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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

For what it's worth:

Hazardous Weather Outlook​

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
329 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-110830-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Wilson-
329 AM EST Thu Feb 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A light accumulation of snow is possible Sunday as a strong upper-
level system moves through the region. At this time, minor impacts
are expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$
 
6z EPS with the slightest of improvements and mostly across NC
1644904800-JON7yEWagDg.png

1644904800-LrXNChx8mG0.png
 
One thing that could help is the likelihood that precip comes in faster than expected which is usually the situation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see at least something onset in that case.
 
iGRXY said:
One thing that could help is the likelihood that precip comes in faster than expected which is usually the situation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see at least something onset in that case.
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Not in this situation, there is no cold air in place so earlier arrival means mild rain which might not be bad, get it in out and over with
 
Could be a good storm if it’s earlier and melts by mid day Sunday so no issues Monday if we can get enough wind and sun to dry things up. Earlier Sunday would be best for snow 1am
 
metwannabe said:
Not in this situation, there is no cold air in place so earlier arrival means mild rain which might not be bad, get it in out and over with
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I’m speaking more towards the mountains. I really don’t expect much for anyone outside of them at this point. Too much fluctuations and no consistency showing any type on wintry weather for everyone outside of those typical areas. Unless we just see a major swing within the next 48 hours, I’m not expecting anyone outside WNC getting much of anything until you get into the mid Atlantic
 
NCSNOW said:
World Famous New short range RDPS, matches up exactly with the 0z Euro from last night. This is as far out as she goes:
prateptype.conus.png


GFS is on a deserted Island at the moment. Hopefully today we can swing this all in a positive direction.
This is the last shot for the season IMBY. I'm pretty convinced. Yes it can snow in late March/early April here. But the odds of that happening are significantly reduced 2022 as we want have enough time to work out of the end of Feb pattern shuffle and Climo puts the foot on our throat as March unfolds.
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Yeah man I agree things can change but I see this as our last shot for the season. After the first two weeks of March u can forget about it and the indices look like lat Feb early March may be warm so we'll see.
 
iGRXY said:
I’m speaking more towards the mountains. I really don’t expect much for anyone outside of them at this point. Too much fluctuations and no consistency showing any type on wintry weather for everyone outside of those typical areas. Unless we just see a major swing within the next 48 hours, I’m not expecting anyone outside WNC getting much of anything until you get into the mid Atlantic
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I still think an inch is possible for us foothills peeps. The euro ensembles looked better.
 
It's too bad the southern energy isn't a tad stronger and more consolidated....this could have been.

USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_069.gif
 
KyloG said:
It's too bad the southern energy isn't a tad stronger and more consolidated....this could have been.

View attachment 113265
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It looked better early on, much better than previous run but then went to crap, maybe........ nah who are we kidding

1644503984282.gif
 
SNOWMANN said:
Yeah man I agree things can change but I see this as our last shot for the season. After the first two weeks of March u can forget about it and the indices look like lat Feb early March may be warm so we'll see.
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We’ve got another month left of potential season, let’s not throw it all away just yet.
 
GFS is a big outlier to every model right now, it’s probably wrong, this event is happening midday Sunday, during the worst possible diurnal timing, with extremely marginal sfc temps, I’d go with some rain mixed with wet snow, no accums right now outside the mountains, can’t hug a outlier
 
Last frame of the nam 3km really has some moisture increasing in that central Alabama southern Mississippi corridor. Could just be a big poof the next run though. But nonetheless intrigued
 
Zander98al said:
Last frame of the nam 3km really has some moisture increasing in that central Alabama southern Mississippi corridor. Could just be a big poof the next run though. But nonetheless intrigued
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TT doesn’t show that much moisture to me in Al/MS.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Yeah man I agree things can change but I see this as our last shot for the season. After the first two weeks of March u can forget about it and the indices look like lat Feb early March may be warm so we'll see.
Click to expand...
It’s February 10th and I don’t care what the models show out into March. You can never say it’s our last shot at snow with still over a month to go of winter. Even in a warmer pattern all it takes is one quick cold shot to meet up with some heavier moisture as we head towards spring. I think it’s easy to forget how we usually thread the needle after having a month where the moisture was running into cold air instead of chasing it. I still think someone could score a big early March snow this year. ?❄️?❄️
 
metwannabe said:
About time we got one good NAM'ing, that's about as good as it gets lol

1644818400-HWqZaQda8wM.png
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This gives GSO ~1" of snow, which would mean 6 notable wintry precip events in 6 weeks there (extremely rare)!

**Corrected....would make 6 in 6 weeks, not 7 in 7 weeks. They've had so many that I lost count lol. Sorry for the error.
 
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