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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

I think the 2018-19 forecast bust has made a lot of my posters (myself included) much more bearish on this winter temperature wise than previous winters. February was expected to be very cold and much colder than normal but the exact opposite occurred. TWC's forecast bust was brutal.
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CyclonicFury said:
I think the 2018-19 forecast bust has made a lot of my posters (myself included) much more bearish on this winter temperature wise than previous winters. February was expected to be very cold and much colder than normal but the exact opposite occurred. TWC's forecast bust was brutal.
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Good lord, there is no rhyme or reason behind TWC boundaries. Sometimes, I wonder if their maps are drawn out by preschoolers.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
Main difference is the warm waters around Greenland. Which imo is good for blocking. But it doesn't seem to be helping.
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Oct 2009 the waters around GN were BN and strong -NAO. But, in Oct 2010 the waters were AN and we had a -NAO. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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KyloG said:
LOL. It's almost Nov and I usually get excited about the upcoming winter and started looking at things and noticed...nothing has changed.

Even JB has given up trying to make it cold in the east. HIs prelim winter forecast for temps is essentially a slightly cooler version of what we have seen on average the past decade, and he is probably still to cold.

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Imo, JB’s average of +1 vs 1981-2010 for the SE is about the best the SE can REASONABLY hope for this winter. Think about it this way. 1981-2010 is now colder than our norm. The true norm for now (based on the 2010s) is a good 2-3 or so warmer than this. So, if we get a +1 DJF, that would actually be a colder than normal winter based on the new (2010s) normals as opposed to the out of date 1981-2010.

In the meantime, I hope folks go outside and enjoy today’s fantastic fall wx and stop the constant worry whether this winter is going to be cold. Today’s wx is some of the most comfortable of the entire year and is great for outdoor activities. And as we head toward winter, it will only get colder than today overall.
 
NoSnowATL said:
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Get use to seeing this the next 4-5 months!


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I’ll take my chances with normal in the mountains, if the moisture shows up.
 
KyloG said:
LOL. It's almost Nov and I usually get excited about the upcoming winter and started looking at things and noticed...nothing has changed.

Even JB has given up trying to make it cold in the east. HIs prelim winter forecast for temps is essentially a slightly cooler version of what we have seen on average the past decade, and he is probably still to cold.

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That may be the only forecast I’m close to agreeing with that JB has ever put out. Amazing he went N/+1. I’m shocked.


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CADEffect said:
This is good news for us in the southeast if it holds up.





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The problem per Maxar meteorologists is that the -GLAAM won’t go away. This despite the neutral to weak Modoki El Niño SST pattern promotes a more La Ninaish atmospheric pattern (see last winter), which (along with warm Atlantic waters helping some) favors a SER dominated pattern. There’s no reason not to favor this for the foreseeable future. Until we get a +GLAAM dominating, I don’t expect the SER to vacate the premises in the means.
 
metwannabe said:
Should we just cancel winter already?? Too depressing in here, think I'll boycott this thread and wait to see what actually happens.
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I agree totally with you on that. The way I see it is, if it can turn out bad when it looks like it'll be good, then it can turn out good when it looks bad for us. I know that's very simplistic but that's the way I feel about it.
 
Raysweather is predicting 7” of snow for Wilkes. Below normal. Last year the prediction was 9” and received 18”. Interesting to note he usually always predicts more for Asheville than Wilkes and that usually does not pan out well for him.
 
Ray is also predicting 22” less snow than what he predicted for Beech Mountain last year.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Raysweather is predicting 7” of snow for Wilkes. Below normal. Last year the prediction was 9” and received 18”. Interesting to note he usually always predicts more for Asheville than Wilkes and that usually does not pan out well for him.
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Ray, Avery, is one of the best. He knows his area and puts out a great product
 
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