• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

The center is possibly benefiting from some land interaction.....if this thing can build and maintain a solid center then maybe we see higher gust further inland....still I think gust over 50 anywhere away from the coast will be rare....unless a lot changes.
 
Downeastnc said:
The center is possibly benefiting from some land interaction.....if this thing can build and maintain a solid center then maybe we see higher gust further inland....still I think gust over 50 anywhere away from the coast will be rare....unless a lot changes.
Click to expand...
One of those convective cells could gust to 60 mph
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah and it's still moving to the left it would seem
Click to expand...

The trough steering Ophelia has become deeper and more negatively tilted in recent model runs. The orientation of this trough, along with the blocking from the subtropical high, seems to be pulling Ophelia westward. The upper level energy (represented by dry air) is digging all the way around the core as the trough digs under the system, and the COC is pivoting towards the west. This has the hallmarks of an occluded baroclonic system that is about to reach its peak before decaying.
 
lexxnchloe said:



The center seems to be getting better defined. They had some poor recon planning
Click to expand...

OPHELIA_AF302_0216A_full.png
 
A little bit of expanding colder cloud tops SW of the center, looks like some of the dryer air has been pushed away from the center as well so it seems to be getting ready to try another burst of convection which would be well timed with the recon headed that way....
 
Downeastnc said:
A little bit of expanding colder cloud tops SW of the center, looks like some of the dryer air has been pushed away from the center as well so it seems to be getting ready to try another burst of convection which would be well timed with the recon headed that way....
Click to expand...
I THINK you get 50+ east
 
Highest wind gusts on the coast are going to be anywhere from 50-70MPH. If Ophelia does make it to Hurricane Strength, none of that will make it on the coast.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I THINK you get 50+ east
Click to expand...

I dunno only way I think we see gust 50+ inland is with the core and only if it can really organize the last 6 hrs or so it has over water....they are barely gusting 50-60 right on the water so unless there is a well defined core that can hold together till it gets to me I doubt we see anything higher than 40-50 IMBY.....I guess there could be gust 60-80 in the band out over the water....recon will tell the tale here soon enough.

Edit to add that once it gets inland there could be some weird baroclinic stuff that happens that lets us mix down some bigger gust....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top