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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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Decided it was time to start the thread. With the El Nino expected to develop in the fall, it looks it could be a good winter for us.
 
What ENSO state is good for southern sliders... à la Jan '88, Jan '11? (good q for Gawx, I think... or anyone).
 
just hope it brings me a significant snowfall (3-4" +) haven't seen one since 2011. This area has done bad despite several major snowfalls close by.. A significant warm nose has shunted those south and east of I-85. wow, its hard to believe its been 7 years since ive seen over 2.5" for a single event.
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
Best thread of the year! Last year was great, so this year is probably gonna be a stinker.
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I'm 50/50 on whether or not I think I'm screwed this year. Everyone talks up El-Ninos like they are the best thing ever so it has to come from somewhere right? That is unless they are all NC/SC centered storms. El-Nino's are either duds here or tons of tiny snowfalls from what I have experienced. Of course no two are alike but I expect a lot more rain this winter and temps not to be as brutal. We seem to fare well here when it's a weak to moderate La-Nina but we did do well in 09-10, which was coming off a La-Nina going into an El- nino but that was closer to winter when it did than now.
 
whamby said:
What ENSO state is good for southern sliders... à la Jan '88, Jan '11? (good q for Gawx, I think... or anyone).
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That’s not easy to answer but what is easy to say is that a weak to moderate El Niño gives the SE US as a whole its best chance for a colder than average winter out of all ENSO. It doesn't mean it will necessarily be cold, however. And even if it is cold, that doesn’t necessarily mean wintry.
 
If there was any meteorological way to combine elements of 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018 together for 2018-2019 this would be the ultimate winter of our lifetimes. It's difficult to pick one specific winter to want a carbon copy of again because there a pros and cons to all of the years I listed. I would want the constant influence of the Southern stream we had in 2009/10 so there's always a great opportunity to have a wintry threat. I would want a repeat of our White Christmas from 2010, only bigger and more widespread, something similar to December 2017 where most of the Southern region of the US gets in on the fun from TX to FL to the Carolinas. I would like to have some of the cold from 2010/11 and 2013/14 only more spread out throughout the season and not in short, intense bursts. Finally if all else fails I would LOVE to have that 6 week period of wintry threats we had in 2017/2018 only this time without our storm(s) getting obliterated to pieces before it makes it out of the Southwest region. I still think back every now and then how much potential was wasted last winter from late December to mid January and how epic Christmas to New Years Eve/Day COULD have been.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
If there was any meteorological way to combine elements of 2009-2010, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018 together for 2018-2019 this would be the ultimate winter of our lifetimes. It's difficult to pick one specific winter to want a carbon copy of again because there a pros and cons to all of the years I listed. I would want the constant influence of the Southern stream we had in 2009/10 so there's always a great opportunity to have a wintry threat. I would want a repeat of our White Christmas from 2010, only bigger and more widespread, something similar to December 2017 where most of the Southern region of the US gets in on the fun from TX to FL to the Carolinas. I would like to have some of the cold from 2010/11 and 2013/14 only more spread out throughout the season and not in short, intense bursts. Finally if all else fails I would LOVE to have that 6 week period of wintry threats we had in 2017/2018 only this time without our storm(s) getting obliterated to pieces before it makes it out of the Southwest region. I still think back every now and then how much potential was wasted last winter from late December to mid January and how epic Christmas to New Years Eve/Day COULD have been.
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Don’t forget the toasty Feb and cold March and April, with Roxboro getting snow into April, that was fun!:mad:
 
I probably should add that I have found El Niño’s in general to be somewhat more conducive for Miller A’s than non-El Nino’s. But I think that most winters will have a few at the minimum. Of course, not all wintertime Miller A’s will be prolific SE US wintry precip producers.
 
GaWx said:
I probably should add that I have found El Niño’s in general to be somewhat more conducive for Miller A’s than non-El Nino’s. But I think that most winters will have a few at the minimum. Of course, not all wintertime Miller A’s will be prolific SE US wintry precip producers.
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I will second that last sentence.


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whatalife said:
I will second that last sentence.


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Yep. Lots of them are NC or SC specials and N GA and western Carolinas storms. It all comes down to path. If it's close to the coast, its a Carolina storm. If it's inland, GA and the mountains as well as the western Carolinas get it. Every once in awhile, we will get a southern slider into a Miller A that benefits everyone. Also of course some are complete duds and it could be too warm.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep. Lots of them are NC or SC specials and N GA and western Carolinas storms. It all comes down to path. If it's close to the coast, its a Carolina storm. If it's inland, GA and the mountains as well as the western Carolinas get it. Every once in awhile, we will get a southern slider into a Miller A that benefits everyone. Also of course some are complete duds and it could be too warm.
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It’s nice to be excited about a possible El Niño but their are no guarantees. Sadly for us in the midlands we get the short in of the stick a lot of the times. While last yrs wasn’t an El Niño it does prove my point.


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1300m said:
I want one more shot in my lifetime at a storm like 12/26/2010. RDU was a 6 hour earlier shift in H5 phase timing from getting a 30" snowstorm...
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Wait are you serious? I was eleven years old back then, I never realized that storm was that close to being big lol

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1300m said:
6 consecutive runs the European model painted 20" or more of snowfall at RDU, with some runs over 30". Even the CMC and UKMET were on board for a few runs.
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I would've loved to be on the weather boards back then lol

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1300m said:
6 consecutive runs the European model painted 20" or more of snowfall at RDU, with some runs over 30". Even the CMC and UKMET were on board for a few runs.

P.S. Even as it were, it was a pretty big deal by NC standards. Awesome, textbook deformation band near the I-95 corridor.

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I remember this one quite well. :)
 
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