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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

Nick_boynton_

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I still say +2 to +4 for the se for the winter as a whole. I'm not saying that just because I'm pessimistic, I truly believe it. The last decade has proven this and the warm spells will be far greater and longer lasting than the cold spells. As far as snow I'm not as pessimistic as one storm can double seasonal averages in most places.
So far this year it’s seemed to be the opposite .. warm doesn’t last long at all and then extended cold periods .. we will see it it changes
 
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Cohens blog.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Some highlights. It’s seems the prevailing thought that the current strat model runs is good news for impending cold later in winter. But if you read his blog, specially the blurbs below it’s really not that good a news.

A PV disruption of the magnitude predicted by most models seems to me to more strongly indicative of an absorptive event.

Ironically, I was thinking, though I argue that PV disruptions lead to more severe winter weather across the NH mid-latitudes, the only guarantee with PV disruption seems to be a multi week period of milder weather for Europe and the Eastern US leading up to and including the PV disruption.

It is almost damned if you do and damned if you don’t. If the PV is stable and strong that overwhelmingly favors mild weather and if the PV is significantly disrupted only milder weather is nearly for certain with much more uncertainty with the ensuing severe winter weather. The one possible exception seems to me are the reflected PV events where there seems to be a much stronger likelihood of North American cold weather east of the Rockies.
 

Rain Cold

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Cohens blog.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Some highlights. It’s seems the prevailing thought that the current strat model runs is good news for impending cold later in winter. But if you read his blog, specially the blurbs below it’s really not that good a news.

A PV disruption of the magnitude predicted by most models seems to me to more strongly indicative of an absorptive event.

Ironically, I was thinking, though I argue that PV disruptions lead to more severe winter weather across the NH mid-latitudes, the only guarantee with PV disruption seems to be a multi week period of milder weather for Europe and the Eastern US leading up to and including the PV disruption.

It is almost damned if you do and damned if you don’t. If the PV is stable and strong that overwhelmingly favors mild weather and if the PV is significantly disrupted only milder weather is nearly for certain with much more uncertainty with the ensuing severe winter weather. The one possible exception seems to me are the reflected PV events where there seems to be a much stronger likelihood of North American cold weather east of the Rockies.
All this strat stuff is horsesh#t.
 
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All this strat stuff is horsesh#t.
He was crystal clear, the only guarantee is we will get AN temps leading up to a SSWE...a “multi-week” period. He then says there is no guarantee it will get BN in the East after with an absorptive event. He made it seem like a coin flip. Why are we even rooting for this then. Kind of funny actually, it’s a cool phenomenon but the most likely outcome is we will get AN temps over a “multi-week” period. I just wanna kick someone in the groin area.
 
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He was crystal clear, the only guarantee is we will get AN temps leading up to a SSWE...a “multi-week” period. He then says there is no guarantee it will get BN in the East after with an absorptive event. He made it seem like a coin flip. Why are we even rooting for this then. Kind of funny actually, it’s a cool phenomenon but the most likely outcome is we will get AN temps over a “multi-week” period. I just wanna kick someone in the groin area.
It only help Russia. Russia needs to start helps us.... oh wait.


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He was crystal clear, the only guarantee is we will get AN temps leading up to a SSWE...a “multi-week” period. He then says there is no guarantee it will get BN in the East after with an absorptive event. He made it seem like a coin flip. Why are we even rooting for this then. Kind of funny actually, it’s a cool phenomenon but the most likely outcome is we will get AN temps over a “multi-week” period. I just wanna kick someone in the groin area.
I think these SSW events are tricky and overhyped. Ive never really known how they work for us to reap the benefits of cold.
 

metwannabe

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3-5 I'd take it

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RDU picks up 9" total this year from 2 storms, SE Wake and beyond less than 3".... outside of those 2 winter storms not much else, one minor icing event ( mostly some ice pellets), milder in between with a couple of severe threats. I got no scientific reasoning don't @ me

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Van going all in this winter!
Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV
13 hrs ·
Are you ready for winter and snow?
For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE
Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.
The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.
Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.
This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.
In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.
Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.
Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.
I will have the complete winter outlook next week.
 

metwannabe

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Van going all in this winter!
Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV
13 hrs ·
Are you ready for winter and snow?
For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE
Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.
The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.
Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.
This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.
In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.
Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.
Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.
I will have the complete winter outlook next week.
Shift the amounts 1 row NW and that's my call
 

GaWx

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To avoid the SER being dominant, I've learned from Maxar that the best shot at that is if the GLAAM were to go +, which is usually associated with El Nino. However, a -GLAAM has persisted and is forecasted to continue for the forseeable future. -GLAAM has a pretty good correlation to the SER strength, especially in Dec. Also, there's a decent correlation between the GLAAM of fall and winter. So, for those predicting a cold winter. are you expecting GLAAM to become positive? If so, based on what?
 

Rain Cold

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To avoid the SER being dominant, I've learned from Maxar that the best shot at that is if the GLAAM were to go +, which is usually associated with El Nino. However, a -GLAAM has persisted and is forecasted to continue for the forseeable future. -GLAAM has a pretty good correlation to the SER strength, especially in Dec. Also, there's a decent correlation between the GLAAM of fall and winter. So, for those predicting a cold winter. are you expecting GLAAM to become positive? If so, based on what?
I care about the GLAAM about as much as I do about SSWEs. There's some degree of value in the signal, but we likely have litte idea, given all of the other drivers of the pattern, when it's going to be a main impact player vs being exerted on by something else. We have this tendency to reduce our seasonal expectations to one or two choice variables. We jump onto whatever seems to be trending in the weeniesphere. Glomming onto the GLAAM isn't any different, IMO. I'm not smart enough to know how GLAAM integrates with WPO, NAO, AO, QBO, AMO, AAO, MT, VP flux, IOD, MJO, PNA, EPO, ENSO, TNH, TNA, PDQ, WWE, CNN, AOC, STFU, LOL, or XFL. When we get that figured out, I'll be first in line to do some GLAAM glomming. I'll bet we get a -GLAAM and no sustained SER this December. Let's see what happens.
 

SD

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RDU picks up 9" total this year from 2 storms, SE Wake and beyond less than 3".... outside of those 2 winter storms not much else, one minor icing event ( mostly some ice pellets), milder in between with a couple of severe threats. I got no scientific reasoning don't @ me

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I'll be putting out my final winter thoughts this weekend. Didn't have a huge opportunity to get them together due to work and to be honest people aren't going to like it so it'll be brief

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Remember the last time we had an El Nino and Raleigh was pretty much shut out? We only had one storm last winter around here. It was a good one for me, got about 8 inches of snow, but it was the only storm all winter. We have gotten storms without an El Nino, and we have been shut out with an El Nino. I think we are actually in a better position this winter for more storm chances in NC than last winter. November has been at or below normal with temps for the most part. We get a little warm up this week, but I would not call 60s a torch. And the warmups only last a few days. So far we have seen the opposite of what we usually see, which is warm temps and a few cool shots that last a couple of days. I think we will continue to see more days with normal to below normal temps than warm days this winter, and more storm chances than last winter.
 
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I care about the GLAAM about as much as I do about SSWEs. There's some degree of value in the signal, but we likely have litte idea, given all of the other drivers of the pattern, when it's going to be a main impact player vs being exerted on by something else. We have this tendency to reduce our seasonal expectations to one or two choice variables. We jump onto whatever seems to be trending in the weeniesphere. Glomming onto the GLAAM isn't any different, IMO. I'm not smart enough to know how GLAAM integrates with WPO, NAO, AO, QBO, AMO, AAO, MT, VP flux, IOD, MJO, PNA, EPO, ENSO, TNH, TNA, PDQ, WWE, CNN, AOC, STFU, LOL, or XFL. When we get that figured out, I'll be first in line to do some GLAAM glomming. I'll bet we get a -GLAAM and no sustained SER this December. Let's see what happens.
LMAO, this is quality!
 
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We did take this....in the tush. That chart includes Feb 2019, which we know was a torch of all torches.
I don’t believe it went as planned if I could say that, that looks wasn’t bad and I would take it again for 2020 if we can stay low amp and swing around 8,1,2 for 1-2weeks.


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pcbjr

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GaWx

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Larry, i forgot why we torched so much, despite the mjo phases being colder niño phases. Was it the AAM being out of sync? Let me know.
I think the -AAM likely had something to do with it per Maxar. Also, convection was dominating near Indonesia.
 
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