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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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Very true. That setup would suck for us here in SC.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I pray we aren’t looking at this type of high pressure placement all winter..it will be a long depressing winter for MBY if that’s the case. It looks good on paper I guess but we need some cold air EAST!
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Make that a 1045 high and we’ll do ok.
 
Storm5 said:
Don’t look at the 12z gfs


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tenor.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably the area from NC/TN/VA and north. Climo would favor that over anything. Plus, the lower heights in the SW still bother me. I'd also like to see those blue areas slightly farther south.
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Yeah, it just looks like most of the cold is on the other side of the earth. We stay cool. What do we need to see at H5 to get it on our side?

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_62.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, it just looks like most of the cold is on the other side of the earth. We stay cool. What do we need to see at H5 to get it on our side?

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_62.png
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The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
 
I just want to keep seeing the pattern transitioning to better chances for snow and not going the other way.
 
Rain Cold said:
The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
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The longer it takes to establish the better, just as long as it gets going. The pac doesn't start improving until late in the run, hopefully as we get into December we can see the cold air start filtering back in.

Getting some solid height rises down into Hudson Bay.

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Rain Cold said:
The north Pacific aint the best. It's allowing systems to move into Canada and not promoting cross-polar flow. -NAO values are nice, but you need a cold air feed to make the best use of it. But we're just spitballing over the GFS/GEFS. The Fake Version should be out soon and then the Euro. I'm not too worried about snow chances at the end of November anyway.
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No me neither, I just want to look to see what we need down the line to get true cold. Even in the dead of January, 1-2 degrees below normal is not going to cut it in the SE.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The FV3 goes further that the GFS and looks like this. Yes that's a high dropping with established cold air in place. Let's get more fantasy maps and hope they trend closer too!
fv3p_T850_namer_65.png

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png
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Yeah that's a better look for sure. Hopefully, the upgrade is worth the wait. If you could delete that GOA low, it would be almost as good as it gets for cold. The -NAO is perfect. The low anomaly over the NE probably squashes storm chances, though. But that would be some nice cold air.
 
I guess even when we’re not punting a month and all the indices are best we’ve ever seen, Europe gets all the cold! We just keep finding ways to win! Win baby win!
 
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