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Ukraine

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pcbjr said:
Sounds like a lunatic ... the best response would be to open up every oil and gas field in the US and pump as hard and fast as possible starting now ... this whole thing boils down to Russia's need for oil income (IMHO) ...
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We should never have stopped doing that. Shutting down Keystone, revoking drilling rights and forcing movement toward "renewables" is going to make the west very weak. Now Europe has no viable path to energy independence and must depend on Russian oil and gas. If we had strong production, we could make up for the Russian portion, but not now. Russia has been given the "green" light to take whatever territory they want.
 
weatherfide said:
We should never have stopped doing that. Shutting down Keystone, revoking drilling rights and forcing movement toward "renewables" is going to make the west very weak. Now Europe has no viable path to energy independence and must depend on Russian oil and gas. If we had strong production, we could make up for the Russian portion, but not now. Russia has been given the "green" light to take whatever territory they want.
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To make matters worse, Germany is very soon shutting down their last nuclear power plants, making them even more dependent on (Russian) natural gas for energy. Absolute insanity.
 
weatherfide said:
We should never have stopped doing that. Shutting down Keystone, revoking drilling rights and forcing movement toward "renewables" is going to make the west very weak. Now Europe has no viable path to energy independence and must depend on Russian oil and gas. If we had strong production, we could make up for the Russian portion, but not now. Russia has been given the "green" light to take whatever territory they want.
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In two weeks, if we wanted, we could flood the market with oil and gas and drive prices so low that Russia would be bankrupt in 6 months ... even a maniac like Putin would realize he was in a lose/lose situation ... all the US would need to do is announce that gas/oil is wide open and then follow through for a long duration ... the result would be positive in a blink ...
 
superjames1992 said:
To make matters worse, Germany is very soon shutting down their last nuclear power plants, making them even more dependent on (Russian) natural gas for energy. Absolute insanity.
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Are they fueling their economy with natural gas? I'm not a fan of traditional nuclear plants, but apparently there are safer and less polluting designs available. Couldn't they transition to newer tech? It leaves Germany very vulnerable, and as a NATO member, could be the first domino to fall.
 
weatherfide said:
Are they fueling their economy with natural gas? I'm not a fan of traditional nuclear plants, but apparently there are safer and less polluting designs available. Couldn't they transition to newer tech? It leaves Germany very vulnerable, and as a NATO member, could be the first domino to fall.
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Well, they’re going to have to power their economy with something with nuclear plants going offline, and that is likely going to be more natural gas (as renewable sources won’t be ready to completely replace other sources for some years to come). Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel out there to generate power as far as I’m aware of, but nuclear is the cleanest way to produce power.
 
superjames1992 said:
To make matters worse, Germany is very soon shutting down their last nuclear power plants, making them even more dependent on (Russian) natural gas for energy. Absolute insanity.
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Germany made a massive miscalculation going 100% renewable. Owned by Russia now, because without their oil, Germany economy goes poof.
 
pcbjr said:
In two weeks, if we wanted, we could flood the market with oil and gas and drive prices so low that Russia would be bankrupt in 6 months ... even a maniac like Putin would realize he was in a lose/lose situation ... all the US would need to do is announce that gas/oil is wide open and then follow through for a long duration ... the result would be positive in a blink ...
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yep US oil producers have had the ability to increase supply the entire time, but they are choosing to take profits....they love the higher prices as much as Putin and OPEC.,....
 
pcbjr said:
Sounds like a lunatic ... the best response would be to open up every oil and gas field in the US and pump as hard and fast as possible starting now ... this whole thing boils down to Russia's need for oil income (IMHO) ...
Click to expand...

The #1 European need for Russian energy is natural gas rather than oil. The US was near record high NG production as recently as December. So, in essence, the US has been pumping NG as hard as ever. Check out the graph and table here showing this:

U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (Million Cubic Feet)

www.eia.gov

And then from here:

US gas production drop persists, tightening supply and increasing call on storage

Following a precipitous drop in US natural gas production earlier this month, output has continued to stumble in late January, tightening the domestic market balance just as colder weather arrives. Wi
www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com


“After approaching a prior record high at over 96.3 Bcf/d in late December, US gas production has tumbled since the start of the new year, falling by over 4 Bcf/d to average just 92.2 Bcf/d in January.”

The main reason it fell 4.1 bcf/day in January from December is because January was so much colder than Dec and it lead to “freeze-offs” largely in the Permian Basin:

Texas natural gas prices drift lower, despite Permian Basin production freeze-offs

Forecasts calling for warmer weather and weaker gas demand across Texas appear to be easing concern in the spot gas markets over a potential supply crunch resulting from a recent drop in Permian Basin
www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com

That cold wx related drop in production is obviously temporary and production is expected to get back to near record levels. March production per day should be significantly higher than January based on much warmer weather, especially in the Permian Basin. I’m not sure where Feb will be because of the strong cold about to hit there.


There has been a dramatic increase in LNG exports to Europe from the US due to higher European needs:

www.reuters.com

Europe remains top destination for U.S. LNG for the third month

Europe's call for U.S. liquefied natural gas continues to run hot in February and is poised to remain the top destination for U.S. shipments for the third month in a row, according to mid-month Refinitiv vessel tracking data on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

US LNG exports are at record highs and these will continue rising. The US is in a position to help Europe more through further increases in LNG exports should Russia cut off what they supply Europe.
 
What sanctions are we gonna play? Seriously . Ask for our waiver, greenlight we just signed to the Nord Stream pipeline back. When you arent energy independent, you are at the mercy of your supplier. Unfortunately for the US we are set to be a net importer,not exporter of energy over the next 1-2 months.
 
Here you go. Putin's speech made it clear that this will not end here.

 
We postured here in NC, similar to how I handle incoming severe weather events. 4 cases of OG Cold Weather rations 10/24 exp. arrived on Friday from CA. Added to 4 cases on deck, topped off water and made sure cash on hand was sufficient.

Wife and I were both US Marines before and after 9/11. Watch Generation Kill (HBO), RCT 1.

US without launching a missile flexed the comm backbone of our triad this weekend. Confirmed by the number of white tops in flight at any given time. Trust me, China noticed.
 
metwannabe said:
That'll show'em
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What else we going to do, get into a shooting war with Russia? Sanctions will hurt, especially with the people at home...Putin made that speech today for the Russia people, going into the Ukraine is vastly unpopular in Russia, like less than 10% support. No one wants this, and when the bodies start coming home its going to get even worse for Putin at home. This was a old fashion the west is evil rah rah speech meant to fire the home folks up.....

Putin will be foolish to go for all of Ukraine, The US made sure it moved enough stuff around that Putin knows we can hit him hard if we need to. The big hope here is the Ukrainian army gives a good showing.....I think a big push towards Kiev would get a bigger response from the west than just occupying Donbas.
 
en.m.wikipedia.org

Boeing RC-135 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Over the weekend, 3 of the varient which control our ballistic missile fleet including submarines were observed over the continental US at any given time, US has 8 in the fleet for this purpose excluding other variants of the RC-135. We were prepared for a prempt strike like we should have been.
 
NCSNOW said:
Germany made a massive miscalculation going 100% renewable. Owned by Russia now, because without their oil, Germany economy goes poof.
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Yep. They still have massive coal reserves, so they better start digging it up! By, by global climate change. War has a way of focusing your mind on what's truly important and real.
 
Ukraine should have never gave up controll of the nukes leftover. We told em , along with Nato we had their back if ever need be. Just like we told Afghanistan interpertors, allies we'd have theres. Iran, China licking their chops right now. We are peceived as a weak , once was nation on the international stage now.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Sadly, China's and Russia's military see us as their greatest enemy while Biden's top brass see climate change as the enemy.
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Fossil fuels and natural resources are part of the conversation, geo political in nature is in scope but admin specifics take it elsewhere. Thanks.
 
If Russia's leadership wants to invade Ukraine, there's really not much the US or NATO can do to effectively stop it IMO, based on geography and current geopolitics. Crippling sanctions cut both ways. Europe doesn't want to lose access to cheap gas, for example. Russia shares a long border with Ukraine and knows that area well from the old Soviet Union days. If the US tried to get involved to physically put a stop to an invasion, they would have to cross a hostile Atlantic Ocean to reinforce their forces in Europe, whereas Russia is right next door to move military hardware troops, planes, missiles, etc to. Short of a nuclear exchange, I honestly don't see how the US is supposed to "stop Putin" here. Maybe I'm missing something?
 
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