Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

[pcbjr]

Phil,
Good self control, my friend. Well at least neutral would be much better than warm, right? Hogtown would still have some strong cold at times. And don't forget that even a record warm winter is so much more tolerable than a record cool summer. But no, I didn't like this run especially due to the less cold trend.

Larry,
Thankfully for anyone who reads here, I know my limitations and of course there's self control ... ergo, bit the tongue ... LOL
But in all seriousness and related to something I raised earlier today (in part thanks to info you've shared with me over time), the one teleconnection that seemingly is being ignored (or at least not discussed) is the AO ...
I do promise self control when Lake City gets 6" of white and it's 40º and raining here ... really LOL
Best!
Phil

 

[GaStorm]

FWIW and IMHO ... Overall the AO is more important for the south as a whole ...

Yep. When the AO takes a good dip the arctic air flows far to the south especially with a good snowpack!

 

[Kylo]

Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200

He is not the only one, though. A lot of mets are calling for above normal snowfall here, including DT and Huffman.

 

[Rain Cold]

I'm all aboard the DT/JB Express.

 

[Rain Cold]

Larry Cosgrove and Brad P. don't seem all that bullish.

 

[SimeonNC]

Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200

To be fair, DT has a similar forecast but with the 200% jackpot being in the NC Mtns and Mid-Atlantic.

 

[Kylo]

Larry Cosgrove and Brad P. don't seem all that bullish.

What did LC say? BP reminds me of GF, super conservative until the flakes are actually flying. Don't blame them. Last time GF went out on a limb he had to jump in fountain. I think that was 2007, weak nino.

 

[pcbjr]

I'm all aboard the DT/JB Express.

If there is a Pullman car, where does one buy a ticket (just to nap and shower between stations)? ... LOL

 

[Brick Tamland]

Has Matthew East posted anything about his winter thoughts?

 

[SimeonNC]

Wall to wall bone-chilling cold isn't needed for a good winter snow wise. In fact with an El Nino pattern we could end up above average in temps and still be above average in snowfall.

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[Rain Cold]

What did LC say? BP reminds me of GF, super conservative until the flakes are actually flying. Don't blame them. Last time GF went out on a limb he had to jump in fountain. I think that was 2007, weak nino.

Generally, LC has December the torch to remember, January normal to slightly above, February is much below, and March is slightly below for the upper SE. Snowfall looks to be normal for the north half of NC/TN north. Overall, it's basically a low confidence forecast. It seems to average out to around a normal to slightly below normal temp pattern for the SE (northern parts are generally slightly cooler relative to normal than southern areas), with snowfall near or below normal.

 

[Storm5]

Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200

Omgd I’ve never been in his jackpot . Kiss of death . I’ll be wearing shorts with temps in the 70s on Valentine’s Day .




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[Storm5]

I'm all aboard the DT/JB Express.

Kinda crazy to have them both so gung-ho well at least DT .

I can’t believe I’m officially in the bathtub with JB . Let the water slosh !!!!!


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[Cad Wedge NC]

Anybody concerned abou the rapidly rising QBO screwing everything up?

Well, to be honest, no I am not concerned. This is a very low solar year and a central/west based El-Nino. There is a warm pool in the gulf of Alaska as well as an Aleution low. It will take a lot of QBO forcing to counteract that.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Hard to disappointed in the latest Euro monthlies, they still look pretty good.

We aren't buying JB's snowfall forecast. He jackpots the south for once.

View attachment 7200

This is absolutely attainable with what the Euro just spit out. All winter months are looking normal/BN, temperature wise, at worst. One decent snowstorm and many of us are already at 100+% of our average snowfall. Temps just need to cooperate and it’s looking like they will

 

[cd2play]

Omgd I’ve never been in his jackpot . Kiss of death . I’ll be wearing shorts with temps in the 70s on Valentine’s Day .




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Then it will be in the teens and sleeting/snowing on February 16

 

[cd2play]

Wall to wall bone-chilling cold isn't needed for a good winter snow wise. In fact with an El Nino pattern we could end up above average in temps and still be above average in snowfall.

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I was fortunate to be in an area that cashed in during the super nino winter of 2016. The Carolina's (I think) cashed in during 2002

 

[Tarheel1]

Kinda crazy to have them both so gung-ho well at least DT .

I can’t believe I’m officially in the bathtub with JB . Let the water slosh !!!!!


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That better be one big as tub! For all three of y’all! Save room for BRad, he may flop!

 

[cd2play]

Kinda crazy to have them both so gung-ho well at least DT .

I can’t believe I’m officially in the bathtub with JB . Let the water slosh !!!!!


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Might as well make it a bubble bath (the snow being the bubble part that is)