be different. Aleutian low teleconnects to W US ridge which teleconnects to E US trough, which typically means colder than average SE.
I agree with you...which is why I don't get all the angst around the Aleutian low. It makes me feel like we're playing a game of telephone with all of these features.
 
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I agree with you...which is why I don't get all the angst around the Aleutian low. It makes me feel like we're playing a game of telephone with all of these features.
Honestly I just have never seen cold anoms anywhere near AK translate well down stream for us. I guess that would be my gripe with an Aleutian low
 

GaWx

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Honestly I just have never seen cold anoms anywhere near AK translate well down stream for us. I guess that would be my gripe with an Aleutian low
Yeah, that is understandably confusing. The key is that the Aleutians extend pretty far WSW of mainland AK. I think the favorable Aleutian low is centered toward the W Aleutians, which are a whopping 1,200 miles from mainland AK. When the low is there, it is often warm over much of mainland AK, especially C and E portions.
 

GaWx

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From Maxar this morning: warning that due to -GLAAM persistence there's a realistic chance that SER dominates again this winter (though hopefully not real bad like last winter):

"Globally Averaged Angular Momentum (GLAAM) is a measure of the global wind pattern. Historically, the GLAAM has been influenced by the oceanic state of ENSO, with its positive phase associated with El Niño events and its negative phase with La Niña. While this is not always the case, GLAAM is often referenced as an atmospheric response to ENSO. This has not been the case in recent months, as the equatorial Pacific has been in an ENSO-Neutral to weak El Niño state. Yet, the GLAAM has been negative since July including record negative in October, and it stays negative in the forecast for the next 15 days. The GLAAM has statistical support to stay negative into January, with an anomaly correlation from December to January a significant +0.62. This brings a risk for a warmer Southeast ridge response and a mid-atmospheric pattern not dissimilar than that projected by today’s ECMWF Monthly model (not shown)."
 
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I'm confused, does he mean Autumn of 2018? Is he comparing last year to this year's seasonal? IIRC, ALL the seasonals showed a cold winter and all busted last year. I don't recall them flipping but I could be wrong. Not sure how them flipping this year means anything.

I think the only thing that's had any bit of long term accuracy is the end of the month CFSv2. It showed torch for December and it looks like it may bust too warm (we'll see). So I'm taking any seasonal long range guidance with a mountain of salt. I'm latching on to HM's IOD convection death, western hemisphere, phase 8-2 MJO mountain torque, TMNT, Scandinavian Ridge = -NAO blocking as our hope for this year. Yeah I don't understand it, but that's all I got.
 
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I'm confused, does he mean Autumn of 2018? Is he comparing last year to this year's seasonal? IIRC, ALL the seasonals showed a cold winter and all busted last year. I don't recall them flipping but I could be wrong. Not sure how them flipping this year means anything.

I think the only thing that's had any bit of long term accuracy is the end of the month CFSv2. It showed torch for December and it looks like it may bust too warm (we'll see). So I'm taking any seasonal long range guidance with a mountain of salt. I'm latching on to HM's IOD convection death, western hemisphere, phase 8-2 MJO mountain torque, TMNT, Scandinavian Ridge = -NAO blocking as our hope for this year. Yeah I don't understand it, but that's all I got.
I think it means autumn 2018 flipped at the last minute and I do remember that happening. The were consistently showing a cold winter ‘18-‘19 and then did a complete flip at the same time this opposite flip is occurring this year
 
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